Guess my hand? What do you call with?

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,777 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited March 27 in Live Poker Hands
Effective stack around 400

Utg limp
Utg+1 aggro tag bets 30
*top of his range here 99+ AQ+
Hero co calls 30
Utg calls
Flop ($100) QJ3
Check x3
Turn ($100) Qj3Q
Check x3
River Qj3QA
Utg bets 45
Utg1 folds
Hero raises to 160

What hands do you call with on the river? What do you put me on?

Utg is loose passive. Like a 40\5 style.

River im putting utg on A2s-A9s, ATo....not sure what else he can have. KTs, Q9s,

I think his bet is some what weak. I can have QQ, JJ, AQ, KTs, ...not a whole lot of hands that i raise with here for value. Not sure if bluffing the river is wise.

I think I play a semi trappy/pot control style. Tight image overall. My calling range pre is suited broadways, 22-QQ, AQ, AK. 3bet kk+ AKs vs this player vs utg+1

No flush draw possible.

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,374 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    River im putting utg on A2s-A9s, ATo....not sure what else he can have. KTs, Q9s,
    I agree.

    If Vutg plays straightforwardly, he is capped at AX hands.
    I don't expect KTs very often even tho possible.
    I dismiss QX as I see him bet the turn (he had TP with no c-bet and no stab, turned trips... usually betting turn to build the pot).

    Note that you didn't take 33 in account, which is imho surely in his limp-call range. But I expect 33 to bet turn often.
    Austin wrote: »
    I think his bet is some what weak. I can have QQ, JJ, AQ, KTs, ...not a whole lot of hands that i raise with here for value. Not sure if bluffing the river is wise.
    QQ is 1 combo. Unlikely as you surely 3-bet preflop with.
    JJ, 4 combos, is surely a stab in position on flop or turn to build the pot, especially targeting QX, OESD, gutshots.
    AQ would be strongly dismissed for the same reason.
    KTs yeah, but 4 combos. (And do really have KTs ? aka calling with this pre against a tight villain UTG?)
    AKo: 12 combos. But as you're raising more than the pot, I expect you naturally having a pole range here, thus not AK.

    Also you should raise with bluffs. Which are here mostly tiny PP (22, 44-55) - if you don't stab turn with. But that's to be balanced... if Villain is loose-passive, he also may be sticky. So I'd rather NOT bluff here bc of Villain's profile.
    Austin wrote: »
    Guess my hand? What do you call with?
    Usually I expect your hand to be KTs+some tiny PP. Against this Villain I expect you to have AK and KTs.

    I think Villain will either fold 100% (or call with the weird QX/33 he didn't stab before with) or call very often with almost all his AX (as A2-AJ are similar due to the board) - depending on him being a station or not.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,777 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @red good break down. Neither of us have many combos of nutted hands the way it played out. Less than 10 combos most likely. Most of my valie hands I would tend to bet around half pot on flop and turn. KTs is in my range here either as a flat call or a 3 bet sometimes. I find i read people wel enough to get away from TP in a MW pot with a low SpR to make an easy fold. Bigger raises i tend to just fold say no limper and guy opens 30-35. Not flopping enough 2 pairs to make it profitable against a tight range.
    Hero had :2C: :2S: and villain thought for about 10 seconds and called KTo. Ran into top of his range here.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,374 ✭✭✭✭
    @Austin : why not stab turn ?
  • WhichWhich Red Chipper Posts: 114 ✭✭
    blinds? seems like 5/10 or 5/5 maybe?

    individual stack sizes?

    your immediate table image?

    player dynamics at the moment?

  • WhichWhich Red Chipper Posts: 114 ✭✭
    UTG is loose passive?

    Pre Flop? Post Flop? both?

    will this guy bluff enough ?

    do checks induce ? do small bets?

    What range do you expect him to bet/call with?

    Does he bet thin value or stab Turns?

    Donking range Flop?
  • PBF_ProdigyPBF_Prodigy Red Chipper Posts: 554 ✭✭✭
    22 seems like a really bad combo to bluff the river with and is probably spew even with razor reads. ;) However, it's an interesting exercise in thinking what hands you can reach the river with that actually should be bluff raising here.

    I think waiting for a Kx and Tx type hand is much better for bluffing, because you block AK (which miiiiight look you up), KQ, and KT all at once.

    It's kinda hard for you to have Kx that ISN'T KQ given the preflop action, so really KJs and JTs are your two options. KJ probably bets the turn, JT probably relies on the board suits to decide whether to bet or check the turn, so really I think your best bluff here are your KJs and JTs that you checked to the river, which should be a very small combo of hands. Which is fine, because you should have so few value hands here.

    But because you should have so value hands, if you're raising 22 here, your raising range is waaaay too wide compared to when you get looked up. Also, I'd raise larger to press Ax harder.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,374 ✭✭✭✭
    @ScandalMongering Zama
    I disagree. IMHO 22 is a way better bluff than KJ.

    22 doesn't have showdown value. You're sure to lose if you don't raise, except if Villain is aggro and will attack with many busted draw.
    (But then yes, you have to not bluff with all underpairs otherwise we're bluffing too much.)

    As you said, @Austin can't have many KX here to bluff. Do I like to bluff KJ ? No, I've showdown value and want to realize my equity against worst J, PP under J and busted draws.
    (Note that if Villain is straightforward, I'd give him credit for holding AX and I'd fold KJ. In this situation/on this board, I don't think such Villain would bet/fold AX)
  • PBF_ProdigyPBF_Prodigy Red Chipper Posts: 554 ✭✭✭
    edited March 30
    No, KJ and 22 have nearly the same amount of showdown value. I think if you just run a quick analysis on how much fold equity you gain from the removal effects of having a K or a T, you'll see it's much more +EV than 22.

    The point is, if you REALLY need to have bluffs here--in practice you could get away with having no bluffs here and lose nothing--and there are many superior, rare combinations you can show up with that are 1) mathematically higher EV to raise and 2) easier to recognize in over the board.

    If you don't think Villain going to bet fold AX, then why would you raise his UTG range here? That doesn't make any sense to me.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,777 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Stacks were about 350-400 effective on the river.

    Villain loose passive preflop and Postflop.

    Hero has tight image. Only bluff in a couple hours, mostly card dead so just keep folding preflop.

    I don't want to stab the turn cause AT, AK, Jx can still float and i will likely have to double barrel. I think betting the turn looks more bluffy than raising the river 4x.
  • PBF_ProdigyPBF_Prodigy Red Chipper Posts: 554 ✭✭✭
    If villain is passive postflop, then any river raise is probably spew. <3

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,777 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If villain is passive postflop, then any river raise is probably spew. <3

    Passive just means they won't bet 2nd pair. Top pair or better for betting river. Doesn't bet draws etc.
  • PBF_ProdigyPBF_Prodigy Red Chipper Posts: 554 ✭✭✭
    edited March 31
    Yes, and I stand by my answer just for that reason!
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,131 ✭✭✭✭✭
    But because you should have so value hands, if you're raising 22 here, your raising range is waaaay too wide

    I see this sort of misconception all the time. Raising 22 does not imply raising 33. Raising 22 now does not imply raising 22 all the time.

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,131 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think you're discounting his Qx hands too easily. I think many of these hands get checked on the flop simply because he's
    a) passive
    b) concerned he might be behind
    c) checking to the raiser with no intention of folding

    On the turn he checks of course because now he's slowplaying. (I didn't invent this style, don't blame me if it sounds inconsistent :)

    Anyway, I think there are enough combos of Ax he would bet with to make raising worthwhile sometimes. You are very polarized though (i.e. you will be viewed as such). You happened to run into the precise hand where none of this matters, but oh well.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Lots of good discussion but you represent absolutely nothing, not even k10 which has a natural bluff earlier and is strong enough to call a raise. If you are not betting k10 earlier that seems like a concern, not a reason to show up with it on the river.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,777 ✭✭✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Lots of good discussion but you represent absolutely nothing, not even k10 which has a natural bluff earlier and is strong enough to call a raise. If you are not betting k10 earlier that seems like a concern, not a reason to show up with it on the river.

    I agree. I realized I repped almost nothing, just figured V's range was capped at Ax very heavily and large bet would get him to fold.

    He was kinda hesitant calling with KT so I think my read was correct. I basically have QJ here or nothing. Not all combos of QJ though because most of them bet the flop. Given the 6x raise and rainbow board, only leaves me with 2 combos of QJs.

    Don't over estimate your fold equity on low stakes. :-)
  • PBF_ProdigyPBF_Prodigy Red Chipper Posts: 554 ✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    But because you should have so value hands, if you're raising 22 here, your raising range is waaaay too wide

    I see this sort of misconception all the time. Raising 22 does not imply raising 33. Raising 22 now does not imply raising 22 all the time.

    Yes, but even one combo of 22 is spew!

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