Bottom set vs 2x pot AI on the turn?

Danny MDanny M Red Chipper Posts: 353 ✭✭✭
Did I make a mistake or is folding turn bad?

Hero ($240) is Button :4s:4c
UTG ($150) limps $2.
MP ($300) raises $10
Hero calls. UTG calls.
($33) Flop is :Ad:Td:4h
UTG checks. MP bets $25.
Hero calls. UTG calls. (I didn't raise because I didn't want to lose the overcaller UTG and figured I had a pretty good lock on the hand and besides diamonds not a whole lot of scary cards can fall on the turn as only gutshots could fill or the T pairs)
($108) Turn is :7c
UTG checks. MP shoves for $205 effective.
Hero?

That was going to be my move if villain bet again... when he beats me to it I'm now concerned that I'm behind...

What do I beat?
9 combos of AT only 3 suited combos
12 combos of AK (I think I have to give him this hand to make this call)
AxQd AxJd?
7 combos KQd KJd QJd 98s
I can't see any more bluffs...
So essentially 22 combos -- What do you think? Do you get away OTT?
Hero calls. UTG folds. MP has :As:Ac and rivers an A for good measure

However, I was getting stacked anyways if villain bets $80 on turn and shoves river when the diamond misses I'm never folding a FH unless it's on like AAKQ4 or AATT4...




Comments

  • zampana1970zampana1970 Red Chipper Posts: 549 ✭✭✭
    Never fold IMO. All that beats you is cooler AA and TT and all those other combos are possible depending on how LAG UTG is. Any read at the time?
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    I didn't look at the spoiler yet.

    MP raised and then cbet. Does this player have a tighter or narrower pre-flop raising range? Does this player cbet most hands or mostly hands that hit? Those questions, IMO, would be the key ones to determining whether or not to raise the flop. Remember: you flopped a set, and the original raiser has you covered. I'd worry least about the UTG player: he limp-called pre-flop and is the small stack. Your target is the bigger stack. Odds are that I'd be more strongly considering a raise here: Ax will likely call since you could repping a draw, and draws would likely call since they have high equity.

    On the turn, you again have to consider the player type. Does this player look to protect against draws? Does this player tend to bet big his or her draws? Odds are that I'd calling: there are likely enough Ax or even KK hands (and maybe some draws, though that's less likely with Ad on the board) that would make this play. I wouldn't sweat it if V flopped a bigger set (turning a set is unlikely): Remember that you're at the top of your range; sometimes, V will be at the top of his.

    Danny M wrote: »
    However, I was getting stacked anyways if villain bets $80 on turn and shoves river when the diamond misses I'm never folding a FH unless it's on like AAKQ4 or AATT4...

    This, IMO, is gravely flawed thinking. You're deciding what do based on what you would have done had V made a different-sized bet on the turn?? "Had V bet $80, I probably would have gotten my stack in at some point anyway. So, since V is over-betting/shoving, I'll just get my stack in now." V is giving you information here based on V's bet-sizing. Responding as if it were a different scenario ignores that and is most likely a sign of lazy/tired/tilted thinking at the poker table.
  • Danny MDanny M Red Chipper Posts: 353 ✭✭✭
    edited January 2018
    Unfortunately, no reads. I think I'm shoving turn if villain just bet a normal size... I'm wondering if players often ship enough ATs AK, KQ KJ QJ 98d on AdTd47 for my call to be profitable.... I think I have to be good alot to make the call there... so you're saying I am ignoring villains bet sizing... I don't see hw
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Danny M wrote: »
    Unfortunately, no reads. I think I'm shoving turn if villain just bet a normal size... I'm wondering if players often ship enough ATs AK, KQ KJ QJ 98d on AdTd47 for my call to be profitable.... I think I have to be good alot to make the call there... so you're saying I am ignoring villains bet sizing... I don't see hw

    I think that we all agree that calling the turn -- or getting it all in on the turn -- is the wisest play.

    My comment about ignoring the bet-sizing is because you wrote something like you were going to get it all in on the turn had V bet $80 since you would have raised. You might have meant that as consolation for yourself -- sorry if I mis-read it differently! -- but it came off as if you were using that as part of your thought process in the hand (i.e., since I was going to get it in anyway, I'll just call his all-in).

    I'll give a bad example: You're in the BB with TT and $100. UTG raises to $10, 3 callers. You are planning to squeeze/shove when it gets to you. Surprisingly, SB raises to $100. SB is a classic nit, almost assuredly raising QQ+/AK here. You think to yourself, "Well, since I was going to get it all in anyway, I might as well call." Clearly flawed logic.

    Again, that's how I read your comment in your post, and the fact that V in your hand overbet/shoved tells you a lot more about V's range (or V!!) than if V had bet $80. If I was off on that, sorry!

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file