To the river with tens.

MattPMattP Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
Played this hand at a friendly, neighborhood home game last night. $.10/.25 NLHE. Casual game, mostly dads who don't play much poker or understand basic strategies on bet sizing, pot odds, etc. I've never lost money at this game. I think my image is that I'm one of the better, more aggressive, knowledgeable players at the table. But I'm selective enough that I don't look super loose (to those who are paying attention). I have the biggest stack at the table as we start the hand, having player good, aggressive poker in the first couple hours (and some good cards have helped).

The main villain in the hand is one of the better players at the table, though. He knows the game pretty well. Plays $1/$3 NLHE at other games and does tournaments from time to time. He's not a maniac, but he isn't afraid to gamble. Definitely looser than me, but not crazy.

I'm in the cut-off with :Ts :Tc . First to act made it $.50. Two callers. I raise to $3. Villain, in middle position, calls. Pot : $7

Flop: :9S :6c :2h. Villain checks I bet $4. He calls. Pot: $15

Turn: :7s. Villain bets $6.50. I think I'm likely still ahead here vs his likely range of cards, but don't want to make it cheap for him to catch a favorable river. I think a bit and raise to $15. He calls without much hesitation, which sets alarm bells off in my head. He's called me twice, including my turn raise. Suddenly, I'm thinking his range is narrower than I expected — could he have JJ+, or a 9, 6, or 2? I supposed a pair + spade draw is possible, but less likely? 78s?
Whatever it is, the turn call makes me feel less confident that I'm good with just TT. Pot: $45.

River: :5c . He bets $10. The smallish size feels like a trap. He can't expect me to fold, can he? I realize the pot odds are huge. But if he's bluffing here, why not bet more? Is a call here just throwing money away? Or is a fold a catastrophic mistake?

What's your play?

Comments

  • AkashicAkashic Red Chipper Posts: 29 ✭✭
    How does he have JJ+ based on his preflop action? this feels more like he made trips
  • MattPMattP Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
    Agreed that AA-KK seems less likely, but JJ & QQ felt reasonable given preflop.
  • Danny MDanny M Red Chipper Posts: 343 ✭✭✭
    I wouldn't fold here I would call or raise being a 4 card straight + weak lead + if villain is folding everything but a set or straight to a raise this is an ok spot to turn alot of our showdown value 9T TT hands or Tx air into a bluff especially since we block the nut straight AND our opponents aren't thinking that we don't have any 8's except 88 in our Iso range...

    Yes he's got 97 67 65 and sets in his limp call range however he also has 9xs that lead turn and riv and villain must know that you have a lot of over cards with nothing on turn /riv and 4 card straights are good bluffing and rebluffing boards...

    What is villain betting in this spot? Is it only an 8 if so it's probably bad to raise and good fold...

    What are you calling with here? Only 2 pair+... if that's the case I feel like you are overfolding this spot based on the direct pot odds...
  • Luuk vLuuk v Red Chipper Posts: 66 ✭✭
    edited February 13
    MattP wrote: »
    I think I'm likely still ahead here vs his likely range of cards, but don't want to make it cheap for him to catch a favorable river. I think a bit and raise to $15. He calls without much hesitation, which sets alarm bells off in my head. He's called me twice, including my turn raise. Suddenly, I'm thinking his range is narrower than I expected — could he have JJ+, or a 9, 6, or 2? I supposed a pair + spade draw is possible, but less likely? 78s?
    Whatever it is, the turn call makes me feel less confident that I'm good with just TT.

    Why raise turn if you feel you're behind when he calls?
  • MattPMattP Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
    I raised the turn, which he called. Which was the first time I started to think I was behind. Prior to that, I felt like I was ahead.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 3,333 ✭✭✭✭
    The inner nit in me said just call the turn, but after thinking about it i really like your raise. You charge a lot of pair+ combos here and besides a turn set of 7s it doesn't help him much. I'm missing stack sizes.

    Given villain is one of the better players in the game i think vs your squeeze he can rule out a lot of 8x from your range. With that said his river play looks like he is making an exploitable bet sizing. Looks like you have an over pair, so would you call a big bet? Probably not. I like the way you played the hand, but i think a hero fold is in order on the river.

    Flop ($7) :9S: :6C: :2H:
    MP checks
    Hero bets $4
    MP calls $4

    Turn ($15) :9S: :6C: :2H: :7S:
    MP bets $6.50
    Hero raises to $15
    MP calls $8.50

    River ($45) :9S: :6C: :2H: :7S: :5C:
    MP bets $10
    Hero ?

    Getting 5.5 to 1 meaning MP has to be betting worse than TT 16% of the time. Based on his preflop over call then his preflop squeeze call i can see some 65s+, 22+, suited broadways AJ+, etc..

    Flop call narrow his range down to
    22, 66, 77, 88, 99, TT, JJ, 65s, 76s, 87s, 98s, T9s,

    Turn 9627 vs a bet raise call
    I think you would only drop 65s to 1 combo of spades.

    River how are you doing vs that range? You block T9s, all the pair + OE gets there, 2 pair for 65s gets there, i really don't see anything you beat.

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