Appropriate sample size to determine if you are good?

FishyFishy20FishyFishy20 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
How many hours of live $1/3 NLHE is enough to draw conclusions about one's skill (or lack thereof)? I estimate 10000 hands (~300 hours) may be good. It'll probably take me a while to reach mark.
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Comments

  • FishyFishy20FishyFishy20 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
    Haha well I guess I might get there before I die...
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think 500 hours will determine if your a winning player.

    1000 hours just to be safe

    2080 hours is 40 hours a week and should be close to your hourly rate.

    Each year is different. I seen players go from 1bb break even player to 20bb\hour for 300 hours.

    Results don't always indicate your a good player though. Could just be playing with a bunch of drunks giving away their money who never played the game before.

    For your question you can technically never play the game and just be a student of the game or a coach and say your good at it.
  • FishyFishy20FishyFishy20 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
    I play recreationally so I doubt I'll be hitting significant hours like that anytime soon. I am competitive though so I am now "keeping score" by tracking my sessions.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I play recreationally so I doubt I'll be hitting significant hours like that anytime soon. I am competitive though so I am now "keeping score" by tracking my sessions.

    Just do the math. If you play 10hrs a week thats only 1 year for 500 hours.
  • FishyFishy20FishyFishy20 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
    I work 80 hrs a week at my job. I think 10hrs a month is more realistic.
  • Zero CoolZero Cool Red Chipper Posts: 272 ✭✭✭
    I would say that live you should have a decent idea of where you're at after 100 hrs. 500 is a better sample but by the time you reach it, if you're studying, you game should be much different and improved from where you started.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,296 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Is beating 1/3 and being a good player synonymous?
  • FishyFishy20FishyFishy20 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
    Touche persuadeo. Let me rephrase my question: What would be an appropriate sample size to determine if I am a consistent winner at my current stakes?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,385 -
    edited April 2018
    Touche persuadeo. Let me rephrase my question: What would be an appropriate sample size to determine if I am a consistent winner at my current stakes?

    Because variance occurs about the mean, the number of hours required depends on how much you're beating the game for. In other words it takes longer to determine if a small winner is a consistent winner than someone who is destroying a given limit.

    That said, a competent coach could likely determine if you're beating a given limit by sweating you for as little as 4-5 hours, always assuming that the way you play when being observed is how you always play.

    To come at it from another angle, I don't know of any consistent live low-limit winners who have losing/flat streaks longer than about 400 hours.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I work 80 hrs a week at my job. I think 10hrs a month is more realistic.

    What do you do @Christopher Stack ?
  • OdB_BlackBaronOdB_BlackBaron Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    edited April 2018
    Something that always terrifies me is a chart Cole South posted of a 300k break-even stretch during a year when he was one poker's biggest cash winners online.

    This is something too often overlooked.
  • FishyFishy20FishyFishy20 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Something that always terrifies me is a chart Cole South posted of a 300k break-even stretch during a year when he was one poker's biggest cash winners online.

    This is why some people never wanna move past 2\5 (500nl) because of small edges. If he had a 300k break even stretch so did his opponents most likely or maybe slight losers due to rake.

    300k with rake paid = a lot of cash bonuses though.

    Bum hunters for the win
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @Austin :

    $5/10 is a game of huge edges, people with money are still terrible at math. $2/5 live is 85% bums. $1/3 is 100% bum on bum violence.

    You sir, seem very rude to your customers.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    Then just enjoy the game and try to improve. If your working 80 hours as a physician the hourly $ shouldn't really matter (just my opinion). Look at it as a fun game that you can use to fund some other fun stuff too (beer, groceries, entertainment), or if you are a slightly losing player, hey, play to play, it's fun right!


    I get it if you are a competitive person and you wanna know how you "stack up", but if you can only play 10 hours a month.... that's like 2-3 times a month right? Reminds me of something, my brother recently got married in Hilton Head, and his father in law is a very good golfer (as is my brother). I shoot mid 90's on a good day, between 95-110 normally. He sent me a map of the course so I could being to "plan my strategy". I said "sir, my general strategy will be enjoying the sunny weather involve while attempting to hitting it towards the flag and generally not into the water. Oh, and beers. Beers on ice."
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    $1/3 is 100% bum on bum violence.
    Throw me into the mix coach, I'm ready for the pain.
  • FishyFishy20FishyFishy20 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
    Jfarrow- appreciate the comment! Unfortunately, I am not hard wired to just "have fun" with my hobbies. I get interested in something and have to learn everything about it making it an obsession/passion. Also I am way too competitive. The actual dollar amounts are fairly insignificant to me financially (not going to gamble with anything I can't afford to lose) but it is the way we keep score in poker. I hate losing. I always want to be the best at everything I do.

    I started playing again in March. My wife "allowed" me to play with $500 while I was on vacation. I have logged probably 40hrs since March most of which when I was on vacation. I cashed in 7/20 MTT and played $1/3. Sitting at ~$1800. I don't want to draw too many conclusions given the small sample size and variance. I would eventually like to get good enough at these stakes so that I can try $2/5 and play some bigger MTT buy ins.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,449 ✭✭✭✭
    Jfarrow- appreciate the comment! Unfortunately, I am not hard wired to just "have fun" with my hobbies. I get interested in something and have to learn everything about it making it an obsession/passion. Also I am way too competitive. The actual dollar amounts are fairly insignificant to me financially (not going to gamble with anything I can't afford to lose) but it is the way we keep score in poker. I hate losing. I always want to be the best at everything I do.

    Like PBF said this is a good mindset for learning the game. Just keep an eye on the "hate losing" part. I am a winner in the games I play(long term), but still lose money in at least 40% of my sessions. So you have find ways to be ok with having lots of losing sessions.
  • FishyFishy20FishyFishy20 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
    Kenaces- I agree 100%. I am very hard on myself. It can be very detrimental in all areas of my life. I certainly have a long way to go. The great irony in all this is that I quite literally don't get flustered in life/death situations at work. I don't think my heart rate gets above 60 in medical emergencies. I don't get phased ever. But if I make a poor play on the poker table I'm liable to spew off a buy in or two.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    It just is a thing of experience, just like in the medical community. I'm sure the first time a patient dies on a surgeons table, he is crushed and cannot sleep. "what did I do wrong? Did I make a mistake? Should I have done X?" A seasoned surgeon probably goes back and objectively examines a surgery gone bad to see if there were mistakes made, but no longer blames himself for a patients death (I don't think you can), and even if he did potentially make a mistake that might have cost someone their life, we are only human. We do the best we can with the training and information we have present, and are always striving for improvement. But if you beat yourself up relentlessly for every mistake you make, you'll just be a head case and it will impede your progress.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    It would be nice if it was your real name.

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