Tricky spot in a 3 way pot

Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 278 ✭✭✭
1/3 game, V1 $200 stack, V2 $300 stack, hero covers.

V1 is a young aggro fish kid, played fairly passive preflop, but have seen him run some 0 equity bluffs post. V2 is a fairly straight forward player, doesn't hand read that well, easily bluffed.

So H opens to $15 from MP with :As :Th , V1 calls, button calls, and V2 calls from BB. 4 ways to a flop

Flop ($55): :Jd :Tc :4d , checks to H, bets $35, V1 calls, button folds, V2 calls.

Turn ($160): :Ac , V2 checks, H checks, V1 shoves for $150, V2 reshoves for $250. H?

The plan for checking the turn was to induce a bet or shove from V1, due to his aggro nature he was most likely to bet after H check the turn. But V2's reshove effectively turned H's hand into a bluff catcher. H is losing to KQ, AJ, sets, only worse hand V2 might do this with was JT.
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Comments

  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭✭✭
    don't like much about how H played the hand.
    everything from the opening range to the c-betting range seems to be decisions made on the fly.
    the flop should be a check/back multi-way. This is a bad board for our range.
    on the turn - KQ gets there - but it also enboldens :Jc :Xc to shove - and forces 2-pair+ to "protect"

    imo, you're asking the wrong questions.
    it's not - "what should I do here?"
    but instead, it should be... "what the heck was I doing here?"
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 278 ✭✭✭
    kagey wrote: »
    don't like much about how H played the hand.
    everything from the opening range to the c-betting range seems to be decisions made on the fly.
    the flop should be a check/back multi-way. This is a bad board for our range.
    on the turn - KQ gets there - but it also enboldens :Jc :Xc to shove - and forces 2-pair+ to "protect"

    imo, you're asking the wrong questions.
    it's not - "what should I do here?"
    but instead, it should be... "what the heck was I doing here?"

    I disagree with the 2 points you made.

    ATo is in the H's MP opening range, H has an average opening range of 17%, ranging from 7% UTG to 45% on the button, MP opening range is around 15%, ATo is in the bottom 1/3 of that range. With a tight passive propensity of 1/2-2/5 games, and the general lack of 3 betting, I feel like if you are opening any tighter you leave money on the table.

    On the flop it was a clear bet, AJ, JT, TT-AA, are all in that 15% MP opening range, while TT-AA are unlikely to be in my opponents' ranges. And there are plethra of second bests that can call, KQ, Q9, 89, diamonds, or other TX hands that decide to call the C-bet, only realisic better hands are JX combos which are far less in numbers than worse hands combos. If the flop bet gets called, often I can get folds on future streets from a weaker JX combo cause I have more nuttish combos on this board than all of my opponents.

    The H knows EXACTLY how he got to the turn. Sometimes unexpected happen, in this case is the passive player shoving. V1 could have shoved with any 2 cards, he have shown 0 equity bluffs before.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,432 ✭✭✭✭
    kagey wrote: »
    don't like much about how H played the hand.
    everything from the opening range to the c-betting range seems to be decisions made on the fly.
    the flop should be a check/back multi-way. This is a bad board for our range.
    on the turn - KQ gets there - but it also enboldens :Jc :Xc to shove - and forces 2-pair+ to "protect"

    imo, you're asking the wrong questions.
    it's not - "what should I do here?"
    but instead, it should be... "what the heck was I doing here?"

    @Yanming Z you might want to read what kagey wrote a couple of times over. His advice has great fundamentals for exploitive play. I understand your betting your range, but 1\3 players are just playing their hands and don't care about your range.

    On future run outs this board favors the callers range because you will have less flush draws and straight draws then they do. If the turn comes 8d, how many flushes and striaghts are in your range vs theirs? This is why flop should easily be a check. If you had :AD: in your hand I could see you betting and continuing on the turn, but your betting near blind.

    Bb checks
    Hero bets
    Co has position on you
    Btn has position on you

    Your betting 2nd pair with almost no back door equity. You do not block any of their draws and the fact that you block 2nd pair makes their calling range even stronger.

    Just cause hero opens 17% of hands from MP doesn't mean A10 should be in it. For the most part you will have at least 1 or 2 people behind you who have position on you. If they are calling AJ+ 22+ 87s+ your going to find yourself in a lot of difficult spots. Your assuming you can get them to fold top pair by barreling? Why? They playing less than 100bb stacks and the SPR is 4.

    Maybe your trying to embrace a lag style, but i don't think your choosing the right spots. I could see opening to $10 from the HJ with A10o but thats about it. Im raising small to have a higher SPR because im not looking to get stacks in with 2nd pair or top pair on A92 flop. You will just value own yourself more times than not.

    Described your villain as "young fish aggro kid who plays passive preflop." Little contradicting but i see what you mean. When he ran these zero equity bluffs was he heads up or barreling into 3 players like yourself? Did he have blockers? I think the kids image is getting the best of you this hand and you dug your own grave this hand. I think the turn you may have enough equity if you include some straight draws + fd, TP+FD etc. I think your ok on equity but its marginal.

    I wouldn't post results yet. Wait for others to give feed back. Lot of fundamental errors in this hand preflop and on the flop.
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 278 ✭✭✭
    edited March 10
    @Austin please explain why future run outs favors the callers range? If a diamond comes on the turn, then yes it favors the callers range, but what about the 82% of the time diamond doesn't come? 2nd pair top kicker on this flop is almost always the best hand, why check and give the draws a free card? When all the worse hands are absolutely calling a bet, why not generate value from it?

    As for preflop, I guess you can argue either way. But the population propensity in the room I play 80 hr per week (for promotional purposes) at, you can definitely raise with marginal hands, and either pick up the blinds pre, or people call you with so much trash they'll fold to double barrels extremely often, and 3 betting are so rare here you almost never have to worry about it. MP is only one position ahead of HJ, so if you are opening ATo from HJ elsewhere, you can definitely open it from 1 position earlier in this room.

    17% of the hands pre is not LAG, I admit I'm very aggressive post flop, but with my range folding every hand for 2-3 hours is not rare. A lot of regulars tell me I'm one of the tightest player they know.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    please explain why future run outs favors the callers range? If a diamond comes on the turn, then yes it favors the callers range, but what about the 82% of the time diamond doesn't come?

    let's look at cards that are good for us... umm, T?
    now let's look at cards that are bad for us, A, K, Q, J, 9, 8, any :Xd any :Xc

    If you're a RCP subscriber, check out Brokos' "Range Advantage" series
    If you're not, consider subscribing

    This is not about "arguing" who is right and who is wrong.
    It's about playing a range that allows us to win more pots.
    I can show you a 20% range that doesn't include ATos
    Opening hands because they fall into a X% range chart will do you no good if you don't know how to play the hand post
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    2nd pair top kicker on this flop is almost always the best hand, why check and give the draws a free card? When all the worse hands are absolutely calling a bet, why not generate value from it?

    consider doing some range vs range work on this hand
    what hands are folding to your bet?
    pocket 5s, 67s, A9os... basically hands that you're way ahead of
    now, whos calling?
    SDs, FDs, JX, TX....
    So, when you bet and get TWO callers - do we really think when we're checking we're inducing?

    with more than ½ the deck that favors the TWO callers
    with us being OOP
    do we really want to build a pot here with second pair?
    remember, we opened and should have hands like QQ & KK in our range.
    shouldn't our opponents be concerned that they're dominated when we bet?
    are they really calling with 54s?
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    As for preflop, I guess you can argue either way.

    Actually, you can't. In just the last 6 months, you've started no less than 34 post asking "what do I do now????"
    Welcome to RCP forums, btw... it's how we all learn

    It's rare that I have such posts anymore because I've spent more time off the table than on the tables (trying to win promotions) to make my game solid and unexploitable.
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    But the population propensity in the room I play 80 hr per week (for promotional purposes) at, you can definitely raise with marginal hands, and either pick up the blinds pre, or people call you with so much trash they'll fold to double barrels extremely often, and 3 betting are so rare here you almost never have to worry about it. MP is only one position ahead of HJ, so if you are opening ATo from HJ elsewhere, you can definitely open it from 1 position earlier in this room.

    well if you've got that amazing read on your poker room, then do what you do.
    but the fact that you're asking for advice makes me thinks you've got some major range construction ahead of you...
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 278 ✭✭✭
    edited March 10
    @kagey sorry I have to call you out on your condescending manner in every post you respond to. On every forum there are people who feel like they are too good to ask any questions, and respond to posts like they are better than everyone else, even though some of their responses are absolutely ludacris. And you sir, is such individual on this forum.

    I am a pro member on this site, and couple other training sites, and yes I have been posting to ask questions and opinions on my game. And I'm proud to say that by admitting what I don't know, my poker record has grown from 1bb/hr loser to a 12bb/hr winner in just under a year.

    I started playing poker last May, after 3 years of advantage play which got me 86'd from every table game in Vegas and surrounding areas. You could say I had a head start because I understood the concepts of EV, statistical edge, BR management etc. Since then poker IS my life. I have surrounded myself with players I who are better than me, and I constantly post hand history in group chats. I would have logged 4000 hours by the end of this month. I guarantee you that I have spent more hours studying, experimenting, and discussing the game than most of the members here, and I will always ask questions without hesitation.

    For that reason, I have much more respect toward responses from people like @Austin who is willing to share his tough spots with the forum. Unlike other forms of advantage gambling, poker is not a game where you can get better by running simulations and crunching numbers on a computer. Even the best players in the world have spots where they don't know what to do, but those who feel like they are too good to ask questions are never gonna improve.

  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    @kagey sorry I have to call you out on your condescending manner in every post you respond to. On every forum there are people who feel like they are too good to ask any questions, and respond to posts like they are better than everyone else, even though some of their responses are absolutely ludacris. And you sir, is such individual on this forum.

    no sweat, @Yanming Z
    was just offering constructive criticism...
    I don't sugarcoat my words so i can see how you might get defensive.
    you disagreed with my 2 points about hand selection and board texture- and think my points are wrong. that's your prerogative

    congrats on putting a lot of work into your game
    i find that when I'm put in a tough bind - it has more to do with my range construction than my profiling or combinatorics.
    In my posts - I asked a LOT of questions for you to consider... to better understand your thought process - but instead you took them as a school marm admonishing a student. that was not my intent.
    it makes no difference to me whether you prefer Austin's advice to mine.

    but to call the advice " ludacris" shows how little you know.
    because Ludacris is a rapper/actor (from the Fast & Furious movie)... while ludicrous is an English word that means foolish or ridiculous.
    and I can assure you, my advice was neither.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
    No one likes Kagey's way of expressing himself, Yanming. It's not the best part of him. However, underneath the crap is some very functional advice.

    We can look at this two ways to see why.

    Firstly, when you are opening this wide it is based on exploitative reasoning. Against rational defenses A10o from the field at 5x either is the bottom or essentially won't work versus reasonable opposition. Large sizings with a wide range, which we like around here, are inherently inefficient. Their inefficiency is subsidized by large opponent errors - that is what makes them work. No one can escape the math of poker.

    Second. But fine, we say, we have such an edge we're going outside rational construction. That's reasonable. So we arrive at the flop and decide our range is overall ahead and that this hand is in fact slightly ahead -that still doesn't make this particular hand a rational bet. This is because four way, the bet comes from the middle part of your range and will be weaker than a defense range across streets of play that wants to answer a 4 way price offer. This means the positive of your bet rests mainly in some potential protection, one street of value, and little more. In other words, there should be some checks even in an exploitative strategy.

    This means that going down either path we choose, the EV of our play will be marginal at best. And that's fine as long as we acknowledge it. Since the advice you get will always trend toward the vacuum as posters can't account for all the variables you see, your idea of being in the middle of your range is a spot (multiway) that lends itself to polarization will not be met with much approval for the big picture, nor will it be easy to find a plan for all the aggressive money your exploit creates once facing resistance.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,432 ✭✭✭✭
    I use to have words of war with @kagey and that is what helped improve my game. If you go back to some of my first post I was more about putting people on certain hands and playing my hand then actually considering ranges.

    How many hours at 1\3 have you played? 12bb ($36\hr for 4000 hours) is $144,000 plus the promotions you talk about. With that roll should easily be playing 5\10. I don't recommend it as there are still some very clear fundamental errors in the hand and 5\10 would be a very expensive way to find out.

    If you really think A10 is the best hand then why not check raise? You block AJ, they dont have JJ, TT, QQ, KK, AA, so why not go bananas and just check raise all in? Would that be over playing your hand?

    As @kagey pointed out work out a preflop calling range, flop calling range, and see how your equity performs with A10 against 2 players. I would take out them folding Jx out of the picture. Ignore the turn ace for a moment, that was a pretty lucky card but not the best card either.

    @kagey use to be way more harsh or critical in the forum. At least now he is giving constructive criticism and instead of just criticism. In the past and even some in present times he would just say "nice spew" and leave it at that. Then your left wondering why this guy is an ass hole.

    All the info is in this thread for you to get started. I would drop your 80 hrs a week down to 60 and spend another 20 hours a week studying. If your at 12bb\hr now maybe you will be 15bb\hr once you stop barreling 2nd pair MW.
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 278 ✭✭✭
    edited March 11
    A while ago I played second pair as the PFR in MW pots passively like it was suggested here, but time and time again, my selective memory is telling me that one of two things always happen:

    1. I check, somebody bets OTF or OTT or both, I fold OTF or OTT, and the hand went to SD and I would have won the pot if I called down. (I do call down sometimes, but it’s always an expensive guessing game)
    2. Checks around on all streets, and a guy wins with a rivered pair who would absolutely folded if someone bet the flop.

    I thought there must be a better way. A guy in my chat group once told me according to PIO solver, it’s almost always more +ev to bet second pair than to check on the flop in a 3 way pot. He couldn’t give a reason why, so I decided to explore some statistical data of second pairs and found the following (numbers are not exact as I rounded them for ease of use on the table):

    I started by give an average player a preflop calling range of low to mid suited connectors and gappers, mid to high off suit connectors, broadways, suited aces, and all PP. Totaling 300 combos total, or 22% of the hand.

    Against this range, on a non A or K high board, that’s not monotone or 3 cards connected, mid pair top kicker has 85% chance being the best hand, against a single opponent. This figure has a + or - 2% range on it, +2% if the 2 high cards on the flop is 45, -2% if it’s QJ.

    For multiple opponents you add 0.9X for each additional opponents, let’s add 1X to simplify, So for 3 opponents, the chance of one of them having better than second pair top kicker is about 45% +/- 6%, and 3 opponents is the limit in which you still have a statistical edge over the field with second pair top kicker.

    Obviously, in poker, having the best hand is not a reason to bet, because the definition of a value bet is that your bet has to be called by worse. So betting becomes viable only if there are draws available to call you.

    But what if the board is super dry, is there still a reason to bet second pair? Let’s look at the run outs. If an over card to your pair comes OTT, your chance of still have the best hand reduce by 12% per opponent, and another 12% OTR. Obviously this affect lower pairs more. For example if you have A4 on a 942 board, if you check it down to the river against 3 opponents, the chance of you having the best hand reduces from 55% to around only 10%. So checking 2 streets is a effective -45% ev on the pot, so if you can do better than that by betting, even -ev, you should take it. This is kinda like hitting a 16 against a 10 in blackjack, it’s -ev either way, but hitting is less - than standing.

    This was the surface of my study on second pairs, I reprogrammed for 150 combo calling range of a nit to 500 combos of a maniac, results were similar, betting second pair OTF is superior to checking in a 4 way pot or less. As long as one of the following is met:

    1. Multiple draws available.
    2. Your pair is low.

    And generally a half pot bet OTF is sufficient to get the job done, whether to barrel the turn you have to decide by who called you, what position are you OTT, and if the turn is a brick or not.

    @Austin as for your suggestions, I’d argue that playing second pair aggressively in MW pots have done nothing but improved my WR, so I seriously doubt going back to how I was playing before will be better. I play 80 hrs a week because it maximizes the value of the promotion. But believe me when I say this, I probably put more than 20hrs of study on top of my 80hr of play, when I say poker has been my life I meant it lol. I am close to 6 figures this year, not quite as high as you stated because my first month was a losing month, and 12bb/hr was only for the last 1000hrs I played. Most of my earnings don’t go back to my bankroll because I have loans to pay and a family to take care of. I like to keep 50 max BI as BR so I project I’ll be able to play 5/10 in 2 years.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
    1. Pio doesn't solve for three way, never mind 4 way pots.
    2. Again, no one said you couldn't have the best hand now.
    3. Again, if you are exploiting weak resistance, no one can argue with you.

    GL, you know your games best.
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 278 ✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    1. Pio doesn't solve for three way, never mind 4 way pots.
    2. Again, no one said you couldn't have the best hand now.
    3. Again, if you are exploiting weak resistance, no one can argue with you.

    GL, you know your games best.

    Thanks!

    I don't remember exactly what solver the guy in my group chat used, was a long time ago and I don't have PIO myself.

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,432 ✭✭✭✭
    Some of your #s dont make any sense.
    69 days played this year and close to 100k profit. Thats roughly $1500 a day and $144\hr profit. Thats based on 10hr days. That's one hell of a promotion to give up around $110\hr for playing.

    Unless your calculate your years from june to June. To play 4000 hrs this year would mean 57 hrs a day. Just doesn't add up.

    I admire your studies and the work you put in but you might want to get a new tracking program. Unless your calculating your buyin as part of the profit.

    t1r3ru8vntkc.png
    zooh7judg9gl.png

    What calling range do you assign one player? The calling range I assign your behind. Don't rely on selective memory to improve yout game. Look at the ranges and math. Vs two players or even 3 players its even worse. Im not sure What range you assign them. Vs their overall range your ahead but vs their calling or continuing range your not doing very well.
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 278 ✭✭✭
    edited March 11
    @Austin Sorry for the confusion, by this year I meant from last May when I started playing poker to now. I play 10-14 hours a day, I sometimes play a bit less on the final day of each week when I make the weekly 80. 4000hrs a year is equivalent to 2 full time jobs, which I will achieve by the end of this month. I don't use any tracking software, I keep track of everything in Excel. I've been a pro gambler for a long time, trust me that I don't make silly mistakes such as counting my BIs as profit.

    The range you assigned is way too tight, at these limits you see people calling with hands like 75s and 89o ALL THE TIME. Also, my previous post was on the statistical data of why to bet the flop against a preflop calling range, but once your bet gets called on the flop, you are dealing with a narrower range going to the turn, to which you have to reevaluate and decide to double barrel or not. This is the same idea with 3 betting pre with a hand like A5s, once you are called you are probably behind. But the dead money you pickup when everyone folds plus the equity and the hands you can represent going forward still makes it a profitable play.

    I never make my decision based on selective memory, again another basic gambler mistake I would never make. But selective memory was what drove me to analyze the science behind second pairs at that particular point in time, and then I adjusted my play based on the results of the analysis.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,432 ✭✭✭✭
    Lets say the board with KT3r i would be more on board with your bet some of the time. jT4dd favors the callers range on future run outs. Im not arguing betting 2nd pair in general, just this texture with this hand.

    What ranges do you assign villain? Even if you include 75s or 98o your still behind vs their overall range. Here is an expanded range. Give me a range you think their calling with on the flop and ill run the equity.

    5zjq7fclekx7.png

    w6ye219rrdq1.png
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,432 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin please explain why future run outs favors the callers range? If a diamond comes on the turn, then yes it favors the callers range, but what about the 82% of the time diamond doesn't come? 2nd

    8, 9, J, Q, K, A, D are all bad cards for you on the turn. About 25 out of 47 cards are bad and favors callers range.


    A while ago I played second pair as the PFR in MW pots passively like it was suggested here, but time and time again, my selective memory is telling me that one of two things always happen......
    I never make my decision based on selective memory, again another basic gambler mistake

    We are presenting you with equity and range advantage on future run outs. You have been playing poker since May. Some of the best grinders who play for a living and have climbed up the higher levels are giving you very solid advice.

    You mentioned you were 86'd from table games for taking advantage or whatever. I think you still have that black jack gambling mindset. Your betting to see what happens. Lets bet and evaluate on the next card.

    Go back and read other threads where people suggested passive play with 2nd pair. Maybe if you think you have the best hand now you can check call. You said its an expensive guessing game though. Your selective memory is getting the best of you.

    Maybe call Bart on one of his call in shows and see what CLP thinks about this hand. What training sites are you a part of?

    Im 99% positive RCP and CLP will disagree with your line. Two of the top live poker training sites.

    Wish you best of luck and look forward to a range on this texture that you are ahead of.
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 278 ✭✭✭
    edited March 11
    I'm not at my computer right now so I can't give you the exact range I assigned, I'm posting all this from the memory of the analysis I've done before. But I assigned around 300 combo preflop calling range, this should include everything from 64s to QTs and 67o+. You might want to use flopzilla to run this because poker cruncher calculates the equity assuming you see all 5 cards. On flopzilla you'll see how rare a range can beat middle pair on the flop. Betting flop and sometimes the turn prevents a lot of that range from seeing all 5 cards.

    Also A or K high flops are bad for betting middle pair multiway, cause a lot of suited hands people call with include A or K.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,432 ✭✭✭✭
    It pains me to read some of the logic, so I found this video and watched it again. Video is really helpful to live play.

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,432 ✭✭✭✭
    Also A or K high flops are bad for betting middle pair multiway, cause a lot of suited hands people call with include A or K.

    So you think you should check KT4r and bet JdTc4d? What board favors callers range?

    Preflop ranges seem pretty wide. You opened 5x and you assign 65o and 64s? You talk about getting them to fold Jx on the turn. What do you think people in EP and MP are folding preflop if you assign a calling range of a 5bb open 65o? If they are calling 65o preflop do you really expect such loose players to fold top pair?
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 278 ✭✭✭
    @Austin I'm not sure where you play poker, but here in Vegas, in 1/2-2/5 games, people cold call with trash ALL THE TIME. 300 combos pre is being generous, you see people calling with trash like K5s and Q8s whether on the strip or in a local casino.

    Maybe that's where our discrepancy is, because we are trying to play against different crowds. Maybe where you play people 3 bet or fold their trash. My crowd has such a wide preflop calling range, and miss the flop a large percentage of the time, and will fold to aggression on the flop or later streets. Will I lose to top pair sometimes? Sure. But more often than not they'll call me one or more streets with worse second pairs or draws.

    In the video you posted there was only one hand that the hero had second pair, which was the hand where he had KK on a A high flop. A high flops (and to a certain extent K high flops) are very different from other flops. On an A high flop, that calling range is more than twice as likely to hit top pair than a J high flop. The video is very good to get started on multiway C-betting, but you have to explore other flop textures and situations for deeper understanding, with good old fashion flopzilla and excel.

    @Austin I respect all the posts you are making on this forum, showing your willingness to learn and improve. I am 100% sincere on all my posts, and I find my biggest "pay jump" in my short poker career was find ways to make thin value bets on every street. Again, maybe we are playing against completely different population propensities. But hey, if we are all making money and improving we should be happy.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,096 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    A while ago I played second pair as the PFR in MW pots passively like it was suggested here, but time and time again, my selective memory is telling me that one of two things always happen:

    1. I check, somebody bets OTF or OTT or both, I fold OTF or OTT, and the hand went to SD and I would have won the pot if I called down. (I do call down sometimes, but it’s always an expensive guessing game)
    2. Checks around on all streets, and a guy wins with a rivered pair who would absolutely folded if someone bet the flop.

    It's not that simple, even if we ignore the possibility of your memory being "selective". The specifics of the hand example in the OP has more detail than anything quoted above, and even then as persuadeo said, there is still some vacuum there.

    Before I read anything anyone else wrote, and before I even finished your first post, the thing that caught my attention like a neon light was the fact that you auto c-bet this flop into 3 opponents whose collective ranges slap this board in the mouth. As a funny poster once wrote on another forum in response to "what does my opponent have here?": "Jack ten. They always have jack ten." I'm sure you can extrapolate.

    If you think no one will have JJ or TT here as well, then I disagree based on the info provided and general player pool.

    One point here is that you have near 0 fold equity, and fold equity is an important part of any c-betting strategy when you don't flop the nuts (and sometimes even when you do.)

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,096 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    I find my biggest "pay jump" in my short poker career was find ways to make thin value bets on every street.

    It would seem to me that based on the size of your jump and the definition of "thin", this is unlikely.

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,096 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    @Austin please explain why future run outs favors the callers range? If a diamond comes on the turn, then yes it favors the callers range, but what about the 82% of the time diamond doesn't come?

    If we say "runouts favor the caller's range", the probabilities of each are already taken into account. If the only thing you could possibly lose to was a flush it would be different. Also we're mixing units incorrectly. Run outs refers to turn and river, and the 82% figure (which really should be 80% btw) is for one card to come only. For a run out, we should be talking about closer to 66%.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,096 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Bb checks
    Hero bets
    Co has position on you
    Btn has position on you

    BB also has relative position on him.

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What's going on here is that Yanming has discovered something that many low stakes live and online players are into - bet folding your way through the field.

    It often works, precisely and really only because their opponents are so very poor at poker. The inability of Vegas regs to not recognize overdone frequencies and not capture all the potential dead money the bet-folding strategy brings to the game is almost astonishing. The things we discuss here, even at a site dedicated to red chip games, are often very theory based, or at least, ready to tackle more rational opponents.

    In a relational game, your opposition matters. In a way, Yanming can say his strategy is far superior to the rational one, if he is never getting punished when he is constantly merged when he should be polarized.

    A great spot to be in and a powerful explanation for for a high win rate.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,096 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you're describing a strategy, that sounds very plausible. If you're giving an alternative definition of "thin value", then it's different than what I understand it to be, but I could be wrong.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,432 ✭✭✭✭
    @Yanming Z i think you missed the overall guideline of the video. I couldn't find one with your exact hand or board texture but all the info you need is in there. From giving up on draws, folding top pair to aggression, continuing in a low SPR pot with TP+ or draws. This is the key, where he says TP+. NOTICE split didn't say 2nd pair.

    I provided equities with 5 cards to come your right. I also provided equities of only being against one player where your equity is 30-40%. Lets throw in 2 more players and watch your equity drop to under 20% then convince us that your ahead in the hand.

    To say your opponents are loose passive preflop is fine. That is the general player pool tendencies. We are all on board with that. Then you say you can get them to fold top pair on later streets.

    Turn ($160) :JD: :TC: :4D: :3H:
    BB ($250) checks
    H bets 120?
    V1 ($150)

    In a lot of videos pros talk about having a solid preflop range to make postflop easier. What are you going to do with A10 on a different turn? This was in the video as well and the point many of us are trying to get across to you. Even on a favorable turn which improves your range to two pair you are still considering folding. Because you stated you can get your player pool off Jx are you now shoving this turn?

    You state the players think your one of the tightest players on the table, yet you have a propensity to barrel 2nd pair. Doesn't sound too tight. Maybe that was only preflop you were talking about.

    Your logic seems all over the place where the players are willing to call any thing yet the first 3 or 4 players all folded. What hands are they folding?

    I don't think our player pools are that different. I also the fact they call too wide preflop and miss a lot of flops so I have a decent cbet%. I'm also wel aware of flop texture and their ranges. This is the part your missing.

    Ok you get them to fold 22-88 and 65o-87o which you are already way ahead of. Now you get them to continue with a range that has more equity than your hand. I can see you playing an extremely high variance game. Always low spr pots due to 100bb or less effective stacks, barreling 2nd pair trying to make them fold top pair, MW pots being raised 5x creating 4 spr or less.

    Is there any hand you are checking on JT4dd?
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 278 ✭✭✭
    @Austin Not sure what you mean by "my logic is all over the place". My last few posts were no longer about the specific hand I started this thread with, they were all about betting second pair OTF in general. Please read my post about my analysis again. The main reason to bet OTF was never to get top pair to fold, at least not on the flop, maybe on later streets after evaluating who called you OTF and what turn card falls. That why you shouldn't be betting on A, K high boards where top pair are much more likely and no over cards are coming on future streets.

    Near the end of my analysis post, I clear stated that the 2 conditions for betting 2nd pair OTT are:

    1. Multiple draws are available This is for pure value, because you are gonna have the best hand 55% of the time in a 4 way pot, and because the draws will always call you.

    2. Your pair is low (A4s on 942 for example). This is because for each opponent who holds 2 over cards to your pair you knock out with a small bet OTF, greatly increase your chance of winnings at SD.

    And I should add a third condition that @persuadeo brought up in his post, and the most important one:

    3. The table rarely punishes you with aggression.

    Now on the JT4 board I posted, the bet on the flop was for pure value, all the straight draws and flush draws are gonna call. OTT any brick card is a good card for me, and I will re-evaluate to see whether to double barrel or not. In this specific hand I got 2 callers and have to proceed with caution, but more often than not I will get 1 caller or no callers.

    For this flop I will be check-folding pairs 99 or worse, or any AXs hands that completely missed the board.

    Oh and for the results of this hand, I ended up folding because BB looked way too strong, at this point he had all 16 combos of KQ, 3 combos of 44, and 6 combos of AJ, and 6 combos of JT, V1 showed 55 for another 0 equity bluff, and V2 showed KQ for the nuts.

    I wanna make an additional point that I was capable of folding here because the callers on the flop has their range more defined. Imagine if the flop gets checked around and BB leads the turn, for probably more than the half pot bet I made OTF, I was gonna have to call it off or put in a raise. And when I face a shove on the river I will be in bluff catching mode which I absolutely hate.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,432 ✭✭✭✭
    1. Multiple draws are available This is for pure value, because you are gonna have the best hand 55% of the time in a 4 way pot, and because the draws will always call you.

    Can you give me 3 other ranges that call the flop and you have the best hand 55% of the time? Where are you getting this # from?
    2. Your pair is low (A4s on 942 for example). This is because for each opponent who holds 2 over cards to your pair you knock out with a small bet OTF, greatly increase your chance of winnings at SD.

    942r is much different texture then JdTc4d.

    What are you accomplishing with your bet with AT on JdTc4d? Is it a value bet? Is it a bluff? You are getting called here probably close to 80% of the time, which is why I ask what are you going to do oop on a brick turn JdTc4d3h? Are you going to double barrel for value? Are you double barreling as a bluff? Your plan with 2nd pair seems very unclear.
    @Austin Not sure what you mean by "my logic is all over the place". My last few posts were no longer about the specific hand I started this thread with, they were all about betting second pair OTF in general.

    This explains quite a bit. You post a hand, but then decide this is not going in the direction you attended it to, so you change it to why people bet 2nd pair in general.

    Do you now see why AT on JdTc4d is not a good bet?
    future run outs are not in your favor
    SPR is low
    oop
    expensive guessing game
    board favors callings range (equity)
    That why you shouldn't be betting on A, K high boards where top pair are much more likely and no over cards are coming on future streets.

    Given you block some AQ, AK, Tx, you dont think villain having top pair is very likely given a cold call range in a 4 way pot? The percentage some has a flush draw here is a maximum of 12% if they call with all suited cards. I do not disagree about betting ace or king high flops with out top pair. Ax is a heavy part of their range.

    Overall, I'm just curious what your resolution was on the hand you posted. I'm not concerned about betting 2nd pair on 942 board. Could probably bet your entire range on that board.
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 278 ✭✭✭
    edited March 11
    @Austin Yes I strictly mean preflop when I say I'm tight. I label myself as a TAG player, the only difference between me and a LAG is that I play less hands, I will be equally aggressive post. You'll see me folding for hours at the table, but every hand I play I'm willing to put my stack in the middle for thin value or as a bluff.

    IMO a good LAG is basically a more developed TAG. They start out playing with a tighter range and master every combo in their range, then start expanding their range to become a LAG over years of experience. There are a lot of young guys nowadays skip being a TAG and go straight to LAG style, these players are not winning players as their ranges are incredibly imbalanced and very bluff heavy.

    I see a lot of people on this forum throw the term TAG around to describe OMC type players who folds almost every hand and always showdown the nuts. These people are not tight aggressive (TAG), they are tight passive, which IMO is not a profitable way of playing.
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