Can i ever fold floped straight, flush draw, straight flush draw?

Jason RobisonJason Robison Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
1/2 NL live i just had to rebuy $200
Villain $210 TAG plays his cards pretty face up and doesn't make to many calling mistakes. Opens about 12% and is not very polarized. I don't think i have seen a bluff from him in about 2 hours of play.

EP2 limp
MP2 limp
Villain HJ limp
Hero Butt 6c 8c $12; all call
flop 7c 9c 10s
check, check, V bets $15
Hero raise to $45, fold, fold, call
turn 2c
Villain $95
Hero all in, snap
River brick Villain shows Ac 3c

So again can i ever fold here. I Know he has a flush and most likely nut flush from the way he plays. I wanted to fold but that just didn't feel right. With my flopped straight, beat by J8, and only two outer on the river to what i am reading as the nut flush can i make a hero fold on the turn?????? was i calling to much knowing that this guy had the nut flush and playing his cards face up??????? Also, i know i was light on the 3 bet and beat myself up about that already, should have been min $65.

Best Answers

Answers

  • star681star681 Red Chipper Posts: 399 ✭✭
    edited January 25
    u can believe that turn bet, ur mostly beat.......but id prob be there to. after getting invoved pre,,,,,,,which if 3 callers ,,,then maybe its a game where 64s, is not neccary. could stick to an 11.1 to 6% vpip and just let math work bringing a gun to a knife fight, and let ur superior range take care of most things at this apperently loose game u imo should play it very simple and tighter,,,,6,8s is a tool that is not neccarry here. and ill add, you just rebought, so...unless ur a yogi ur nervous system brain is firing in an area that scintificly ur unable to make good decions in this just rebought situation. I would take a walk outside and buy someting online for fun unrelated to poker. then come back to table and know it is imparitive that u win the next hand u enter. and tighten to aqo or better 1st in , postion, take it down, and then and only then will ur mental clarity return.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,282 ✭✭✭✭
    Someone is making bet sizing mistakes
  • star681star681 Red Chipper Posts: 399 ✭✭
    the way to play those little suited c ,,,,,in this game,,,,,is to fold them, there is no bet sizing to counter that fact
  • Jason RobisonJason Robison Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    Star, 68suited is part of my game, trying to stay balanced. nothing wrong with it in this game. Don't play a nitty game, plus when we do the math how many times does villain have a flush here. Like i said he is not very polarized and only opening about 12%. That gives him a range of roughly 99-66, A9s-A3s, JTs-76s, J9s, J8S, KTs ,QTs-Q9s, AT(s), KQ(s), KJ(s), QJ(s). Pre-flop I am 4-1 dog best 25% of the time but improve to best 97+% against his range on the flop. Turn Drops us to 92%, And NO, I REPEAT NO FLUSH DRAW FOR VILLAIN 87% of the time. When i say i know he has the nut flush it is a strong feeling but that is why i ask the question I did. Are we saying that we can fold on the turn when our hand is good 92% of the time and have 89% equity?????????

    Jeff, Now what about jamming? Why are we shutting down this hand when we have 84% equity on the flop??? i could have bet $65 -$75 and still give him good odds to call on the flop but jamming possibly gives up our huge equity. Doing away with the maniac situation of him showing us the winner, don't we want the call here?

    Don'tknowWhen, when you say half the deck will counterfeit my hand that is if he is opening wider and like i said he is only opening about 12%. If we put him on every possibly hand, sure, but the range assigned, that does include his hand, is reasonable and what i put him on in this game. Also my plan to make money on this hand was to hit a straight or flush and stack trips or top pair top kick, Had i not flopped a straight i prob. would have check call/fold depending on equity and flop texture; rarely shove a bluff in such a loose game unless i know i can get it through. As played i think he continues with a lot here, 90% if given odds up to 2 to 1. So there is a good chance of him calling a shove with trips, two pair, flush draw, and even maybe, top pair so 36% of the time.

    Overall, Can we fold such HUGE equity????????? do we go with our gut sometimes and yes i would say make a HERO FOLD!


  • Jason RobisonJason Robison Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    Also when i say "not very polarized" i mean polarized none the less, just didn't write it right. Knew what i was think just didn't come out right.
  • star681star681 Red Chipper Posts: 399 ✭✭
    opps, i just reread hand.......very difficult release. Hence , thats why the drop pre in This game (3 limp calls) is better. the stright makes money, the flush u own urself,only good for agg semibluff and taking it down , only losing on when u mke a flush, or push flop,,,,,i dont know, id fold pre, but if it works for u more power to u, or if ur Ak is making more because tbeh know u plzy 86s thats good to i guess, . i find it interesting u said 12% vpip or a hud stat , thats good , most live 1/2 dont do that. great if u can hud 8 people live to tnat accuaracy. if u can, then u should be fine and chalk it up as "it was just one hand" and not a big deal
  • Jason RobisonJason Robison Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    edited January 31
    opening hands like this and raising keeps my opponents guessing when i show down. It helps me get paid off on big hands and keeps them guessing as to what my range is. If someone is not opening suited gapers and sticking to a range that is predictable they are easily exploited.
    It is hard for me to say if i make money on this hand as i think that i contributes to me making money on other hands and bluffs. If i hit I can usually take down a big pot. The flush coming in and the open STFD, even if only 2 outer, if we are even behind here, is where i run into the problem. Am i beat when he bets out on the turn? is it a good bluff card? what other hands could he be defending, top pair top kick? top with straight draw? lots of other possibilities that the hand beats.
    Also keeping track live of what he is opening is not that hard and the 12% is his range of hands not VPIP. VPIP is easily tracked live however using donkey tracker. Simple Mobil app. although it can be hard and distracting at first.
    As for making money, i did loose money last year and i have been trying a lot of new things to transform my game that i believe has translated to this loss. However, by not investing the money and trying new things i don't think i can progress from where i am making scraps to making a living at poker. The loss does have me conflicted as to whether i should tighten up more or keep exploring with keeping balanced. This site suggests not shutting down high equity hands and letting them play out and using variance to make money; it seems to have lost me money as i see people making bad calls and drawing out on me more. Very conflicted as to what my overall strategy should be and how to improve my bottom line.

    Thank You to everyone for helping me, i do value the debate and time you are investing in me. Much appreciated.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Your original post does not contain the pot size, which basically says all there is to know about this hand and your strategy.
  • Jason RobisonJason Robison Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    Persuadeo, the pot size is in the question i just didn't do the math
    $52 in the pot pre-flop, Hero $188 V $198 left behind
    $162 in the pot on the flop Hero $143 V $153 left behind
    V bets $95 on the turn, $257 in the pot giving me 2.7to1, only leaving $48 behind so I jam $143, snap.
    Hope this helps.
    Jeff, I know my bet sizing needs help in this situation, however pre flop i do think that a low to mid suited gaper plays fine in this situation (multi way) and i don't want to over inflate the pot pre flop, leaving me with no room to maneuver. It is 1/3 and i went 3x the BB plus $1 for every limp $12. had this been 98s, JTs or a hand with more equity, i would have popped it more per. At the time when i made the flop bet i was thinking about pricing him in as i didn't want him to go anywhere. Then, as has been happening, i get drawn out on.
    This seem to be the case when i go range V range, play my equity and let variance take the lead.
    So what am i really asking here. Am i playing correctly, will in time variance push me ahead or do i need to be making folds in these situations? Am i understanding variance right?????? This is the first time that i have let it be such a huge part of my game, run my bankroll; i am now loosing money! the concept seams right just not playing out the way that i had hoped. would like to start taking money home with me instead of leaving it for fish food.
    Again, Thank You for you time and good advice.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yes, I know you didn't do the math - but I'm not the one who needs help. Figure out what my point is and you will make a great leap ahead.
  • star681star681 Red Chipper Posts: 399 ✭✭
    edited January 31
    I play 1/2 before tournaments to see what the trends are. i find it highly unpredictable and difficult to beat by thinking. if they dont know what thier thinking then how will u get close. HENCE, u must tightin way way up and use postion and percentage form, not combos math. simple but effective. Or and this may suit u better , move to 2/5 with a 400 buyin one time, vs rebuy at 1/2 200 200. then u can think, exploit, your 6,8s will be acrually employed...ect ect, move up to 2/5, chill blinding out for your first 20 hours, watch some showdowns and see what they were thinking,,,,because u can actually see a thought process at 2/5, ,,,,u might do better at 2/5 then 1/2.
    2."'' This site suggests not shutting down high equity hands and letting them play out and using variance to make money; it seems to have lost me money as i "and using variance to make money"''" where does this site say that?
  • Mr. DontMr. Dont Red Chipper Posts: 357 ✭✭✭
    When I comment or give 2cents to others HH post,
    I tend to
    1) excludes online hands since I have almost no idea or knowledge about it, well almost same for live too
    2) excludes pot odds, equity calculation, percentile...etc other members who has expertise have already or will post...

    Therefore, Ill add some my personal pint of view as live player as if Im at your table

    1) you had to re buy,,,, you just lost your stack or nearly lost, so your image will look like to others...
    2) villain played his hands pretty much face up, not making a mixing up mistake,,, so how could you lose to villain when you know his hands...
    3) your bet sizing, needless to say, and shove over his turn bet when his committed,,, you said he doesnt bluff??
    4) you know he has it, but it doesnt.feel right to let your hands go,,,, WTF???? If you did read, analysis, and you believed he didnt have it but you werr wrong, thats fine. But abobe statement just don't make sense to me...

    And last, yes you can fold anywhere if you know you got beat.

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,091 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 31
    At the time when i made the flop bet i was thinking about pricing him in as i didn't want him to go anywhere.

    A raise to $30 would have accomplished the same thing, so there's a little more to this, n'est-ce pas?
    i don't want to over inflate the pot pre flop, leaving me with no room to maneuver. It is 1/3 and i went 3x the BB plus $1 for every limp $12. had this been 98s, JTs or a hand with more equity, i would have popped it more per.

    You're thinking down the wrong track. The equity of 86s vs. 98s isn't really an issue in the bet sizing dept. in this situation. Other factors require your attention.
  • star681star681 Red Chipper Posts: 399 ✭✭
    edited February 1
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Your original post does not contain the pot size, which basically says all there is to know about this hand and your strategy.

    are you saying, and Im really just trying to understand seriously because I find your insights valuable and worthy of contemplation,,,,im to the point were i have to state when im not joking, ok serious attempt to learn: ill put myself out on a limb, i may be way off here but, i belueve ur saying:
    start. thinking "i have nothing (0) thus far invested in this pot,(fold= ev 0)(which is far better then-x
    therefore, is 8,6,s ........is rhere enough in the pot to make entery worthwhile.....and how much do they (limpers who could continue) have behind....And...will they call it offf, IF i make astright at the same time they make top2 or better, at the same time, and the turn diesnt ppair the board or flush down the toilet, . does the benifit justify the risk, even at this point in time, and by how much, to properly compensatefor .
    is it even worth entrey. thus importance of "pot size"
    for me 6,8s is a deep stsck hand, so for me stack sizes will matter mofe then intial pot size, but stacks have too be deep deep , or no 86s,,,,,,,,mosrly
    is that what your eluding to? or spr and implied odds ?/// help me understand this one @persuadeo
  • Jason RobisonJason Robison Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    persuadeo please de-riddle your post as i am a man living in some confusion. I have Lyme Disease and this causes me "brain fog" that does not allow me to fully see that that is right in front of my face sometimes. Please help as i do value your time and input and have pondered it for some time now and come up empty.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • star681star681 Red Chipper Posts: 399 ✭✭
    I also wanted to understand the concept?

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