To PIO users, how to analyze my hand?

N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
edited April 30 in Live Poker Hands
I haven't bought PIO yet. But, I'd like to analyze a hand that I played last night.

I'm seriously thinking about buying PIO to improve my poker skills.

If there's one PIO user and kind enough to do the PIO analysis for me that'd be great.

So the hand is from 1/3 $500 max bet

Hero's stack $500
V (SB) stack $185
BB's stack $400


Folds to hero who opens OTB to $12 with :Ks :Qh

V in the SB calls
BB calls

3 way to the flop:
:Kh :Qc :2h ($36)

V checks, BB checks, Hero bets: $30

V calls, BB folds.

Heads up to the turn:
:9h ($96)

V donks all in for $143

What does PIO say about my next move?
Is PIO useful for analyzing hands like these?

Thank you very much

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    No info on villain? You have to assign a range to villain.

    Will he float with :AH: :JC: ?

    For the most part i see players with :5H: :6H: make this play afraid of getting sucked out on. Also will villain call hands like Q9 pre?

    2 combos of Q9s. Idk if player pool shoves KxJh on turn. Pretty ballsy.

    I think its an exploitable fold. Your heart is live but probably 7 outs + 6 outs to board so your 27% to win vs a small flush.

    143 \ 239 (1.67 : 1) . have to be good here 38%.

    It's not a snap fold but have a hard time seeing anything worse than

    Q9s, JTo, small flush as a shove here.
  • N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
    edited April 30
    Austin wrote: »
    No info on villain? You have to assign a range to villain.

    Thanks Austin. I really had to info on V. He just sat down with no prior history. Nor had I seen him before. I will definitely post spoiler result later.

    The reason why I posted this was to see if my decision matched PIO or not.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,366 ✭✭✭✭
    PIO doesn't give solutions for multiway pots
  • N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
    edited April 30
    kenaces wrote: »
    PIO doesn't give solutions for multiway pots

    Could we assume this was a heads up pot?

    And I think 20% - 25% calling range from V in the small blind is a good guess (even though in live games probably more loose).

    20-25% calling range (don't include top 3 hands AA, KK, QQ). Call with JJ, AK, AQ
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    N A wrote: »
    kenaces wrote: »
    PIO doesn't give solutions for multiway pots

    Could we assume this was a heads up pot?

    And I think 20% - 25% calling range from V in the small blind is a good guess (even though in live games probably more loose).

    20-25% calling range (don't include top 3 hands AA, KK, QQ). Call with JJ, AK, AQ

    Sounds like we both need Pio.
  • N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    N A wrote: »
    kenaces wrote: »
    PIO doesn't give solutions for multiway pots

    Could we assume this was a heads up pot?

    And I think 20% - 25% calling range from V in the small blind is a good guess (even though in live games probably more loose).

    20-25% calling range (don't include top 3 hands AA, KK, QQ). Call with JJ, AK, AQ

    Sounds like we both need Pio.

    I have money to buy PIO now since I've been crushing my 1/3 game. LOL
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    N A wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    N A wrote: »
    kenaces wrote: »
    PIO doesn't give solutions for multiway pots

    Could we assume this was a heads up pot?

    And I think 20% - 25% calling range from V in the small blind is a good guess (even though in live games probably more loose).

    20-25% calling range (don't include top 3 hands AA, KK, QQ). Call with JJ, AK, AQ

    Sounds like we both need Pio.

    I have money to buy PIO now since I've been crushing my 1/3 game. LOL

    Let us know the results. I have a feeling its like call 25% of the time and fold 75%
  • N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
    edited April 30
    @Austin
    I squirmed in my seat and tanked for about 1 full minute before I decided to call.

    River was :2d

    V tabled his hand :Ah :Kc

    The dealer said "2 pair...Kings and deuces..."

    I took another 2 seconds to make sure my hand was good to show. I took down the pot
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you need PIO to analyze this spot, it's going to be a long, long row ahead.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,366 ✭✭✭✭
    I agree with @persuadeo.

    I am all for using solvers to understand the game at a baseline level but you can't "overfit" the sims to spots where it doesn't really apply. In this case most GTO approximations don't have a CC range in the SBvBTN, it being a 3 way flop matters, and in solver land you won't see much if any XC-lead for 1.5x pot lines.

    I suggest you make your best guess at villains range, check your equity vs that range, and compare that to the pot odds.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    :Kh :QC: :4H: :9H:

    I'll ignore the preflop range for now and focus on postflop turn decision and what range i think villain will shove with that gets to the turn.

    azz6mledifk0.png
    ixb5ofou493c.png


    Surprised this range came out to 50\50. I did the card removal based on suites and blockers showed. Gave villain a slightly agressive range that shoves a lot of QxJh or KxJh hand. Also 2 combos each or 44 and 99.

    Being 50\50 with this range you gotta call. Now if he villain doesn't shove KxJh or QxJh then your 44%, which is still a call. I guess I'm just a nit....

    If you remove the AhQx, AhJx, AhTx from villains range you drop to 32%. Which means villain is only shoving small flushes, gave him 3 ace high flushes, 44, K9s, Q9s, JTo, J10s, and AhKx.

    Against an average passive rec i guess its a fold.

    Against a lag or a thinking player capable of making moves its a call.

    Good post.

  • N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
    edited May 1
    Ok, so I did this on flop zilla.

    1. I enter V's calling range preflop:

    99-22,AKo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s-86s (24.3%)

    2. Then I enter my whole cards and give the board

    3. On the turn, V's range is:
    99,22,AKo,KQo-K9o,Q9o,JTo,AKs,KQs-K8s,Q9s,JTs,AhJh,AhTh,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,AhQd,AhQs,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs,Jh8h,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,Th8h,Ah9c,Ah9d,Ah9s,Ah8c,Ah8d,Ah8s,8h7h,8h6h

    11.6%

    On the turn, my equity vs V's hand is 63%
    My hand is best 57%

    Is this how to study using flopzilla?

    Thanks
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,366 ✭✭✭✭
    N A wrote: »
    Ok, so I did this on flop zilla.

    1. I enter V's calling range preflop:

    99-22,AKo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s-86s (24.3%)

    2. Then I enter my whole cards and give the board

    3. On the turn, V's range is:
    99,22,AKo,KQo-K9o,Q9o,JTo,AKs,KQs-K8s,Q9s,JTs,AhJh,AhTh,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,AhQd,AhQs,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs,Jh8h,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,Th8h,Ah9c,Ah9d,Ah9s,Ah8c,Ah8d,Ah8s,8h7h,8h6h

    11.6%

    On the turn, my equity vs V's hand is 63%
    My hand is best 57%

    Is this how to study using flopzilla?

    Thanks

    good start but you have to add a little IMO

    - does villain really flat AK/AQ/99/KQs... 100% of the time? - you can weight things in flopzilla
    - I think he might also XR some of his NFDs/99/KQ/K9/JT.... you can filter these in flopzilla
    - now you have decide which parts of his XC range are likely to lead turn with that big bet sizing?
    - now have a look at your equity and compare it to the pot odds

    I know this is a lot of guess work but playing around will this stuff and seeing what changes with given assumption will help your game.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Range seems a little wide for villain to call Axo and then float the flop oop hoping for runner runner flush. Would take a lot of A9-A2o out of his range. Especially when you made a large cbet.
  • N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Range seems a little wide for villain to call Axo and then float the flop oop hoping for runner runner flush. Would take a lot of A9-A2o out of his range. Especially when you made a large cbet.

    But there's no Axo in his range on the turn. If you see number 3, all of his Ax is Ah.

    So on the turn, he either already had a flush, or drawing with Ah.

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    N A wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    Range seems a little wide for villain to call Axo and then float the flop oop hoping for runner runner flush. Would take a lot of A9-A2o out of his range. Especially when you made a large cbet.

    But there's no Axo in his range on the turn. If you see number 3, all of his Ax is Ah.

    So on the turn, he either already had a flush, or drawing with Ah.

    Range doesn't seem right.

    3) you think villain has 22 in his range? You probably meant 44 but that changes your equity quite a bit.

    I don't think villain calls preflop and then large cbet with these hands
    Ah9c,Ah9d,Ah9s,Ah8c,Ah8d,Ah8s
    Which is why i said Ax refering to below A10. Q9o and K9o.... I don't think they fit into a calling range vs a raise for most players. I would tighten up just a bit to like QTo and KTo, Q9s, K9s etc. Maybe wider like k2s+, Q5s+ but off suite is usually broadways.

  • N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
    edited May 2
    Austin wrote: »
    Range doesn't seem right.

    3) you think villain has 22 in his range? You probably meant 44 but that changes your equity quite a bit.

    Yes, I think 22 will call preflop and make a set on the flop, therefore it will continue to the turn. Unless you think he would checkraises with a set of 2s on the flop. The board is too drawy for bottom set.
    Austin wrote: »
    I don't think villain calls preflop and then large cbet with these hands
    Ah9c,Ah9d,Ah9s,Ah8c,Ah8d,Ah8s
    Which is why i said Ax refering to below A10. Q9o and K9o.... I don't think they fit into a calling range vs a raise for most players. I would tighten up just a bit to like QTo and KTo, Q9s, K9s etc. Maybe wider like k2s+, Q5s+ but off suite is usually broadways.

    Ok, I see what you're saying.

    How about these range:

    99,AKo-AQo,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo,AKs-AQs,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q9s,JTs,AhJh,AhTh,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs,Jh8h,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,Th8h,8h7h,8h6h

    zxlr2fb0mc7y.jpg
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Sorry i thought it was kq4 not kq2... I messed up on my post above.

    For the QJo QTo KJo type hands i don't think V will shove those without a heart on the turn. I see 6 combos listed when it should be like 2 combos of each. Same thing for A10-AK. You can throw 22 in the range, i misread the flop.

    If he is calling Q9o and K9o preflop does he not call hands like 85s? Might throw in a few random flushes as well. You see on my snap shot above for hands like 99 and 44 i used 2 combos instead of 3 because this helps balance the times he check raises 22 on the flop or folds 99 on the flop.

    When its all said in done the spot is marginal but with the odds your getting despite being an overbet its a call.

    What sizing do you fold to on the turn?

    Even facing a 3x or 4x pot shove you have to be 42-44% of the time. Which means vs some recs that make this play with J10o and small flushes only and never a pair + fd your hand becomes a fold. Once you include enough pair + fd in their range it becomes a call.

    I've made worse folds and great folds basically same spot. All depends on what you think about the player. Against a 3x pot shove i would puke 300 into $96. I might be a variance nit and fold. Which makes me wanna do this a few times this summer. I don't think many players are capable of folding and they don't expect anyone to shove the nuts.

    I used the strategy on ACR a little bit in HU pots with my cbets. KQ2 same flop. Pot is $1.50 bet $4 with 22. Puts hands like AQ and KJ in a tough spot.
  • N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
    I actually just watched a pro video here about analyzing a hand using PIO. It's really easy to be honest. And we shouldn't be posting hand questions/strategies anymore once we get our hands on PIO.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    N A wrote: »
    I actually just watched a pro video here about analyzing a hand using PIO. It's really easy to be honest. And we shouldn't be posting hand questions/strategies anymore once we get our hands on PIO.

    You still have to estimate ranges correctly, input correct bet sizing, etc. This is where the forum will help.
  • Joseph FJoseph F Red Chipper Posts: 701 ✭✭✭
    N A wrote: »
    I actually just watched a pro video here about analyzing a hand using PIO. It's really easy to be honest. And we shouldn't be posting hand questions/strategies anymore once we get our hands on PIO.

    CardrunnersEV+GTOPlus does everything PIO does and more.

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