Hated the fold, hated the call

SicSemperSicSemper Red Chipper Posts: 96 ✭✭
1/2 live.
Effective stacks: $380

Villain: Fairly standard 1/2 range. In the upper 20 percent area, or thereabouts. Lot of limping, not a ton of continuing. Had a bit more aggression than your average 1/2 player (would make biggish-for-the-game $15 raises in- or out of position on occasion, would size down other times). Showdowns have ranged from strong hands to baby gappers, almost surely influenced by the high hands going on in the room. Stickier than most on flops but still folded to c-bets around half the time. Sticky pre. Never folded for a raise if limped in. Only weird hand of note was hero had raised in MP, and villain donked on a Q42 board to which hero folded. Here we go.

Hero (UTG) :Ac :Qh raises to $12
MP calls
Villain (BB) calls

Flop :Ac :5s :2d

BB checks
Hero bets $25
MP folds
BB calls

Turn :Qs

Villain donks $40
Hero calls (Villain was in the 9, hero was in the 1. Hero put 50 out after what looked like V's check. Dealer says it's just a call. Would have raised to ~$110 otherwise.)

River: :9s

Villain jams, has hero covered. .

I don't think he's bluffing. I think he thinks he has a hand. We're ahead of any of the other 2p combos, we're chopping with 4 combos of AQ. We're losing to straights and sets (and I believe 34, at the very least suited, is absolutely in his range from the big.) We're ahead of AK that's getting frisky. We're crushed by fluky flushes, of which something like :As :2s makes sense, and maybe a few other combos of spade aces, but not much else. Giving him all those combos makes this a clear fold, but the weaker ones don't jibe with the turn bet, and besides, is a nut flush overbet jamming here? Not buying it. Taking the flush combos out makes it a flip. What's your play?

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    River ($116) :Ac :5S: :2D: :Qs :9S:

    BB jams
    Hero ($328) ?

    So BB jammed 3x the pot.

    Calling 328 to win 444 getting 1.35 to 1 you need to be good here 42% of the time to break even.

    I think i easily fold here. Unless villain is doing this with :AS: :TH: as an advanced bluff strategy which i don't see in these games.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,116 ✭✭✭✭
    I don't think he's jamming this as a worse 2 pair. It's just such a bad overplay by him, especially since you are saying you have AK, AQ, or another strong hand. Even a set jam by him here is an overplay unless he thinks you will call it off with AK AQ, because you still can potentially have AA. Hands that fit the bill are wacky suited spade 2 gappers, or :AS: X that turned the flush draw, tried to set their own price by donking, and are going for max value against a perceived strong Ax hand. I'd probably let it go.
  • EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 857 ✭✭✭
    The turn smallish donk bet when the backdoor flush hit, screams :As :Xs

    I'm probably raising the turn especially this deep....
  • SicSemperSicSemper Red Chipper Posts: 96 ✭✭
    I ended up laying it down, but I still feel like jamming ~300 into ~180 was such a weird play. I can't fathom why the nut flush would do that instead of trying to extract around 100-150. That and the turn donk really hung me up. But I really couldn't suss much that made sense other than sandbagging straight, a set on the flop or turn, or at best, chopping AQ. I ended up defaulting to just not paying off a big river bet, but I wasn't super happy about it.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,499 ✭✭✭✭
    @SicSemper Big question you have to ask yourself is "what do they donkbet turn and 3x pot shove river for value that I bet?" If you don't beat much, not worth it.

    Then, maybe more easily, an easy rule against bad player / low stakes players is "don't pay them off". If they play like they have smth, then they usually have it. Don't pay them off.
    They may bluff once every blue moon. But if they don't regularly bluff enough for you to bluff catch, then you have to ALWAYS fold.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,679 ✭✭✭✭
    SicSemper wrote: »
    I ended up laying it down, but I still feel like jamming ~300 into ~180 was such a weird play. I can't fathom why the nut flush would do that instead of trying to extract around 100-150.

    One possibility: because it looks so fishy, he might get called enough on the overbet shove to more than make up for the value that he loses by not betting around $100-$150. Do the math: say that he gets called 75% of the time betting $100, 60% of the time betting $150, and 33% of the time betting $300. Betting $300 is, by far, the most profitable.

    Just one possibility. Occam's Razor might suggest a different one, but I wouldn't discount this entirely.

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