Did I calculate EV correctly?

BartholomewBartholomew Red Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
I'm watching an episode of PNIA, and I figured I would pause a hand and try to calculate the EV to make sure that I can do it correctly.

On a flop of 3d5h6s, hero (LJ) has 4c4d and checks. Villain (HJ) bets $500 into a $975 pot.

Using Equilab and a HJ range, I determined that hero has 65% equity against the HJ range I used, so I plugged in the numbers: (.65 * 1475) - (.35 * 500) and got a +EV of 783.75

Did I do this correctly?

Also, when I used Villain's actual cards (KsKc), I found hero's equity was 39% and redid the formula: (.39 * 1475) - (.61 * 500) = +EV 270.25

Best Answers


  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,055 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Also, when I used Villain's actual cards (KsKc), I found hero's equity was 39% and redid the formula: (.39 * 1475) - (.61 * 500) = +EV 270.25

    There is imprecision here and that will have consequences, even if the numbers add up right.

    1. You don't arrive at a +EV, you get an EV, which will be a positive number, zero, or negative. So the answer is EV=270.25, or EV is +270.25 if you really must include a + to clarify it from a -.

    The EV separates the action from the EV of folding, which is zero.

    Not +EV 270.25. That's redundant, and so, a little strange.

    If the answer was negative, are you going to tell us it was -EV -XXX, which might mean it was in fact positive? Or do it consistently with -EV +XXX? Or -EV XXX?

    2. You don't precise whether the 500 is all in or not. So you can't get an answer unless you assume what Adam did or if you say you are asking for a one street EV, which in not overall EV of continuing with this hand.
  • WickedWicked Red Chipper Posts: 61 ✭✭
    So...I am confused now. My understanding was that we use this equation to find the ev for this situation to see if continuing is going to be profitable. Is this incorrect? If so how should I be looking at EV
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 510 ✭✭✭
    edited April 2018
    It only works if the bet is an all-in (or you're on the river and you are deciding whether to call or not). If on future streets more bets (and raises) can be made, the EV formula simply doesn't work.

    Say you have a flush draw on the flop and villain bets pot. You're getting 2:1 so you need to be right 33% by the end of the hand. You will hit your flush 35% of the time, so the application of the formula would tell you it's +EV. The problem is that if you know villain is very likely to bet pot again on the turn, you chasing your flush draw on the flop is a disaster even though the application of the EV formula might tell you it's +EV.

    When we're not talking about all-in situations (or any other situation where no more money will go into the pot), the actual EV is too hard to compute by hand because the hand can go so many different ways.

  • WickedWicked Red Chipper Posts: 61 ✭✭
    Thank you for clearing that up for me.

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