Sick Value Bets

N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
edited April 2018 in General Concepts
I've been trying to add thin value bets on the river to my game.

I remember 2 hands within the last 7 days that I do make thin value bet on the river that I could be proud of.

Is there a way to expand our poker brain to recognize these spots more often?

Also, if I do this more often, will I be seeing more raises from my Villains? And how to counter that if they do?
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Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you read hands well, then thin value bets become easy.

    Watch some PIO videos with small sizing and you will be surprised how much of your range bets the river.

    If your making smaller bets, then you can bet more hands for thin value. Not every thing has to be 50% pot or more.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,312 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2018
    As Austin says, smaller is your bet and wider can your range be.

    But beware: some - the aggro players - will attack smaller bet sizing as they see it as weak. So don't forget to take your Villain's profile and probable reaction in account when expanding your betting range and downsizing your bet sizing.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    On addition: Throw in a small value bet on a nutted hand every once in a while. That should force aggressive opponents back into bluff-catching mode rather than bluff-raising mode.

    I'm of the opinion that it is almost never good to show your cards. This might be a rare exception. When you do make a thin value bet with a monster, if there is a fold, it might wise to show your cards here.

    Here's the flip side: if/when you DO have to show your cards with a monster hand, you'll likely get away a couple of times with thin-bet bluffs. That's good! But, opponents are going to look to trap you and raise with their better hands. Just be wary the first time that an opponent does that. At that point, you might need to veer away from thin value-bets for a while. None of this is bad, of course. Just good to think ahead for when you implement thin values into your play the impact that it will have on future hands and to have your ready-made adjustment and exploit available.
  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 580 ✭✭✭
    A question: because you did not get value in a particular hand(s), does that mean that value was missed?
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    I'm of the opinion that it is almost never good to show your cards. Except in spots where it gives your opponents huge amounts of information.

    I factor that opponents are going to adapt and react to my style of play. I also grant that enough are good enough to come up with an effective counter-strategy. I don't presume that because something is working well it will continue to be perfectly effective all the time.

    I'm anticipating opponents' reactions, trying to set in their minds falsely what I am doing, and then having the exploit for their responses in place before they even counter.

    If OP is playing shorter sessions or against opponents who are playing shorter sessions or are entirely incapable of formulating any counter-strategy, then, yeah -- showing cards here would be terrible.

    If OP is playing in the vast majority of games -- which have enough decent enough players that you cannot simply be a robot and win -- then I think that there is merit to my argument.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Donk bet small with Monsters.

    Lets say UTG raises to $30 (larger than normal $20) so you think he has JJ+

    MP calls 30
    Hero 55 calls $25 more in BB


    Flop ($92) 592
    *where cbet might be $60 usually a donk bet changes things.
    Hero donk bets $25
    Utg raises to $120

    GG easy to get stacks in now. Can click it back to $240 or check raise turn.

    Donking small is monsters is one of my favorite lines when playeds are face up with over pairs. Check raise will raise red flag. Donk and call raise keeps your hand under repped and makes it easy for them to over play an over pair.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Donk bet small with Monsters.

    You have a tolerance for taking openly -EV plays PRAYING to make it back when someone has an exact hand to spew against you AND is willing to take a dumber line than you, not realizing that taking a standard line is way more +EV in the first place.

    If you think villain has KK, you're saying bet/3bet looks weaker than c/r flop bet turn? Fancy play syndrome: very acute.

    What hands are you Check raising on 952 rainbow vs an obvious over pair? Pretend you have a tag image. Looks more like a set.

    Now compare that to a donk bet small and call a raise. Now you can have some T9s or A9 type hands that fits into your donk range right?

    If the player pool tendencies are to donk TPwk or some random draw why not use that with Monsters to induce? You might disagree but it works pretty well.

    Not sure how you call it dumb if it makes money and how it can be -EV when your putting money in the pot with the best hand.

    Remember this is exploiting lower stake players not some pio solver balancing your check raise range. You can throw. A lot of balance out the window.

    Now vs a wider range where we don't know what V has then i agree.
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 455 ✭✭✭
    For me the decision to donk bet a monster or cr is very affected by stack size. The goal being to get all the chips in the middle by showdown. If effective stacks are <150bb then cr gets the money in easily. But when stacks get very deep it takes more creativity. In the Matt Berkey Playbook on Instapoker he illustrates this difference in a number of hands.
    A cr is a very strong move and most players get very cautious even if they called. Often folding over pairs even to a turn bet so we miss value. But with the smaller stacks turn can go check/check and the over pair will still be enticed to make a crying call on the river.
    With deeper stacks the over pair may call some small or reasonable bets but still good chance they fold. In both cases we miss value as our goal is to get all in.
    If we don't bet it tends to look weaker and the IP over pair raises we call. Lots of weaker hands now in our range. Check turn to induce a mistake by the IP player of betting.... Even if they check behind they are far more inclined to call a big river bet than if we had cr the flop
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    What hands are you Check raising on 952 rainbow vs an obvious over pair? Pretend you have a tag image. Looks more like a set.

    So in your world you can see your opponent's overpairs, they know when you have a set every time you check-raise, and you have a surefire winning betting system, but you still play at the lowest possible stakes of poker? Might as well tell me you're a Leprechaun and get it over with.

    You never seen anyone with a bet sizing tell before? Or do you not pay attention and think 1\3 cbet solved every thing in poker? How about 1\3 donk bets on boards that favors callers range.

    You always try and put words in peoples mouths. Say its dumb or worse thing you ever saw, but have yet to provide clear example that refutes what im talking about. How can you disagree with something that exploits a lower stake player pool tendecy for maximum value.

    Lets say CO raises and you saw him in the past limp JJ and AK. There are players like this we've all seen them. 4 limpers CO raises to $25, hero calls BB and all 4 limpeds call.
    Flop ($150) 984r
    Hero donk bets $30 (1\5th) pot with pocket 99.
    2 of the limpers call.

    What do you think CO will do with QQ+ here? $240 in the pot. Maybe he makes it $120? Where he might cbet 75 if we had checked.

    How can you argue against getting more money in the pot with the nuts? Simply because its an exploit and not gto? Gtfo
  • N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
    edited April 2018
    I've small cbet with the nuts OOP, the first time, like 5 other people called.

    Another time, someone reraised me big, which made me happy because I was sitting with the nuts.

    I think small donk OOP with the nuts is worth a try too in live low stake games.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,296 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Austin, he's pointing out the fundamentals of how the game works. It doesn't matter that some players will fall for your inducement, or even that they often fall for it - he's constantly underscoring lines that have the highest potential EV and work with the basic paradigms of NL , which means they will perform in any situation and any stake.

    It's not a contradiction that your line has made you money but that deviating first, acting fundamentally second is still one of the primary bugaboos of learning players.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ok so play GTO against thinking players and exploitable vs non-thinking players.

    Seems like a robotic strategy of I'm going to check raise sets 100% of the time because i don't want to pay attention to the players and optimize my profit. I just know this line makes money so I'm going to keep check raising.

    Lets say you are up against a gto player. Pot $100 four ways to the flop.
    952r
    Three checks
    Pfr bets $25
    Sb hero check raises to $90
    Pfr folds

    You would need a pretty damn good check raise frequency with bluffs like QTs-87s to balance against the right player.

    At low stakes you turn your hand face up against regs and haven't built a pot and unlikely to get paid off.

    We can agree to disagree on playing gto vs exploitable at low stakes and which makes the most money.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    PhDs literally do whole math proofs on gambling strategies being losing and you still think they were winning. You demonstrate so much magical thinking that you should be a poet, not a poker player.

    I coach poetry too. I'm at the nosebleed stakes.

    Prove it. Because you take fundamental line doesn't mean its optimal. Each situation is different. You said you have mentors that play 10\20+ and now all of a sudden you play above your mentors in the nose bleeds? I give you credit as a knowledgeable player, more so than most, but i can also see your full of shit in some of your other post.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I said I'm a nosebleed stakes poet, you illiterate pug.

    Your prices for coaching poetry are nosebleed prices?

    Why the fuck do I care about your poetry? That's not what were talking about you fuck. Bravo you make money ripping students off in poetry. Stick to that. You wanna discuss poetry with someone who cares, open an off topic thread. You will be take 1st out of 1. How about you share with us a poem of cbetting 1\3 with your entire range and being a full proof strategy that no one ever thought of before. Prodigy at like age 40 LOL. Do you believe the shit you say?

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