River raise too thin? + a spot where balance is an issue

Danny MDanny M Red Chipper Posts: 353 ✭✭✭
1/2 300bb effective

Hero is UTG with :Ac :Kc
Hero raises $6. Button calls. BB calls.
($19) Flop is :6c :5c :4h
BB checks. Hero bets $12. Button calls.
BB raises $40. Hero calls. Button folds.
($109) Turn is :Qc
Hero checks. BB bets $55. Hero calls.
($219). River is :5s
Hero checks (and wishes he would have raised the turn now). BB bets $219. Hero is never folding but does a raise accomplish anything?
Villain had :8s :7h

I know there is definitely an argument for raising the turn for value however what bluffs do we have in this spot after calling the X/R? Are we floating flop X/R with AcX in order to bluff if the 3rd club hits all the time? May we use AxAc KxKc AcQx as a bluffing hand on this board even though we are sometimes ahead of some of villains x/r range OTF?

If hero raises the turn with 30 combos of value...
AK AJ AT A9 A8 A7 A4 A3 A2 KJ KT K9 JT J9 J8 T9 98 87 clubs + QQ 66 55 44

What bluffs do you guys have here if you raise the turn?

Comments

  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 294 ✭✭✭
    Position seems wrong here, you are in position of BB, so you can't be the one check calling here.

    I'll assume you meant the button. You are abosolutely correct that raising here accomplishes little against a good player. You have both A and K of clubs, so the best hand you beat is Q high flush. And you do not represent any bluffs here. Any raise on the river here is effectively a shove, a good player will see that he bet big on the river and got raised, he was probably up against a boat, he'll be able to get away from his hands that's worse than yours.

    But if you think your opponent is fishy, because "lol I can't fold a flush and I've committed half of my stack already", go ahead and shove.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,137 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Why can't you fold the river? Pretty bad card for you. Removes some sets from bb range but also gives 54s and 65s boats as well as 44 and 66.

    Bb check raised the flop over a cbet and a caller on a wet board, which favors his range completing from the BB. I dont think 88-JJ raise here. You block hands like Ac7c, so leaves hands like 9c7c, sets, 2 pairs, and straights. I don't see a small flush or straight bombing the river after it pairs. He's repping a boat here in my eyes. I guess he can turn a small flush into a bluff and try and get you off a hand like AcAx or KcKx but wouldn't he want value?

    You can probably tighten up your utg range. Not sure Jc8c is profitable or even Jc9c.

    Imo calling around $150 or less makes sense. Calling PSB feels like im burning money based on villains line and sizing.

    To answer the title. Yes river raise a bit to thin. I think its one of those things where you can do it with AcAh and boats but not flushes. If it was a small bet as stated above then i think i we can raise fold. Stacks started with $600 effective so by the river you have 600 - 6 - 40 - 55 =$499. River ($219) if v bet something like $120 i think clicking it back is fine maybe even making it like $280 but feels sick to raise fold the river with nut flush, but i don't see them shoving with less than a boat.
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 294 ✭✭✭
    @Austin you absolutely can't fold the river here, even for a PSB. Hero in this hand significantly under rep his hand, to the V it looks like H has an over pair to the flop that turned a flush draw. There are 2 combos of 56s and 1 combo of 45s, plus 7 combos of flopped sets that's only 10 combos total that beat us. There are plenty of straights, flushes, and bluffs (pair+straight draw/flush draw) V can have to make a PSB, because it doesn't look like we have a flush nor a boat by checking twice.

    To raise or not depending on how fishy the V is, but folding is definitely out of the question.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,137 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    @Austin you absolutely can't fold the river here, even for a PSB. Hero in this hand significantly under rep his hand, to the V it looks like H has an over pair to the flop that turned a flush draw. There are 2 combos of 56s and 1 combo of 45s, plus 7 combos of flopped sets that's only 10 combos total that beat us. There are plenty of straights, flushes, and bluffs (pair+straight draw/flush draw) V can have to make a PSB, because it doesn't look like we have a flush nor a boat by checking twice.

    To raise or not depending on how fishy the V is, but folding is definitely out of the question.

    I think you missed read the line a little bit. Hero didn't check call twice. Hero is IP vs the BB, so he is not really under repping his hand besides the flat call on the turn vs a half size pot bet.

    I think hero looks like he has an over pair or a flush here. Over pair doesn't really have to have a club in the hand.

    I think vs a nit you may find a fold on the river because a nit is not check raising a flush draw over two people. If v has a low flush what does he hope to accomplish with a PSB? Does he expect an over pair to call? Would have to be pretty stick based on what BB is repping. Would be better if we had like Ac9c so we don't block Kcxc. Hes left with only a couple flush combos, probably equivalent to set combos+boats.

    If you take out 1 gappers
    87
    98
    T9
    JT
    1 gappers
    97
    T8
    J9
    7 combos of flushes? 10 combos of boats

    Maybe some over played straights (3 combos of 87s) 1 combo of 9h7h.

    1\2 online is not my game so I can't speak for the player pool, but should be a polarized bet and on this run out its heavily weighted towards value. I guess if your 50\50 on combos you lose to and beat then you can't fold because your getting 2:1. Have to know more about the player.
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 294 ✭✭✭
    @Austin we still need OP to clear up the positions here. He said the V was in the BB, but the action he described indicates he was check calling. So I assumed he meant button.

    Even if the hero was IP, it would still be a call. Even if we assume the V has no bluffs here, the pot is offering 2:1, we still beat enough value combos to make the call.
  • Danny MDanny M Red Chipper Posts: 353 ✭✭✭
    edited February 11
    @Austin I think if we fold the nut flush we may be overfolding unless villain is a nit... When effective stacks are 250bb I play J9 or J8s+ not always but with some frequency from UTG or MP provided I'm not getting punished for it... definitely not opening these hands with 100bb or if a shorter stack is at the table but I think they become profitable due to the stack depth and my range advantage/playstyle and if villain is paying attention I'm not getting too out of line as I'm playing about 25/20 vpip most sessions if villain has a hud on me--not too loose for 6-max...
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,137 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @Danny M i wil open J9s but not J8s. Its only a couple hands i would drop. I will fold like 87s utg at 100bb and open J10s but deeper go as low as 65s. As you said depends on playing style. Lower end of straights, low flushes, bottom two pair etc can still be tough to play oop.

    Do you have hand break down by position? I'm sure people can tell us over a couple million hands if their profitable or not. I'm less worried about board coverage on anonymous tables without a hud or small sample. Probably just nit it up and play more tables.

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