River: call or fold with top 2 vs. overbet-shove for $800+ -- and other in-hand decisions

moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,755 ✭✭✭✭
While I'm most curious about your thoughts on what I should do on the river, I would deeply appreciate other thoughts along the way in this hand.

BACKGROUND
1/3, live, 1:00AM in the morning during the WSOP tourney in the casino. Lots of new faces at the tables and lots of action.

V in this hand is a drunk woman. She is in town for the tourney; I have never played with her before. We have been at the table for a few hours. She built a large stack (~$650) mostly calling and betting light against the player to her right. Any time that she thinks that she is ahead, she gets giddy, giggly, and chatty -- and will almost always show her cards afterward. She has bet big on the river with fourth pair against the other player and been right, laughing all the way.

In another hand, she called $400 pre-flop against four (!) all-ins from one loose player, one typical reg, one TAG, and one super-nit. She had ATs, rationalized out loud that she couldn't really fold at that point with all the money in the pot, and rivered a K for the nut straight. That brought her stack to around $1,400.

Pre-flop, she calls widely but has yet to 3-bet a single time except for aces.


PRE-FLOP
UTG straddles to $6
MP1 (V, ~$1,100; Hero has her covered) calls
MP2 calls
Hero ( :Ad :Qh) raises to $35.
Only V calls

FLOP ($80 after rake): :Ac :9s :8d
V checks
Hero bets $50
Rationale: V has shown a tendency to call if she hits almost anything. She could have all Ax to TT, JJ to T9, 87, JT, 76 in her pre-flop calling range that will likely continue here while being behind me.

V raises to $100
Hero calls $50
1) Thoughts here after V min-raises the flop? I don't really consider folding. Is calling or raising preferable?


TURN ($280): :2h
V checks
Hero bets $100
2) Thoughts here after the turn is checked to me?
V calls


RIVER ($480): :Qs
V shoves (~$835)
V gets giddy here. She boldly says that she has me beat. I tank. I tell her that, on the flop, I thought that she had 98 (I didn't really think that she did). She replied (and there is no reason in the world to think that she is lying) that she would never call 98 pre-flop. After a bit, she says that knows that I don't even have an ace, so I can't call light. That is often a tell of a monster; on the other hand, she has been entirely straight-forward in her comments, and there is no reason to think that she is misdirecting here. I continue to tank. Two players on the other side of the table say, loud enough for V and me to hear, that they don't think that I have an ace either, maybe kings (let's not get into that!). V starts chuckling even more after hearing that. She then asks if I can even beat any ace. I reply that I can beat AK. She laughs at me and says that there is no way that I can beat AK. At this point, I turn over my hand. The two guys at the other end of the table get quiet, and V immediately gets dead silent.

Hero ???

Comments

  • Danny MDanny M Red Chipper Posts: 353 ✭✭✭
    JT is the logical bluff that villain makes his goofy flop min raise with... it's also something I've seen done with sets, 2pair, and top top of course this is all online... I don't know how much live players bluff min raise draws but I know that fishy live + online players --especially when drunk-- often over value their top pairs and over pairs (had one jam $340 into a $60 pot with AK vs TT last night on KT5) ... the turn check would still support AK same hand AJ AT A9s A8s 98 99 88 or JT because it didn't bring in a straight or a BDF so there is little to protect against... I don't see villain calling AK or AQ pre though the way it sounds like she has been splashing around...
    4 JTs 6 sets so you lose to 10 combos...
    1 combo ea A8 A9s 2 98s 4 logical raising combos you beat 8 ea AK AJ AT 24 drunk donkey raising combos 4 AQ ties... that stuff aside....

    I'd call based on the fact villain is drunk and off of the previous hands you described you have to pay this villain off if she has a monster due to how thin she's splashing money into the pot AND she stfu when she saw your hand...
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,755 ✭✭✭✭
    Danny M wrote: »
    I'd call based on the fact villain is drunk and off of the previous hands you described you have to pay this villain off if she has a monster due to how thin she's splashing money into the pot AND she stfu when she saw your hand...

    Thank you for the full post. You detailed perfectly my thought-process, while my gut told me to let it go. Because of that, I wasn't sure if my thought-process was on or not. I appreciate your typing it all out!
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 10
    Check min raise doesnt make much sense oop with JT.

    Her talk represents a monster
    Her 2x pot river shove reps a monster
    Her turn check reps a weak ace or draw
    Not sure why you bet small on the turn, its ok but not great. I don't mind it because villain checked after check raising the flop Vs a weak ace i like your sizing. Vs a draw i would like to see 140-200.

    Not sure what i make of her going silent. I've seen players do this with the nuts because they want you to be curious and call. Where as ive seen players bluffing with a draw keep talking "i know you have AK." So you think if they know i have tptk why are they shoving unless they have me beat, but if they have me beat why do they want me to think they have me beat instead of just taking the money? So now i know their bluffing.

    I think i fold here, seems a little weak, but there is too much hollywood for a 2x pot shove. A9, A8, 98, all continue to bet the turn. So its JT or 76 and if she says she doesn't call 98 then she doesn't call 76. So J10 it is.

    Also based on some of your other post you seem to call a little light. If they know you call light they are less likely to bluff.

    Just hard to fold top 2 here. I hope im wrong but sounds like you lost a pretty big pot.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,755 ✭✭✭✭
    Thank you for the full analysis, @Austin. I guess that you're seeing the mixed messages,
    too.
    Austin wrote: »
    Also based on some of your other post you seem to call a little light. If they know you call light they are less likely to bluff.

    Agreed. The only reason that I discount this here is because it was our first time ever playing together, and, in this session, I had built up my stack without having to make a single river call.

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thank you for the full analysis, @Austin. I guess that you're seeing the mixed messages,
    too.
    Austin wrote: »
    Also based on some of your other post you seem to call a little light. If they know you call light they are less likely to bluff.

    Agreed. The only reason that I discount this here is because it was our first time ever playing together, and, in this session, I had built up my stack without having to make a single river call.

    I use to be a pretty big nit coming from an online, full ring, mass tabling background. Part of me says call, but this situation is so rare. I hard get to play this deep (not very deep based on straddle) but take away the straddle and playing 300-400 bb deep and having someone stack off here for a 2x pot river shove = nuts to me. I would consider folding bottom set here.

    I think sets become calls though and 2 pair becomes a fold.

    Bart is 100% stacking off here. Im not a CLP member, but if i turn pro this year as planned ill definitely have to become a member and amp up my studies.

    I bring this up because there was a recent video where a player was in a similar situation with A8 on A983? I think it was where he faced a sick turn donk over bet. Not sure if i posted it here.

    I think its important to post winning and losing hands because if people only post their bad beats and coolers, opinions and feed back become very bias and nitty. I read spoilers out of curiosity but my feed back is 100% not bias.

    Will wait the results.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,755 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    I think sets become calls though and 2 pair becomes a fold.

    Offline, a friend of mine (an actual friend from pre-poker days and not a poker "friend") who was at the table, who earns his living through poker, who lives and plays in the same city as V, and who is real life friends (with benefits) with V made the same comment afterward when he and I were dissecting the hand.

    I asked him: what's the difference here between a set and top two? V is just so unlikely to have a set at this point given her play throughout and river over-bet/shove. To me, V having a set is about her LEAST likely hand. In other words, top two, which I had, beats essentially everything that me having a set would beat and top two lose to the exact two hands that any set would beat, IMO. For what it's worth, he conceded that.

    Austin wrote: »
    I think its important to post winning and losing hands because if people only post their bad beats and coolers, opinions and feed back become very bias and nitty. I read spoilers out of curiosity but my feed back is 100% not bias.

    Agreed entirely. That's why I don't put my spoilers in my original post -- too damn tempting to read them! :)

    Austin wrote: »
    Will wait the results.

    The friend that I referenced earlier said that, knowing this V, he would have called with any two pair and maybe even AK. He said that she just does some crazy stuff when drunk (like many drunks) and that her getting quiet was really out of character.

    He also suggested that V's flop min-raise was likely a blocker bet, further discounting JT or 76 from her hand range. He also told me that she absolutely lies about things like never having 98 in her pre-flop calling range.
    I listened to my head and called. All the info suggested that I was ahead at least half the time, and I didn't need to be good that often given the money in the pot.
    V turned over JTo.

    The three of us -- my friend, V, and I were talking later. She told me that she was giddy when she shoved because she really thought that I was weak (i.e., I didn't even have an ace) and would fold, whereupon she could turn over her cards -- which she does often -- and revel in hitting her straight. When I turned over my hand, though, she then thought that I would call -- and she didn't want me to!! As a friend of her friend, she really didn't want to stack me. She even asked me to hug it out afterward -- she plays poker for fun and not for money -- and was clearly far more upset than I was. Truthfully, no way that I could have called THAT tell for why she got quiet! :)

    Final thought: I have long been considering a shift to my gut or "instinct" in these situations moving forward. The balance has really tipped where my gut now seems to be right far more often than my head in general. Hence why I started the thread about books on feel. I agree that feel is really the subconscious factoring in additional information and is only useful and reliable once you have done all the head work. This is the hand that has finally pushed me into the "feel" zone -- and it's buoyed by the crazy T6 hand that I played and referenced a few days ago where my gut served me quite well. I really friggin' knew, despite all the logical arguments to the contrary and the math to the contrary, that I should have folded.

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @moishetreats regarding your spoiler i think its a matter of low stake theory and player pools vs ranges and lines taken.

    Regarding top 2 vs sets is because low stakes they will only shove top 2 or better on boards like AJ8 so if you hold A8 your likely beat where as if you have 88 they have all combos of AJ. Its more of a combo blocker keeping all their two pair combos in play.

    Your friend seems to know what their doing. Sounds like myself :-) i mentioned blocker bet earlier as weak ace or draw once she checked the turn. In terms of calling AK or any 2 pair i would have to be at the table and be able to read the person. Eye contact, posture, shuffling chips, watching tv, eating or Drinking. To me it sounded like hollywood.

    The "you don't even have an ace" needling you into calling. Prove them wrong by giving them your money lol. If she was a good friend could of been like i really want to win a big pot but i don't want your money. Maybe pull a kevin heart and give you back your river bet?


  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭✭
    Alright I know I'm late but better than never. I enjoy me some live tells pieced together with the hand. So, when she says "I wouldn't have 98", that for me is very reliable. People rarely lie in all-in spots with a lot of pressure. If she had 98, and you guess it, they often say stuff like "maybe, maybe not." People will lie about vague things, like "I got you beat." or "you know what I have", maybe even "I got a good hand." When they get specific, often time's they are telling the truth. So I'm ruling out the 98 two pair. When she gets giddy on the river, that's pretty reliable IMO. People aren't good at "faking" excitement, and even when they try, it's pretty easy to distinguish. The half smile. The smirk. The laugh that tails off, or like snear with weak forced smile (qualifier for this, if they are drunk or legit don't care about the money, unreliable).


    So I think the river helped her, either by her perceiving that it helped YOU, and now she can really go for the gold with 99 or 88, or that she has like J10? It fits the bill of min raising the flop to like, freeze the turn action so she can try to improve. The final piece is the goading. Unskilled players who don't talk a lot can't goad well. The goad is super strong. But then her silence perplexes me. Cause it's almost like she got caught? Generally my tells are: if they are super silent pre-flop, they are stronger. The more animated they are on the river, the stronger. Move around and talking a lot pre, weaker, the hand isn't made yet so they need to see the flop. Quite, they wanna focus, they are ready for the flop, they need to pay attention.


    However, when she just quickly shuts up, it's almost as if she doesn't wanna give away any more info or she's like "Sh*t". So...Q9? That just doesn't make sense, unless she was trying to freeze the action on the flop? Cause me thinks the river helped her in a big way. She doesn't have 98. A9 or A8 bets turn. So I'm saying she had sets of 9's or 8's played in a weird way, J10, or Q9. OR, really strange, would be if she just flats QQ. So I'll add QQ in there, but so unlikely with your AQ. Man, nasty nasty. I don't give her credit for AK, just cause I think she bets the turn, and laughs all the way till the bank. Damn man, like, I fold. Disgusting, but I do it. She has a lot of super strong strength tells corelated for me, she's really giddy which means she thinks she has a super strong hand to beat you, if she has 99 or 88 I'm really perplexed but it fits, J10 makes a lot more sense since she checked the turn. 2.57 : 1 , 38% of the time...I just don't think she show up with AK here 40% of the time, especially with the strength tells correlation. Maybe if there were bricked FD's, I could get on board, but, like even the crap SD of j10 got there. I think we only beat Q9, which she min-raised on the flop to see if you really had the piece of the board, and then just went completely nuts with on the river. Funny if she had the other AQ. I'd feel stupid. She could have that. Man, I'd be deep in the tank. I dunno, where's that coin? Let the coin decide.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭✭
    Just read the spoiler, and your later response. So that's why she got quite, she was nervous that you'd call, and she didn't want to stack you. Whenever people apologize about suck outs, or like coolers or beating me, I always think of this wire scene:



    Most insulting thing ever is if someone is like "aw man...wow. Sorry for the suck out.
    Like, here's a green back." THAT'S NOT HOW THE GAME WORKS MAN.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file