Should top 2 pair call this donk bet?

SammwiggSammwigg Red Chipper Posts: 119 ✭✭
1/3 NL [POPR]

UTG ($1,400) $6 Straddle
UTG+1 ($700) C$6
UTG+2 folds
MP ($230) C$6
MP+1 Folds
LoJack (hero) ($470) [As] [Kc] bets $30
Everyone folds around to the MP who Calls for $24 more

($76) [Ac] [4c] [Kh]

MP R$60

What should our hero do? Call, fold or re-raise?

Best Answers

Answers

  • Joseph BonoJoseph Bono Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    Please don't fold. You have the best hand, you should just figure out how to extract the most value.

    In my local meta, donk leads on the flop are usually indicative of a top pair hand or a draw that is trying to set a price. Maybe your meta is different, but it probably isn't. Most players that limp and hit a big hand want to "trap" the preflop raiser by checking and letting them bet. That is not what this guy is doing. He probably has a medium strength hand like Ace-rag or a King that he wants "see where he is at" or "charge the draws" with (but that would actually work much better as a bluff catcher).

    Even if he had a big hand, you actually beat most of his range. Only extreme outliers play AA and KK like this, so you can safely eliminate them from his preflop range (and even if you do, those are only 2 combinations of hands), but even if you don't he has at most 5 hand combos that beat you (AA, KK, and three combos of 44), at most 2 combos that tie you (the other two AKs), and up to 12 combos that lose to you (6 combos of A4 and 6 combos of K4). You want to play for stacks with this guy.

    The only question is how to get your whole stack in effectively - should you raise or should you call. I lean towards a call here, and would definitely just call here if it was a rainbow flop. If he is leading into you to "find out where he is at" you don't want to make it super obvious the answer is "far behind." The reason you would consider raising here is if you think that it makes you look more bluffy (because you could be drawing) or if you are concerned about a scare card coming off on the turn and ruining your action. This is a fine time to take a look at the guy and see if there is a physical tell about how he feels. If he seems nervous or anxious I would lean more towards a call, if he seems confident and calm I lean more towards a raise. His history at the table should also help guide you - have you seen him make lots of calls and get to show down, or does he seem to fold a lot? What has his general table presentation been?
  • SammwiggSammwigg Red Chipper Posts: 119 ✭✭
    To add some depth to the hand, I started on this table with$500 about an hour before this hand. Been playing very tight protecting my stack that is considered moderately short for this group. My image should have been tight passive after multiple times folding the SB and BTN after multiple limpers and limping in from UTG a couple of times.
    On the first hand I saw MP play he lost his stack of $300 with Q4o vs Qjs on a Q75 flop. He bought back in for another$300 and doubled up on the very next hand when his 75s hit a straight. He was an active player at the table. I felt he plays with a wide range of hands, loose aggressive.

  • SammwiggSammwigg Red Chipper Posts: 119 ✭✭
    Hero Reraised to $180
  • SammwiggSammwigg Red Chipper Posts: 119 ✭✭
    edited May 2018
    Austin wrote: »

    You fold out all worse aces including AQ most of the time. Limper range mostly fd + gutter here i think. Worse case set of 4s. If he had A10s-AJ its a disaster to let him play perfectly

    I am struggling with the MP’s range here.

    A pre-flop $30 call, followed by a Donk bet of this size, looks stronger now then it did while I was in the hand.

    Not sure AQo would make this bet.

    44, Suited Aces and Suited Kings might bet this way . AA or KK are unlikely. Those hands would have most likely raised Pre-flop.

    What do you think the villlians range is here?

    The bet sizing on the Re-raise of $180 was designed to not give a FD the proper pot odds or implied odds to make a good call. If you were to raise here, do you think the raise is too large? If so, what do you think the proper bet sizing should be in this case and why?

  • tripletiretripletire Red Chipper Posts: 323 ✭✭✭
    edited May 2018
    Sammwigg wrote: »
    What do you think the villlians range is here?

    The bet sizing on the Re-raise of $180 was designed to not give a FD the proper pot odds or implied odds to make a good call. If you were to raise here, do you think the raise is too large? If so, what do you think the proper bet sizing should be in this case and why?

    Don't worry too much about what villain's range is here, it's not usually relevant when they have no construction in mind when they make their bets. We can wrap up the question much neater by simply saying "villain can have a lot of random stuff"

    @Joseph Bono is pretty good on his ranging assumptions for his pool, but be careful trying to always assign logic to a players action. It doesn't matter why they donked into you, all that matters is that we have vision over what players are capable of donking with.

    The donk out by this player, who's already shown that he's willing to go broke with any TP 50 BB deep, is one I'll never raise. The portion of his range that the average donker can be spazzing out with is worth so much EV that raising becomes a mistake, we need to keep that intact for him to blow up bluffing into us. Focusing in too hard on denying odds for a flush draw is narrow ranging and working too specifically on one portion of his range. Saying that the majority of his bluffing range is equity driven with FDs is assumptive because he's already proven to you that he's very unlikely to have a sound strategy by donking at all.

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