One $5/10 HH from me

Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,191 ✭✭✭✭
edited April 26 in Live Poker Hands
Just want to drop this in here:

Guy HJ opens $30 (4K effective)
We call 98o BU (cover)
BB calls

Flop 873r one diamond
BB checks
OR bets $50
We raise $140
BB Folds
OR calls

Turn 6d
Checks
We bet $400
He calls

River Ks
Check
We move in

Thoughts?
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Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Guy HJ opens $30 (4K effective)
    We call 98o BU (cover)
    BB calls

    Flop ($95) 873r one diamond
    BB checks
    OR bets $50
    We raise $140
    BB Folds
    OR calls

    Turn ($375) 6d
    Checks
    We bet $400
    He calls

    River ($1175) Ks
    Check
    We move in $3430 Effective.

    Are you usually raising all your sets here on the flop? Looks like 65s, T9s, J9s, 33,77,88, 87s, J10s (3 combos for gutter +bdfd).

    What is villains profile? Rec? Pro? Tag? Lag? Station? Tilted?

    3x pot shove smells like Berkey...

    Basically trying to get villain to fold 99-QQ, AA here. Doubtful he folds KK.

    Obviously i don't play this high but i think 3x is too large. I think maybe 1800 would be better in terms of getting an over pair to fold. What other hands are you trying to get V to fold? Bottom set? 87s? I think 3x shove kinda reps T9s or nothing. Feels like a shove turns sets into bluffs. Maybe it turns 33 into a bluff and 88 and 77 for value?
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 26
    The river shove puts extraordinary pressure on any over pair (except for pocket kings); it hits your calling range hard.

    What do you know about OR's likely range and tendencies with that range? Would OR ever bluff-catch here with something that loses to your pair of eights? Any thoughts on what OR considers your image to be?

    Finally, why a river shove rather than an overbet? Do you think that the difference between betting, say, $2,000 and $3,500 generates enough additional fold equity to make up for the times that he calls and you lose? Or do you think that he bluff-catches often enough that this is as much a bluff as a disguised value bet?
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,191 ✭✭✭✭
    I have offsuit hands on BU too for what it’s worth.

    I have a mixed frequency of raising with all those hands you pointed out on flop.

    I think top two+ can shove fairly easily without too much concern TBH. His top end range will feel a need to raise Turn at high frequency.

    Villain is a volatile profile professional.

    @Austin
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,191 ✭✭✭✭
    The river shove puts extraordinary pressure on any over pair (except for pocket kings); it hits your calling range hard.

    What do you know about OR's likely range and tendencies with that range? Would OR ever bluff-catch here with something that loses to your pair of eights? Any thoughts on what OR considers your image to be?

    Finally, why a river shove rather than an overbet? Do you think that the difference between betting, say, $2,000 and $3,500 generates enough additional fold equity to make up for the times that he calls and you lose? Or do you think that he bluff-catches often enough that this is as much a bluff as a disguised value bet?

    I think anywhere between pot to 1.5x pot gets called by hands like 98/TT (because blocksers) and some over pairs (because curious)

    I don’t think he bluff catches w worse than an 8 ever.

    I think he think my image is someone who calls in position a lot. (He’s right) As a result I think it’s possible he views my range as wide.

    FWIW I think he’s a volatile profile (but a pro).

    I shoved because I’m unsure where his threshold lies TBH. I’m just confident that TT can call 1.5x pot and maybe some overpairs decide to call.

    Interesting discussion though is that I don’t have any logical bluffs so in theory I should size down.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I have offsuit hands on BU too for what it’s worth.

    I have a mixed frequency of raising with all those hands you pointed out on flop.

    I think top two+ can shove fairly easily without too much concern TBH. His top end range will feel a need to raise Turn at high frequency.

    Villain is a volatile profile professional.

    @Austin

    Ya 400bb deep will have a lot more off suite connectors as well. I do think the board favors your range more and you have a ton of value hands.

    Only issue I have, and its not a big issue, is the sizing. If you say 87o is for value here i would look to be called. You have like 80% value and 20% bluffs. So why size 3x when you want your range to be called by 99-QQ type hands? I have a hard time imaging getting called by QQ here. He would have to put you on J9o basically.

    What range do you give him? I think a lot of his range calls flop and turn and folds to most river bets of PSB+. For example 65s probably in his range as well as 3 combos of 99. 76s might peel the flop, so that's likely his strongest holding other than KK.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The river shove puts extraordinary pressure on any over pair (except for pocket kings); it hits your calling range hard.

    What do you know about OR's likely range and tendencies with that range? Would OR ever bluff-catch here with something that loses to your pair of eights? Any thoughts on what OR considers your image to be?

    Finally, why a river shove rather than an overbet? Do you think that the difference between betting, say, $2,000 and $3,500 generates enough additional fold equity to make up for the times that he calls and you lose? Or do you think that he bluff-catches often enough that this is as much a bluff as a disguised value bet?

    I think anywhere between pot to 1.5x pot gets called by hands like 98/TT (because blocksers) and some over pairs (because curious)

    I don’t think he bluff catches w worse than an 8 ever.

    I think he think my image is someone who calls in position a lot. (He’s right) As a result I think it’s possible he views my range as wide.

    FWIW I think he’s a volatile profile (but a pro).

    I shoved because I’m unsure where his threshold lies TBH. I’m just confident that TT can call 1.5x pot and maybe some overpairs decide to call.

    Interesting discussion though is that I don’t have any logical bluffs so in theory I should size down.

    if he is calling 8x and TT for 1.5x pot then i agree with shoving your whole range..i can look at the combos but its heavily value and very few bluffs so 3x pot maximizes your value long run.

    Did you run PIO on the sizing? I still haven't purchased it. I would guess your sets and straights would be shoves, as well as no show down hands like J9o. Then 1.5x pot with two pair hands like 76s, 87o, probably check back the hand you have. I don't have a computer brain, but i would guess

    It would pole your bluffs and nuts
    1.5x pot with medium value hands
    Check back everything else.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,191 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 26
    Austin wrote: »
    I have offsuit hands on BU too for what it’s worth.

    I have a mixed frequency of raising with all those hands you pointed out on flop.

    I think top two+ can shove fairly easily without too much concern TBH. His top end range will feel a need to raise Turn at high frequency.

    Villain is a volatile profile professional.

    @Austin

    Ya 400bb deep will have a lot more off suite connectors as well. I do think the board favors your range more and you have a ton of value hands.

    Only issue I have, and its not a big issue, is the sizing. If you say 87o is for value here i would look to be called. You have like 80% value and 20% bluffs. So why size 3x when you want your range to be called by 99-QQ type hands? I have a hard time imaging getting called by QQ here. He would have to put you on J9o basically.

    What range do you give him? I think a lot of his range calls flop and turn and folds to most river bets of PSB+. For example 65s probably in his range as well as 3 combos of 99. 76s might peel the flop, so that's likely his strongest holding other than KK.

    I’m not balanced here. I think we can pot 87 on River. And OB 89o and sometimes mix OBs with 9To etc.

    In theory I think POT should get folds from QQ because we have little bluffs. But in practice it doesn’t.
    I think it depends on V’s profile type more than my splits maybe?

    I think his range has a lot of hands similar to mine + Ax with BDFD and BDSD and over pairs.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,191 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 26
    If we can agree he can only call w set of kings facing very large sizing, why not take two sizings, and pole with the merge like my hand...

    And then use a merge sizing (80% pot maybe) with our good hands?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    I have offsuit hands on BU too for what it’s worth.

    I have a mixed frequency of raising with all those hands you pointed out on flop.

    I think top two+ can shove fairly easily without too much concern TBH. His top end range will feel a need to raise Turn at high frequency.

    Villain is a volatile profile professional.

    @Austin

    Ya 400bb deep will have a lot more off suite connectors as well. I do think the board favors your range more and you have a ton of value hands.

    Only issue I have, and its not a big issue, is the sizing. If you say 87o is for value here i would look to be called. You have like 80% value and 20% bluffs. So why size 3x when you want your range to be called by 99-QQ type hands? I have a hard time imaging getting called by QQ here. He would have to put you on J9o basically.

    What range do you give him? I think a lot of his range calls flop and turn and folds to most river bets of PSB+. For example 65s probably in his range as well as 3 combos of 99. 76s might peel the flop, so that's likely his strongest holding other than KK.

    I’m not balanced here. I think we can pot 87 on River. And OB 89o and sometimes mix OBs with 9To etc.

    In theory I think POT should get folds from QQ because we have little bluffs. But in practice it doesn’t.
    I think it depends on V’s profile type more than my splits maybe?

    I think his range has a lot of hands similar to mine + Ax with BDFD and BDSD and over pairs.

    More likely to call 99 and TT due to blockers and fold QQ and JJ correct?

    How far down do your off suite hands go? 65o? 97o? We can put together all the combos and figure out whats best.

    It's just so unlikely you take a hand like you have and turn it into a bluff denying yourself showdown value. Still beat some 65s hands and J9s hands in Vs range.

    Would help to know the exact suites for proper range assessment.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,191 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 26
    Yeah agree if I introduce an overbet then he will consider his blocks. So at 1.5x pot I think 99-JJ he may decide to call. Maybe T8s sometimes calls too.

    With a pot sizing, population calls with all overpairs because they are overpairs.

    I had no diamond in my hand. Flop was rainbow with the 8d. and Turn was 6d.

    I have 75o+ given depth, position, and gangsta.
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 430 ✭✭✭
    edited April 26
    To me the turn is the interesting street... Here after calling your cr, he check calls a pot sized bet. ..You both have wide ranges here.. Your flop raise is over pair, draws (including gut shots), top pair, and air... While 2pr and sets want to get money in they also don't want folds so fairly likely to just call flop and then raise or over bet turn or other similar action that can leverage to get all in on river.
    His call on the turn takes air that floated out of his range. So, sets, draws, TPTK, 2pr and over pair.. If he made the straight he would check raise. ..
    On the river only KK or maybe K8s improve...with the prior action he protection bets 2pr, sets depends how confident he is you will bet river if he checks... Again more likely he makes a bet to induce or over bets. So that leaves mostly over pairs..
    Your over bet is a pain for him. He is either way ahead or way behind, and you are capable of making this bluff. I think everything below QQ folds unless he is frustrated with you from earlier hands. Otherwise as you described him as volatile.. AA and QQ talk themselves into calling 65% of time. .. Tighter players make a grumbling fold
    My guess as played he has QQ or JJ
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,422 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If we can agree he can only call w set of kings facing very large sizing, why not take two sizings, and pole with the merge like my hand...

    And then use a merge sizing (80% pot maybe) with our good hands?

    As a technicality, I don't think you can count your hand in the merge. It beats nothing and is not thin value bet after the turn call. Which means, wherever you categorize it, it will fall into your polarized sizing on the end.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,191 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 26
    persuadeo wrote: »
    If we can agree he can only call w set of kings facing very large sizing, why not take two sizings, and pole with the merge like my hand...

    And then use a merge sizing (80% pot maybe) with our good hands?

    As a technicality, I don't think you can count your hand in the merge. It beats nothing and is not thin value bet after the turn call. Which means, wherever you categorize it, it will fall into your polarized sizing on the end.

    Agree as the technical term. I bet Turn as a bluff and to set up another bluff.

    The merge would I guess be 87 but I think that’s nutted. So maybe there is no merge.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,191 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 26
    And if there is no merge... then should we just blast it seems.

    Not touting my own horn because I could have easily fell into this.
    But on Turn I decided If I bet I’m poling now and he’s capped if he just calls. Which makes top two just the bottom of my value pole but still super nutted.

    So I was never choosing a normal size unless it was to exploit if I hit w/ my hand.

    @persuadeo
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,191 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 26
    So his hand was A9dd FWIW

    (He said Turn sizing made him not CR Turn)

    So you know I was value jamming the rivs LOL.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,422 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The turn gives you a clear range advantage and his action severely caps him. The card should cause him to polarize with his best hands and best reverse floats such as diamonds. The fact that you can't have top set might disincline a shove vs a very large bet, but I don't think it matters much, as the bet is not outside the bounds of reasonableness. You also know exactly what you are targeting, which will call down all those 1.5x bets far too often. Seems like you did the right thing for sure.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,191 ✭✭✭✭
    In other words..
    Once Turn becomes a bet... we should have no River checks because we in the pole with range advantage regardless of our hand.

    Thoughts on this guys?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I really like villains float with :Ad :9D: blockers and Bd draws. I saw this exact type of hand when captain Ki on LATB did a strategy video of a 5/10 hand.

    I wish you didn't share the results yet, but we can still discuss further.

    I'm thinking back to the flop sizing. Where turn and river are poled the flop raise is not being less than 3x.

    Merged semi weak flop raise
    Poled turn
    Poled river.
  • The MuleThe Mule Red Chipper Posts: 770 ✭✭✭
    Interesting discussion though is that I don’t have any logical bluffs so in theory I should size down.

    Are you not raising JT and/or J9 on the flop, at some frequency ?

    If you are bluff raising 98o on the flop, are you also raising 97 (s, and maybe o ?) and T8 (ditto) ?

    Feels like you potentially have a lot of bluffs here, most with similar blocking effects.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,191 ✭✭✭✭
    The Mule wrote: »
    Interesting discussion though is that I don’t have any logical bluffs so in theory I should size down.

    Are you not raising JT and/or J9 on the flop, at some frequency ?

    If you are bluff raising 98o on the flop, are you also raising 97 (s, and maybe o ?) and T8 (ditto) ?

    Feels like you potentially have a lot of bluffs here, most with similar blocking effects.

    “perceived” bluffs is the better way to put it.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,485 ✭✭✭✭
    In other words..
    Once Turn becomes a bet... we should have no River checks because we in the pole with range advantage regardless of our hand.

    So you mean that betting turns negates our SDV?

    I'm ok board with flop raise and turn bet (we pick up OESD), but I don't really understand why we wouldn't have SDV. Aka would villain be really that sticky with overpairs and better TP on flop c-r and turn pot bet ?
  • The MuleThe Mule Red Chipper Posts: 770 ✭✭✭
    The Mule wrote: »
    Interesting discussion though is that I don’t have any logical bluffs so in theory I should size down.

    Are you not raising JT and/or J9 on the flop, at some frequency ?

    If you are bluff raising 98o on the flop, are you also raising 97 (s, and maybe o ?) and T8 (ditto) ?

    Feels like you potentially have a lot of bluffs here, most with similar blocking effects.

    “perceived” bluffs is the better way to put it.

    Interesting. What do you base the assumption your opponent is misperceiving your range on ?
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,202 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yosh wrote: »
    As a pure exploit vs a player who will massively overfold the river, possibly - but theoretically a strategy of poling the turn and never checking back the river runs into problems. If you arrive to the river with a balanced nuts to air ratio and plan to bet all of it, the villain can exploit you heavily by simply folding the weaker part of his range (the capped calling part) to the turn bet. In other words, you having a bet / give-up line is what incentivizes him to call the turn with a bluff catcher in the first place.

    Makes sense in theory. In practice, I wonder how many times villain can have seen this situation historically to even know he's in it. Something hard to tell from a single hand history.

    Going back a street, I'm trying to imagine a hand we wouldn't barrel on the turn card. It seems to have boiled down to a mandatory turn bet after the flop c/r, and overbet shove vs. check on the river are the only 2 options. (Glad to see consideration given to pool response with overpairs to 1.5x pot bet, lol). I can see villain slowplaying a set of 3s more so than T9 but that seems like fringe stuff because the meat and potatoes is getting pairs to fold. "Volatile" is what has me hesitating. Volatile players understand volatile play, so are we hoping he's thinking mathematically or reacting emotionally?

  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,191 ✭✭✭✭
    The Mule wrote: »
    The Mule wrote: »
    Interesting discussion though is that I don’t have any logical bluffs so in theory I should size down.

    Are you not raising JT and/or J9 on the flop, at some frequency ?

    If you are bluff raising 98o on the flop, are you also raising 97 (s, and maybe o ?) and T8 (ditto) ?

    Feels like you potentially have a lot of bluffs here, most with similar blocking effects.

    “perceived” bluffs is the better way to put it.

    Interesting. What do you base the assumption your opponent is misperceiving your range on ?

    People don’t think players bluff with pairs in their hand.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,329 ✭✭✭✭
    I feel like 98o CC pre might be small mistake if other player is pro with decent skill level unless there is weak player in the blinds or you have very strong idea on how to exploit the "pro".

    You seem to assume the pro will always 3B flop with sets? I think he will reach turn with some combos of sets, and then just XC your big turn bet as the obvious straight gets there. I also think we have to consider some fraction of T9 might slowplay the turn as well. While I have never played against you I have the perception(could be very wrong?) that you use lots of big bets, overbets, and aren't afraid to bluff. If the "pro" in this hand has similar perception of you he might be even more inclined to slow more combos of sets/T9?

    Pretending this HH is HU I put it into PIO and as suspected it mixes flop raises, and turn bet about 50/50 with 89. It checks back the river 95% of the time with 89o.

    As the OOP player PIO calls the river jam with some sets/T9s/KK/87s, and about 25% of its TT/99, while folding all JJ/QQ/AA. Given your ~3x river over-bet OOP only has to defend about 25% of his range.

  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,329 ✭✭✭✭
    In other words..
    Once Turn becomes a bet... we should have no River checks because we in the pole with range advantage regardless of our hand.

    I don't understand this - care to elaborate?
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