Is this Re-Raise sizing appropriate?

SammwiggSammwigg Red Chipper Posts: 119 ✭✭
1-3 NL [POPR]

UTG+1 ($500) R$13
BTN ($400) C$13
SB folds
BB (hero) ($450) [Qs] [Jh] C$13

($40) [Qh] [4h] [Js]

BB checks
UTG+1 B$35
BTN C$35
BB R$175

Is the BB CK Raise the right size bet? Too big, too small, just right? Why?

Best Answer

Answers

  • N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
    It's very big in my opinion. I'd raise to $80-$100 ish
  • colorbulbcolorbulb Philadelphia, PARed Chipper Posts: 17 ✭✭
    That feels like a pretty huge raise in general, but especially against UTG+1's opening range. Maybe something like $115 would be better, which would still give the heart draw a bad price to continue, while also allowing worse hands to call. If you make it $175 I think a lot of worse hands are going to fold out.
  • SammwiggSammwigg Red Chipper Posts: 119 ✭✭
    edited May 2018
    colorbulb wrote: »
    That feels like a pretty huge raise in general, but especially against UTG+1's opening range. Maybe something like $115 would be better, which would still give the heart draw a bad price to continue, while also allowing worse hands to call. If you make it $175 I think a lot of worse hands are going to fold out.

    The large size of this bet was my concern too. That is why I posted this question..

    The BTN calling the $13 pre-flop raise and then calling the $35 bet on the flop from late Position could very well have a FD.

    My, on the fly calculations, with 9 FD outs, (9x2=18) 18% or approximately 1 to 4 odds of hitting his flush on the turn.

    If I raise $100 up against 2 players with a 2 to a flush on the board, and if the UTG+1 finds his way to make the call, then the BTN is getting better than 4:1 pot odds to make a good call. (40+35+35+100+65=275) $274:$65 or 4.2:1

    The raise of $175 only gives the BTN, in the same situation, (40+35+35+175+140=425) $425:$140 or 3:1

    3:1 is not good enough pot odds to make the good call. Not when you consider the size of our stacks and a threat of another raise coming if the flush does not come on the turn.

    So, even though the bet feels too large, I believe mathematically it makes sense to make it. IMO It keeps my opponents from playing well against me and winning a big pot.
  • SammwiggSammwigg Red Chipper Posts: 119 ✭✭
    N A wrote: »
    Also, keep in mind, you don't want to force your opponents to make the right decision

    Agreed, so where is that balance? How far do you let multiple players stay in the hand without risking “too much” equity? I guess that is a personal risk vs reward threshold we all have to work out. Or can that be solved mathematically?
  • N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
    edited May 2018
    Sammwigg wrote: »
    N A wrote: »
    Also, keep in mind, you don't want to force your opponents to make the right decision

    Agreed, so where is that balance? How far do you let multiple players stay in the hand without risking “too much” equity? I guess that is a personal risk vs reward threshold we all have to work out. Or can that be solved mathematically?

    For example,

    your top pair vs flush draw is about 70% favorite on the flop. That means your opponents need to have 2:1 pot odds to call.

    From here, you can bet to make his pot odds a little bit less than 2: 1.

    Btw, people in low stakes will call with flush draws anyway.

    But, my play here is to bet at least to make his pot odds a little bit less than 2: 1 ( if I put him on a flush draw)
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,396 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2018
    Why do you want to raise ?
    A question which implies: with which range do you raise, what range you are targeting, and what reactions you are expecting.

    Once you know why you can question your sizing as the last has to support your overall strategy.

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