AA on a wet board

K1aLadK1aLad Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
In the flop I bet big for value, every draw and over pair can pay.
Turn is a nasty card completing many draws, but I thought I still have some value from over pairs, and maybe AxKh. Not sure anymore about the bet. Maybe a check call was better?
In the river I don't think I can bet and get paid by worse hands.
The sizing of the river bet by villain looks like a pure value. On the other hand, my hand looks exactly like an over pair and it is an easy spot for a bluff..

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.25(BB)
CO ($36.17)
BTN ($27.5) (VPIP: 24, PFR: 14, 3Bet Preflop: 7.5, Hands: 394)
SB ($27.97)
BB ($31.68)
HERO ($26.1)
EP ($23.52)
MP ($26.5)
MP ($12.92)
HJ ($46.78)

Dealt to Hero :Ah :Ac

HERO Raises To $1 (Rem. Stack: 25.1), EP Folds, MP Folds, MP Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Calls $1 (Rem. Stack: 26.5), SB Folds, BB Folds

Flop ($2.35) :8h :6h :7s
HERO Bets $2.02 (Rem. Stack: 23.08), BTN Calls $2.02 (Rem. Stack: 24.48)

Turn ($6.39) :8h :6h :7s :5h
HERO Bets $3.22 (Rem. Stack: 19.86), BTN Calls $3.22 (Rem. Stack: 21.26)

River ($12.83) :8h :6h :7s :5h :6s
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $9.09 (Rem. Stack: 12.17), HERO Folds

BTN wins $21.21

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,503 ✭✭✭✭
    Someone should work on his UTG preflop ranges and how these hit the board
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think you played it well. BTN does have range advantage on this board, but you can still have 87s+, 66+, etc. There are enough value hands where I like betting this board. In general vs some players I am going to check call this board because of the texture and the fact an over pair can't stand the heat.

    The fact that you have :AH: in your hand makes a big difference. You can bet and call a raise, you can check call or even check raise but that may be a little spewy. Where as AcAs type hand you will have to give up to aggression a fair amount.

    I don't think villain is turning QQ-TT into a bluff here so i like your bet bet fold line. I wouldn't size down too much on the turn vs a tag though because you will give a lot of info away. This player seems pretty fishy so mixing up your bet size is fine.
  • K1aLadK1aLad Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Someone should work on his UTG preflop ranges and how these hit the board

    Let's take a tight UTG range of: 55+, AJ+, KJs+, QJs+
    and a BTN range of: 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s+, A5o+,K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o+

    Against this range, I have 52% equity on the flop.
    If I take the Ah out of his range, it improves my equity a little more.
    Don't you think I should bet here?
  • K1aLadK1aLad Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    I think you played it well. BTN does have range advantage on this board, but you can still have 87s+, 66+, etc. There are enough value hands where I like betting this board. In general vs some players I am going to check call this board because of the texture and the fact an over pair can't stand the heat.

    The fact that you have :AH: in your hand makes a big difference. You can bet and call a raise, you can check call or even check raise but that may be a little spewy. Where as AcAs type hand you will have to give up to aggression a fair amount.

    I don't think villain is turning QQ-TT into a bluff here so i like your bet bet fold line. I wouldn't size down too much on the turn vs a tag though because you will give a lot of info away. This player seems pretty fishy so mixing up your bet size is fine.

    I don't have many 87s-T9s in my UTG range. This is full ring, and I try to play tight from UTG.
    Does this change the answer?

    I don't think villain will bluff his QQ-TT. What about Khx, Qhx, Jhx?
    By the river, it's pretty obvious I don't have many flushes in my range.

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    K1aLad wrote: »
    Red wrote: »
    Someone should work on his UTG preflop ranges and how these hit the board

    Let's take a tight UTG range of: 55+, AJ+, KJs+, QJs+
    and a BTN range of: 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s+, A5o+,K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o+

    Against this range, I have 52% equity on the flop.
    If I take the Ah out of his range, it improves my equity a little more.
    Don't you think I should bet here?
    I don't have many 87s-T9s in my UTG range. This is full ring, and I try to play tight from UTG

    You don't have 87s in your range but you think btn has J8s and Q9o?

    My answer is that hero @K1aLad (You) played the hand well and have clear value bet for value on flop and turn. You don't have a good price on the river so you folded. How do you disagree with me agreeing that you played the hand well?

    Your comments however and ranges assigned I will disagree with. Work your way through the hand and let us know why you think they will bluff with Khx and what part of Khx is in their range on the preflop, flop, and turn. Your applying villain floats very wide to have a naked Khx as a bluff.
  • K1aLadK1aLad Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    You don't have 87s in your range but you think btn has J8s and Q9o?
    Not sure I understood the comment, why can't my UTG range be much tighter than villian's BTN range?

    Austin wrote: »
    My answer is that hero @K1aLad (You) played the hand well and have clear value bet for value on flop and turn. You don't have a good price on the river so you folded. How do you disagree with me agreeing that you played the hand well?
    Actually, I was wondering if me not having 87s in my UTG range changed the fact you agreed with the way I played the hand :)

    Anyway, I will do my work on this hand..
    Thanks!
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,455 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Connect this hand to the yanming A10 hand and the conceptual answer will become apparent.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 711 ✭✭✭
    edited March 12
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Connect this hand to the yanming A10 hand and the conceptual answer will become apparent.

    I'm sure OP is playing online in Las Vegas where auto-cbetting merged on any board is correct, especially OOP
  • K1aLadK1aLad Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    @Austin, @Red, @persuadeo, thanks for the comments.
    @Sully, I'm not playing online in Las Vegas :)

    I did some work, found some of my mistakes, and these are the ranges I came with.
    To make it simple, I will assume villain either calls or folds, never raises..
    I guess villain will 3bet QQ-AA most of the times .

    Villain's calling range preflop:
    JJ-22, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s+, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o
    On this flop, I have 74% equity against this range.

    After calling my bet on the flop, villain's range should look like:
    55-JJ, A5s, A8s, A9s, Kh7h+, K5s, K8s, K9s, Qh9h+, Q5s, Q8s, Q9s, Jh8h+, J9s, Th9h+, 98s, AxKh, AxQh, AxJh, AxTh, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9
    On the turn, I have 40% equity against this range.

    After calling my bet on the turn, villain's range should look like:
    55-JJ, A8s, A9s, Kh7h+, K8s, K9s, Qh9h+, Q8s, Q9s, Jh8h+, J9s, Th9h+, 98s, AxKh, AxQh, AxJh, AxTh, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9
    On the river, I have 23.3% equity against this range

    I guess villain checks back most of his straights, every over pair, and most of his top pair hands:
    99-JJ, A8s, A9s, K8s, K9s, Q8s, Q9s, J9s, 98s, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9

    Villain bets for value his boats and his flushes:
    55-88, Kh7h+, Qh9h+, Jh8h+, Th9h+

    Which hands did villain totally miss?
    AxKh, AxQh, AxJh, AxTh

    This is a minor part of his range, and villain will give up some of the times.

    I need to pay 9$ to win 31$ pot - I need more than 29% equity for a +ev call.
    I don't have enough equity for this call so this is a fold.

    I would love to hear other opinions.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,503 ✭✭✭✭
    edited March 12
    great job @K1aLad . You should do that for every hand which put you in a difficult spot - be it a winning or a losing hand.
    You can then think about with different scenarii: what if you check instead of bet? What if Villain raises instead of calling? etc.

    For this hand, I think you're too optimistic i.e. giving Villain a too wide calling range (which, also, decrease your equity as well). For example, I don't see Villain calling on the turn with Q8s (TP2K no draw) - there are less extreme combos you pick up and I'd see Villain folding too.

    Which software do you use for such analysis? I advise you to use Flopzilla as you can select which kind of hand you want to select. Paid software, best investment you can do in your poker career.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I agree with @Red. The calling range assigned is way too wide. Vpip may be 24%, but that is raised from his attempt to steal. Calling ranges are usually 5-15%, if guy is super loose you can use 24%. Check out split suit poker videos (poker bank) on YouTube. He has some nice cbet videos roughly 30 minutes long that may help.

    Here is a 23% calling range you can assign preflop to loose players.

    nyb84lw8woo2.png

    Now on a flop of
    Flop ($2.35) :8h :6h :7s

    What range continues?
    Pairs
    55, 66,77,88,99, TT, JJ
    Other hands
    Kh9h-KhQh, Ah2h-Ah7h, Ah9h-AhKh, suited broadways of hearts, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 86s, 75s, 98s, T9s, J9s,

    Forgot you had Ah* so that removes the AhXh combos.....

    I think giving more than a 23% range to someone is not very likely online based on player playing 24/14 at least.

    I think your mixing up BTN opening range compared to cold call range vs Ep player. Even 23% is pretty loose. A lot of off suite broadways are folded as well as 1 gappers. Most of the time it is around 12% or less online.

    You definitely on the right track.
  • K1aLadK1aLad Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    For this hand, I think you're too optimistic i.e. giving Villain a too wide calling range (which, also, decrease your equity as well). For example, I don't see Villain calling on the turn with Q8s (TP2K no draw) - there are less extreme combos you pick up and I'd see Villain folding too.
    I agree. I need to remove most of the Q8s combos from villain's river range, maybe leave only one suit.

    Red wrote: »
    Which software do you use for such analysis? I advise you to use Flopzilla as you can select which kind of hand you want to select. Paid software, best investment you can do in your poker career.
    I'm currently using Equilab but will check Flopzilla.

    Austin wrote: »
    I think your mixing up BTN opening range compared to cold call range vs Ep player. Even 23% is pretty loose. A lot of off suite broadways are folded as well as 1 gappers. Most of the time it is around 12% or less online.
    That is a very good point, I will try it again with the updated ranges.

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