explain me the answer of this core question please

michael roekelmichael roekel Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
2. Question
You are considering a bluff squeeze. You think Gary will fold 80% of the time when you squeeze, and Nicole will fold 60% of the time. How often can you expect BOTH players to fold to your squeeze?

33% of the time
48% of the time
56% of the time
67% of the time
80% of the time

Comments

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,363 ✭✭✭✭✭
    multiply the two probabilities
  • michael roekelmichael roekel Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
    that will end upon 48% but the right answer was 56%
  • michael roekelmichael roekel Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
    nevermind its 48% im so not awake sorry
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,363 ✭✭✭✭✭
    well I guess I have lost the way. someone else will answer better.
  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 580 ✭✭✭
    How is this question at all useful to a CORE strategy?
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    I'm guessing that here is what they did (incorrectly):

    They figured that Gary is not folding 20% of the time. That eats up part of the 60% of Nicole's fold rate. 20% of 60% = 12%.

    Similarly, they figured that Nicole is not folding 40% of the time. That eats up part of the 80% of Gary's fold rate. 40% of 80% = 32%.

    Thus, there is 12% + 32% = 44% of the time when Gary and Nicole do not fold, thus leaving 100% - 44% = 56% of the time when they (incorrectly) believe that both do fold.

    What's the error there?
    They didn't account for the fourth scenario of both Gary and Nicole calling. Of the times when they do not both fold, there are times when both call: 20% of 40% = 8%. So, 44% they do not BOTH fold, and 8% of the time they BOTH call. That's 52% of the time when a scenario other than both folding occurs, leaving 48% of the time when they both call. Of course, multiplying the two percentages is the way to go. This just shows that they didn't account for the fourth option of both Gary and Nicole calling.
    (Note: I didn't isolate raising here because raising is really a subset of calling in this equation.)
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,876 -
    edited March 2018
    Yosh wrote: »
    How is this question at all useful to a CORE strategy?

    Knowing how fold equity changes in HU vs multiway pots is important so that yoy plan your c-betting knowing better what FE you can estimate.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Player 1 opens 3bb
    Player 2 calls 3bb
    Bb hero squeezes.

    What's the break even raise size to break even if its 48%? Pot?
  • WickedWicked Red Chipper Posts: 61 ✭✭
    Is it 5.5 B.B.?

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