Trips Q OOP against a huge river shove

K1aLadK1aLad Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
Villain in the CO is an aggressive player. Many double and triple barrels.
I didn't 3bet from two reasons:
1. The short stack limper will probably call and make it profitable for villain. I didn't want to play a huge pot OOP against villain.
2. I would rather 3bet with my wicker hands, and when called and missed - give up on the flop.

On the flop, I don't think I can lead and get called by many worse hands. My range is mainly made of air, some low pocket pairs and some trips combos. A donk will look super nutted, and even If I get called by worse, I probably only get one street of value. Villain being aggressive and likes to barrel, might try to barrel me out of the hand.

The turn is a good card for many backdoor flush and straight draws. Looking at the hand now, I think I must either lead or check raise the turn. I can't give another free card.

The river completes the backdoor flush, and villain shoved. I was very confused by the huge shove. It didn't make sense to me. Maybe villain tried to look bluffy?
Anyway, villain got me confused and I called.

Looking at the sizing of the over bet, the effective bet is 20$ into 11$ pot - if it's a bluff, I need to fold more than 67% of the time in order for it to be profitable. Does villain have any bluffs here?

Let's look at villain's ranges:
Pre Flop:
Standard 25% PFR
44+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T9s,98s,A7o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

Flop:
Nothing really changed, because villain expected me to fold the majority of my range to his flop bet. I'll assume it is the same range.
44+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T9s,98s,A7o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

Turn:
Now villain must have some equity in order to fire again.
44, 99, TT+, Ah2h+, Ac2c+, Kh8h+, Qh8h+, Jh8h+, Kc8c+, Qc8c+, Jc8c+, Tc9c, 9c8c, A9o, QT+, JT

River:
After I called twice, villain knows I have something and the obvious hand is trips Q with medium kicker.
Villain doesn't shove with his medium-strong hands, so his range after the shove is made of monsters and missed draws.
99,44,Ah2h+,Ac2c+,Kh8h+,Kc8c+,Jh8h+,Jc8c+,JT

But does villain have so many bluffs when I most likely have the trips? probably not.
So maybe villain's range is more similar to:
99,44,Ah2h+,Kh8h+,Jh8h+,JcTc, AcJc+

Against this range I'm crashed with 11.5% equity.


Comments and other thoughts are very welcome.


Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.25(BB)
MP ($38.82)
HJ ($71.66)
CO ($44.17) (VPIP: 30, PFR: 23, 3bet: 10.1, hands: 4880)
BTN ($25)
HERO ($25)
BB ($14.14)
UTG ($11.15) (VPIP: 40, PFR: 5, 3bet: 0, hands: 73)
EP ($51.73)
MP ($18)

Dealt to Hero :Qd:Kd

UTG Calls $0.25 (Rem. Stack: 10.90), EP Folds, MP Folds, MP Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.75 (Rem. Stack: 43.42), BTN Folds, HERO Calls $0.65 (Rem. Stack: 24.25), BB Folds, UTG Calls $0.5 (Rem. Stack: 10.40)

Flop ($2.50) :Qh:4c:Qc
HERO Checks, UTG Checks, CO Bets $1 (Rem. Stack: 42.42), HERO Calls $1 (Rem. Stack: 23.25), UTG Folds

Turn ($4.50) :Qh:4c:Qc:9h
HERO Checks, CO Bets $3.25 (Rem. Stack: 39.17), HERO Calls $3.25 (Rem. Stack: 20.00)

River ($11.00) :Qh:4c:Qc:9h:7h
HERO Checks, CO Bets $39.17 (allin) (Rem. Stack: 0.00), HERO Calls $20 (allin) (Rem. Stack: 0.00)

CO shows :Th:Jh

CO wins $68.17

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    With out blockers to clubs or hearts I am raising the turn maybe the flop. Bet sizing on the flop is pretty weak by villain then increased on the turn.

    You lose to 44, 99, AQ, Q9s that's about it. There is a ton of hands you can push off their equity or force them to gamble.

    I can see flat calling if you have like Kh or Kc in your hand to balance some of your flat call frequency.
  • K1aLadK1aLad Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    @Austin, I agree that the turn is a raise.
    Would is you'r flat range?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    K1aLad wrote: »
    @Austin, I agree that the turn is a raise.
    Would is you'r flat range?

    What is your preflop calling range from the SB? How do those hand hit this board and future run outs? It can actually get pretty complex the higher you go. For example maybe i float the flop with :AC::JH: and on a club turn i turn my hand into a bluff and barrel the river. Really depends on your skill set and how the two players think of each other. Some days if i think he is drawing or is a lag ill call down with 66.

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