Turn check caps me, V polarizing bet on river

jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
Somewhat interesting hand I've been mulling over since my Sunday session. Hero is perceived to be the loosest one at table, getting verbal "oh of course he's gonna raise". V-1 seems to be competent, he's only been seated an hour but talks about playing a lot, and even dropped some mathage at the table (so he must be good duh). I've only seen him SD once when he stacked AA with Q9 on a Q 9 3 two spade board (he was in the BB). Anyways, $1/3 hero $550 V covers.

MP-1 opens to $12 1 caller hero on BU with :JD::TD: , I elect to call. I'll occasionally mix in a 3-bet with this. SB and V-1 calls in the BB.

Pot $60

Flop :JC::9D::3H: .

Checks to me, and while the SB and V-1 check don't mean much to me, the other players in the hand would likely bet if they connected with this board in any way. I got a lot of good turns, I bet $35, V-1 calls, the rest fold.

Pot $130

Turn :5C: V-1 checks, I check as well, as this was not a turn improvement card to gain additional equity, so gotta stick with the plan.


River :9H: . V leads for $100. This kind of reminds me of the Q9 hand, where V is polarizing his range to either made hands, or air. Perhaps trying to recover a street of missed value with hands such as a set (only 33 really possible...so kinda unlikely) Hero tanks


Analysis: I think the flop bet is OK. MW like this on the BU when I can be confident at least 2 of 4 players don't have anything currently stronger than me, I think it's a good bet spot. Lot of turn improvement cards. On the river, I have to be good a high 43% of the time here. My question becomes what hands do I call with? I think J10 is obviously one of my worst candidates, I block Q10, 10-8, all the draws I'd want him to have. In addition, if he did ambitiously float with a 98s, 109s, he got there on the river. He also has sets of 3's. BUT, he could also be the ambitious type to float KQ and K10, AQ. I sure do hate folding top pairs. Problem is, my range is pretty capped here, and I could even potentially have a 9, which he seems to be unbothered by. I think it would be a pretty sick value bet of him to go for this with AJ or KJ kind of hand, which certainly call, or even C/r the flop. Hero folds, V doesn't show, and hero contemplates how easy it is to exploit turn checks if V is that type of player.

Comments

  • AkashicAkashic Red Chipper Posts: 67 ✭✭
    I would take a similar line as villain in this situation, by floating. Instead of checking, what bet sizing did you consider? Does that 5 really change anything? If you thought that JT was too weak to bet (with a loose image) a normal sizing with, perhaps an underbet could be considered.

    It seems like you forgot your image and got spooked about those monsters under the bed. Remember, he didn't take the squeeze line from the BB, so he would likely have air here. Again, this depends on you paying attention to the other times he didn't reach showdown.
  • NYCRyNYCRy Red Chipper Posts: 336 ✭✭✭
    Why not bet on the blank turn? If you get check-raised you can fold. If you get called you can most likely check back river or fold river if he called the turn and fired river. If you check the turn you're just guessing and leave yourself open to being exploited as he could have any two cards here
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 301 ✭✭✭
    I agree that if you bet the flop, you should certainly be betting this turn. A capable villain is going to bomb a ton of rivers with a ton of hands when you check back, because it just looks so weak.

    You can check the turn as long as you're willing to call a lot of rivers, but I think better candidates for that are hands like AJ and overpairs - hands that don't block his straight draws and are not going to get shown a higher top pair on the end when he leads out with QJ or something.
  • RCP Coach - Fausto ValdezRCP Coach - Fausto Valdez RCP Coach Posts: 859 ✭✭✭✭
    edited February 2018
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    Somewhat interesting hand I've been mulling over since my Sunday session. Hero is perceived to be the loosest one at table, getting verbal "oh of course he's gonna raise". V-1 seems to be competent, he's only been seated an hour but talks about playing a lot, and even dropped some mathage at the table (so he must be good duh). I've only seen him SD once when he stacked AA with Q9 on a Q 9 3 two spade board (he was in the BB). Anyways, $1/3 hero $550 V covers.

    MP-1 opens to $12 1 caller hero on BU with :JD::TD: , I elect to call. I'll occasionally mix in a 3-bet with this. SB and V-1 calls in the BB.

    Pot $60

    Flop :JC::9D::3H: .

    Checks to me, and while the SB and V-1 check don't mean much to me, the other players in the hand would likely bet if they connected with this board in any way. I got a lot of good turns, I bet $35, V-1 calls, the rest fold.

    Pot $130

    Turn :5C: V-1 checks, I check as well, as this was not a turn improvement card to gain additional equity, so gotta stick with the plan.


    River :9H: . V leads for $100. This kind of reminds me of the Q9 hand, where V is polarizing his range to either made hands, or air. Perhaps trying to recover a street of missed value with hands such as a set (only 33 really possible...so kinda unlikely) Hero tanks


    Analysis: I think the flop bet is OK. MW like this on the BU when I can be confident at least 2 of 4 players don't have anything currently stronger than me, I think it's a good bet spot. Lot of turn improvement cards. On the river, I have to be good a high 43% of the time here. My question becomes what hands do I call with? I think J10 is obviously one of my worst candidates, I block Q10, 10-8, all the draws I'd want him to have. In addition, if he did ambitiously float with a 98s, 109s, he got there on the river. He also has sets of 3's. BUT, he could also be the ambitious type to float KQ and K10, AQ. I sure do hate folding top pairs. Problem is, my range is pretty capped here, and I could even potentially have a 9, which he seems to be unbothered by. I think it would be a pretty sick value bet of him to go for this with AJ or KJ kind of hand, which certainly call, or even C/r the flop. Hero folds, V doesn't show, and hero contemplates how easy it is to exploit turn checks if V is that type of player.

    your math is wrong, he is betting 100 into 130 giving you slightly better than 2-1, so you technically need to win more than 30%

    that being said, if his as wide as to contain offsuit versions of lower connected cards with 9x and 8x then ill call by river as we should find enough bluffs vs his value here

    i also dont think he will bet this big unless he has AJ along with his 9x

    then maybe he does the same with all busted OESD

    if his not as wide as we think, then fold
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  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,426 ✭✭✭✭
    I think your line is fine.

    I don't know why you think V1 is polarized on river? I would guess that average 1/3 player has AJ+ very often in this spot.
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 294 ✭✭✭
    The turn should be a clear bet, with the plan of checking back river. You know that your range is capped on the river, but the problem is you did this to yourself by checking the turn. Bet the turn to keep your range uncapped.

    If you check the turn with top pair in position, you need to plan to call off any river bet even if an over card comes, or else you'll be too exploitable, because the call-check-bet line is very standard OOP play. You are calling 100 to win 230, you only need 30% equity. Yes you block QT and T8, but there are still more of these combos than 9x.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,426 ✭✭✭✭
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    The turn should be a clear bet, with the plan of checking back river. You know that your range is capped on the river, but the problem is you did this to yourself by checking the turn. Bet the turn to keep your range uncapped.

    If you check the turn with top pair in position, you need to plan to call off any river bet even if an over card comes, or else you'll be too exploitable, because the call-check-bet line is very standard OOP play. You are calling 100 to win 230, you only need 30% equity. Yes you block QT and T8, but there are still more of these combos than 9x.

    not sure why you guys think turn is a must bet spot after guy with worst position calls your flop bet in 5W pot?

    I think you guys are not considering how much hand strength changes in 5W pot.

    We are pretty close to having breakeven call on river if V1 bets AJ/T8s/J9s/QTs/99/33 as our JTs has 31% vs this range BUT sometimes V1 will show up with some A9s/T9s/98s/JJ/QQ+ AND they will not always bluff 100% of their missed draws.

    It is my default belief that average live low stake players WAY under bluff so I would suggest just folding all close spots.
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 294 ✭✭✭
    kenaces wrote: »
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    The turn should be a clear bet, with the plan of checking back river. You know that your range is capped on the river, but the problem is you did this to yourself by checking the turn. Bet the turn to keep your range uncapped.

    If you check the turn with top pair in position, you need to plan to call off any river bet even if an over card comes, or else you'll be too exploitable, because the call-check-bet line is very standard OOP play. You are calling 100 to win 230, you only need 30% equity. Yes you block QT and T8, but there are still more of these combos than 9x.

    not sure why you guys think turn is a must bet spot after guy with worst position calls your flop bet in 5W pot?

    I think you guys are not considering how much hand strength changes in 5W pot.

    We are pretty close to having breakeven call on river if V1 bets AJ/T8s/J9s/QTs/99/33 as our JTs has 31% vs this range BUT sometimes V1 will show up with some A9s/T9s/98s/JJ/QQ+ AND they will not always bluff 100% of their missed draws.

    It is my default belief that average live low stake players WAY under bluff so I would suggest just folding all close spots.

    The turn is not a must bet, but checking the turn and don't have a plan to call off all rivers will leave you wide open to be exploited, and your opponent doesn't even have to do anything out of the oridinary to exploit you, because betting the river after the IP player checks the turn is a standard play.

    The benefit of betting the turn is that you get to keep your lead and potentially get to showdown cheaper than if you give up the lead. So if the OP bet the turn for $60 and check back the river, he only risked $60 for a showdown instead of letting his opponent set the price to $100. And if your opponent check raise you on the turn, you can fold after losing $60 instead of losing at showdown for $100.
  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 564 ✭✭✭
    Imo you played the hand well. Flop and turn look good given flop sizing. I think betting or checking turn have merits, although i typically bet again to avoid debating whether to bluffcatch river (their river lead range is much more defined after calling twice.) River, given the fact we block QT and T8 and dont block 9x given our T and the 9 are diamonds i think we can fold this hand most of the time. We will be checking back enough 9x, and will have other better Jx to call given fields tendency to under-bluff as kenaces pointed out.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,426 ✭✭✭✭
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    The turn is not a must bet, but checking the turn and don't have a plan to call off all rivers will leave you wide open to be exploited

    A huge amount of my play leaves me open for exploits but I don't care because very few players do anything about it.

    Give me AJ or KJ and I agree with your thinking



  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    On a separate item, I think that you have some false presumptions,
    and I wonder if/how that affects your thought-process at the table.

    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    Hero is perceived to be the loosest one at table, getting verbal "oh of course he's gonna raise".

    Just because one raises when playing hands doesn't mean that one is thought of as loose.

    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    V-1 seems to be competent, he's only been seated an hour but talks about playing a lot, and even dropped some mathage at the table (so he must be good duh).

    It's entirely unclear to me if V1 is competent or if you think that V1 is competent. You state that you think so but then mock his math talk at the table. What is your real perception of V1?
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    @Yanming Z I intended to call the river until he chose this sizing. I was probably gonna call $60-70 pretty quickly. I kind of level myself into a "if he just called the flop....he could do this with strong hands, as well as strong draws. Hands such as AJ or KJ are incentived to C/R, as more cards to come will likely hurt them, whereas hands such sets, or Q10, 108 may way to just flat to induce other callers to subsidize the drawing, fearing that if he C/R's and I shove overtop, he will be forced to get his money in bad." I went kinda back and forth, then thought AJ can pretty safely go for good value on the river vs a perceived weaker jack, KJ might be a bit bold, but possible. Also, if he takes that same logic with hands such as 98s, or 109s with BD SD + FD and MP, then gets there on the river....yeah I didn't have enough reads on his play style yet to know if he would be willing to go for a move like this with busted OESD.

    I'm not necessarily on board with a turn bet again, even though it easily could set up a cheap showdown for me, so I could just take my SD value, or if he C/R me here on the turn clear fold instead of being put in a bluff catching situation.

    @moishetreats when I say competent, it just means that he has taken time to read some poker books, and he plays the game a lot. Do we assume anyone who has taken time to learn a bit of poker math is "great?". No. But it shows that he has at the very minimum an interest in the game, which until I've been proven otherwise, will lend me to make the assumption that he isn't getting really far out of line here. I can assign a "reasonable" range.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    @moishetreats when I say competent, it just means that he has taken time to read some poker books, and he plays the game a lot. Do we assume anyone who has taken time to learn a bit of poker math is "great?". No. But it shows that he has at the very minimum an interest in the game, which until I've been proven otherwise, will lend me to make the assumption that he isn't getting really far out of line here. I can assign a "reasonable" range.

    Gotcha. Thanks!

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