Is this luck or a good read?

N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
I was playing live 1/3 $500 capped bet.

Villain was late 20s early 30s black male. He tried to be aggressive, but I saw leaks in his play. Most of his wins were not on showdown, so he hadn't shown any cards.

Hero tried to have a TAG image, folded the first 2.5 rounds and didn't play a hand.

Then this hand:

Folded to Hero in the CO with :5d:4d and opened with $7. Stack $280

V called on the button $250, the blinds folded, heads up to the flop

Flop: :Qh:6h:2h ($18)

Hero bet $12, V called

Turn: :6d ($42)

Hero bet $30, V called.

Once V called on the turn, his continuing range included small flush, trips 6s, :TH: + draws

River: :9s ($102)

Hero's stack was $231 and V's stack was $201.

At this point, obviously hero's hand was no good, this was an absolute lowest in hero's range. V's range on the river was trips, flushes, and busted 10+ flush draw. However, I read about Miller's book about bad low stakes players were afraid to play for all the money without the nuts.

Hero jammed all-in on the river. V folded after taking one full minute to tank.

If we use the EV formula: (%W*$W) – (%L*$L), there's no way my %W could be bigger than %L.

Not sure about fold equity. But I'm sure his range was 70% trips or better.

Is this a lucky play or my read was really spot on? such a thin line

Do I need a solver to study this hand?

A week ago, I would be too afraid to make this play.

PS: I will tell what V folded

Comments

  • N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
    edited April 2018

    That being said, OOP with no real reads, have such a narrow three-street value range that I start by checking almost all my hands on the flop. The few hands I do bet are going to be nut flushes with a low kicker (to unblock your opponent from having Kh and Jh in their flop ralling ranges), some 66 and 22, and then indeed the flop gutshots (I think 43s is a fine bet as well).

    But if you bet all your combos of of these low gutshots here on every street, you're probably barreling slightly too heavy in this spot. So using your card position to self-randomize your frequency ensures you don't over-barrel here. But finding one the exact triple-barrels with this size without a computer = ballerrrrrrr

    Thanks. Actually, I did read your post about betting gut shots before I went to the casino for that session, so I did just that in this particular hands.

    I didn't put V on a fullhouse because fish always raised with FH on the turn
  • N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
    edited April 2018
    Wait, villain folded a FH?

    No he folded K high flush. The reason why I pushed on the river because I didn't put V on a FH, which means Qs or 2s, V would never have a Fullhouse on the turn or river.

    With a FullHouse, he would obviously call my river shove
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    1) this might be one of the worst table selections or nitty games I've seen. First its a 500 cap game, which should have some more aggressive and wider ranges in it. There are no limpers and you open 2.3bb and only get 1 caller. Time to get up and change tables.

    2) what are you trying to accomplish with your preflop sizing. Looks like your betting a weak hand that you have. Don't give the BB such a good price to complete vs a hand that profits from FE.

    3) your sizing is fine, but I think your ranging villain a bit too narrow. I don't think villain is floating random :TH: or :KH: hands on the turn when you bet 3\4th pot.

    Turn ($43) :Qh:6H::2H::6D:
    Villain called small raise pre, 2\3 cbet on the flop and now is calling 3\4th on the turn.

    2 combos of A6s
    2 combos or 65s
    2 combos of 76s

    14 combos of flushes (more if you include lower SC 1 gaps)
    8h7h, 9h8h, Th9h, JhTh, KhTh, KhJh, A3hh-AJhh

    Looking at 20 combos for top of his hand. Can throw in 3 combos of 22 and 1 combo of 66 as well as I don't think they are raising full house IP vs your sizing.

    Now you have the other part of his range, which I think makes up most of his combos. AhTx+, QxTh+, 88-JJ with a heart, AhQx.

    I don't see why anyone would fold king high flush here. Would you shove 22, 66, QQ? Maybe ace high flush? Your shove doesn't make a lot of sense to me because if you have a nutted hand which your trying to rep why on earth would you shove vs a villain that hasn't showed any aggression? Nutted hands should be targeting value. If im going to rep a nutted hand its one that I would check raise the turn or river with for stacks. Other than that I'm keeping consistent with my sizing and going for about $75 on the river if i have a boat, trips, or flush here.

    Consider yourself lucky to get a low stake player to fold a flush here. You don't need a solver for this hand. Solver probably tell you to check fold the flop without any blockers.

    Lucky guy was a nit. I might fold trips vs your line or TP but i can't find a fold with a flush here. Especially holding :KH: ...idk what his kicker is but he loses to only about 6 combos of flushes.

    Really annoys me someone can be this nitty given the action but that is what makes the game profitable one way or the other.

    Did he show only Kh or both cards? I've seen players show 1 heart and say they folded a flush and i just think their full of shit.

    As @kenaces said.. Get your ducks in a row before getting pio solver. This fancy play is going to hurt you in low stakes.

    Focus on why your raising preflop, what your trying to accomplish?

    Stick to some basic lines of betting 8+ outs or hands of value TP+ and extracting thin value with good bet sizing vs wider ranges.

    Hope your not result oriented about this hand. Most forum members are snapping you off here 98% of the time and the other 2% is a tank call.

    Now at 200bb ($600) would require some thought but less than 100bb to start its hard to get someone to fold here.

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