Facing overbet on river

Ryan URyan U Red Chipper Posts: 46 ✭✭
1/2 NL $250 effective

I don’t know much about the villain , he just returned from a dinner break and looks to be up a few buyins. He comes across as an action player and uses huge sizes pre.

Hero opens to $12 in ep with AsQs villain calls in BB


Flop ($25) JT4r villain checks and hero bets $15 Villian calls.
Turn ($55) JT4Tr chk chk
River Q villain leads for $75

I rarely face these overbets in these games so I was genuinely torn on what to do. What’s the play?

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Exploitive fold as Q is better for your range than his, so he is repping super strong hand donking into you.
  • NYCRyNYCRy Red Chipper Posts: 312 ✭✭✭
    How would we know? This is where hand histories fall apart for me a bit. Is this guy a solid, thinking, LAG player who will overbet with the goods knowing the Q hits your range? Or is he just a rec player who just likes to be aggressive when their opponent shows "weakness"(checking the turn)? If I don't have a lot of history with someone and are not sure how they are playing their ranges, etc and am planning on being at the table for another 5hrs I'm calling here because I don't want them thinking they can fold out most of my good hands with overbet bluffs whenever they like. I also don't think this flop is a must bet vs. this guy from the little info we have and that could change the nature of this hand a lot.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 197 ✭✭✭
    This looks like he missed a check-raise on the turn and he wants to make up for lost value. I think he shows up with a ten here a lot of the time. Most people aren't going to blast off into a card that hits you this hard with an overbet bluff.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    NYCRy wrote: »
    How would we know? This is where hand histories fall apart for me a bit. Is this guy a solid, thinking, LAG player who will overbet with the goods knowing the Q hits your range? Or is he just a rec player who just likes to be aggressive when their opponent shows "weakness"(checking the turn)? If I don't have a lot of history with someone and are not sure how they are playing their ranges, etc and am planning on being at the table for another 5hrs I'm calling here because I don't want them thinking they can fold out most of my good hands with overbet bluffs whenever they like. I also don't think this flop is a must bet vs. this guy from the little info we have and that could change the nature of this hand a lot.

    I don't think the 1\2 player pool over bets without nutted hands in general. They rarely try to bluff and ranges are played face up. Im less worried about a player trying to run me over until i seen a couple of over bets. I tend to give the 1st one credit.
  • The MuleThe Mule Red Chipper Posts: 770 ✭✭✭
    While the Q does hit Hero’s range better, his range is capped due to the check back on the turn. Villain has the uncapped range and can bet the river with a polarised range.

    If the river didn’t hit Hero’s range then I think Villain can/should bet smaller. Given this river puts a lot of pairs into Hero’s range, Villain can/should bet bigger with both value and bluffs. I think an overbet makes a lot of sense.

    Given the river improves Hero’s range, what does the forum think of a check-raise rather than an overbet for Villain ?

  • The MuleThe Mule Red Chipper Posts: 770 ✭✭✭
    Sorry just realised the Q brings in the straight. Please ignore my previous post.
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 294 ✭✭✭
    Whenever facing an overbet on the river, or any large bets, that puts you to a tough decision, I'd like to refer back to Doug Polk's concept of preventing your opponent from making auto profit. The rule is simple, the V is betting 75 into 55, so he needs a 58% fold frequency to make auto profit. In turn, you need to call with at least 43% of your range to keep him from making auto profit.

    Applying this concept here. Say your EP opening range is 88+ AQ+, AQ is actually within the bottom 50% of your range along with AA. Breaking it down further you'll see AK (16 combos), and TT-QQ (7 combos) is plenty to make up for ~50% of your opening range. So you should only call here with broadway or better.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,499 ✭✭✭✭
    Another way of seeing it is to answer the following question: "What the worst combos Villain bets for value that I beat?"

    Here the best Villain's value combo you beat is KQ. Do you see Villain donkbetting more than the pot with KQ ?
    On the other side, what are the best combos he could value donkbet? QT, QJ, all TX, 98, AK (esp. if rather loose-passive), ev. 44 (if V is not used to c-r). Many combos that crush AQ.

    Yes @Ryan U , you've to call sometimes to not be exploited - as explained @Yanming Z . But AQ is really not great here and can/should be easily lay down.
  • The MuleThe Mule Red Chipper Posts: 770 ✭✭✭
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    Whenever facing an overbet on the river, or any large bets, that puts you to a tough decision, I'd like to refer back to Doug Polk's concept of preventing your opponent from making auto profit. The rule is simple, the V is betting 75 into 55, so he needs a 58% fold frequency to make auto profit. In turn, you need to call with at least 43% of your range to keep him from making auto profit.

    Applying this concept here. Say your EP opening range is 88+ AQ+, AQ is actually within the bottom 50% of your range along with AA. Breaking it down further you'll see AK (16 combos), and TT-QQ (7 combos) is plenty to make up for ~50% of your opening range. So you should only call here with broadway or better.


    A few points on this:
    1. As @Austin mentioned, there is a low stakes population tendency to be value heavy when overbetting, so it is usually ok to be calling at less than the Minimum Defence Frequency (MDF) @Yanming Z is referring to.
    2. Villain has to call our flop bet and may face a turn bet in order to get the opportunity to have an exploitative bluff on the river, so calling at less than the MDF is not really as exploitable as a naive estimate would suggest. I think it is ok for us to call at less than the MDF given we basically gave up on the turn. I do think if we want to be balanced then maybe we might want to bluff some combos of AQ and AK on the turn.
    3. This actually applies to the range you get to the river with using this line. We would most likely not have our entire EP opening range in this spot. Say we bet our entire range on the flop and check back 88, 99, AK, AQ on the turn. Then if we call just AK on the river we are calling with 16 combos out of a total of 40, or 40%. I think this is close enough to the MDF of 42% necessary to avoid being exploited.
  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 570 ✭✭✭
    @The Mule I've seen this written (paying to get somewhere) in other places as well. Specifically in Janda's Applications. Are you able to expand your thoughts about #2 above? What is the math behind this idea?
  • The MuleThe Mule Red Chipper Posts: 770 ✭✭✭
    I think that's where I got the idea from as well, @Yosh.

    I'm making this up as I go along, so please point out any errors in the maths or the assumptions.

    Let's take a simpler situation where Villain is in position and is contemplating floating a turn bet with a zero equity hand in the hope of being able to make a profitable river bluff. It is assumes he will fold these hands if Hero bets.

    Let:
    Bt = Hero's Turn Bet
    Br = Villain's River Bet
    Pt = Pot at start of turn
    Fr = Probability Hero check-folds river
    Qr = Probability Hero bets river

    Then the EV of calling for Villain is:
    EV = Qr * -Bt + (1 - Qr) * Fr * (Pt + Bt) + (1 - Qr) * (1 - Fr) * (-Bt - Br)

    EV > 0 when
    Fr > [Qr * Bt + (1 - Qr) * (Bt + Br)] / [(1 - Qr) * (Pt + 2 * Bt + Br)]

    Ie. Villain has an auto-profit spot when Hero folds more than (Fr * 100) % of the time.

    The standard calculation used is Villain auto-profits if Fr > Br / (Pt + 2 * Bt + Br)

    You can see some similarities between the two equations.
    When Bt = 0 (ie. Villain does not have to call a turn bet) they are identical, as expected.
    As Bt increases, Hero can fold less and still not be exploitable (ie. MDF decreases).
    As Qr increases, Hero can fold less and still not be exploitable (ie. MDF decreases).
  • Ryan URyan U Red Chipper Posts: 46 ✭✭
    Sorry for the delay on result guys. I paid off villain's 8h9h for straight.

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