Really good study hand

Manny HManny H Red Chipper Posts: 24 ✭✭
10NL Ignition

BTN 1490 laggy
Hero1631 laggy in the BB dealt :Ad:Qh

F... BTN open 35, F, Hero Raise 95, BTN C

pot 195 :7h:7c:2c

Hero B 107, BTN C

pot 409 :7h:7c:2c:2h

Hero B 350, BTN C

pot 1109 :7h:7c:2c:2h:9s

Hero...

At the time I figure it was a 50/50 whether to BLUFF or XF. I could not decide on a BLUFF SIZE.
Hero X, BTN X and show :Ah:3h

Comments

  • PapaGiorgioPapaGiorgio Red Chipper Posts: 83 ✭✭
    I think there's too much risk to bet here. Your read was that BTN is laggy. If so, then wouldn't you have expected him to raise at some point in the hand? I would think a LAG raises with the club draw, and I would think a LAG would also just call down with JJ-TT if he reads you as a LAG (you are betting his hand). If you bet, then how many hands in his calling range can you beat? If you check, then how wide of range would be bet, and how many of these are hands you beat? My natural play would be to check-call here given the texture and belief that LAGs bet a wider range than they would call.
  • Manny HManny H Red Chipper Posts: 24 ✭✭
    Papa:
    I agree that a bluff would have been very risky and thats why I was 50/50. And I NEVER think I can beat his calling range. Isn't that what a proper bluff is?

    I think my large bet OTT puts BTN on PP, mostly 33-66, and sometimes 88-JJ, and a lot of Ax (hearts and clubs) and of course 4 traps.

    Lets say he calls PP+ (46 combos) and SOMETIMES folds TK (17 combos) ALWAYS folds 9h8h-KhQh- (5 combos) - than this is bad news for us.

    BUT if V always raise 88-JJ, than we have 5 always Fold, 17 Fold or Call, and 24 usually Call than a Jam may very well get the job done. I'm not sure i quite have the balls for this move yet.

    I was thinking the only Bluff size is a Jam but this maybe be total spew. I am uncapped after all and V looks like a thinking player. What do you think about that?

    I don't think I understand the XC line OTR. We are soooo far behind here and our range is so far ahead that if he bets we are ALWAYS beat, right?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I am uncapped after all and V looks like a thinking player. What do you think about that?

    How are you uncapped on 77229 board with a 3 bet pre, bet, bet, check line?

    1) i think 3 bet size preflop is too small
    2) dryish flop, I would cbet smaller in bloated pot around 80
    3) i think most of your range should check the turn unless you have some 7x in your 3 bet range. Maybe half pot barrel at best. *(open to correction on this)
    4) if villain is wide and will peel flop and turn with a hand like JcTc-KcTc then a check call maybe best. Your repping some Ax and 99+ still on the river when you check, so betting 33-88 will be thin value bet on his part after calling two barrels. Jamming river doesn't really accomplish much. Maybe someone sticky with 33-66 i guess. Trying to fold out a very narrow part of the range.
  • Manny HManny H Red Chipper Posts: 24 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    I am uncapped after all and V looks like a thinking player. What do you think about that?

    How are you uncapped on 77229 board with a 3 bet pre, bet, bet, check line?

    Maybe I do not understand what uncapped is, but when I 3B and V calls, I'm the only one who could have QQ+ here. So if I can rep TT+ and he mostly 4B JJ+, and he can rep like only 10 7x; 2x hands and 88-TT (maybe JJ). I think my 3B range is far superior to his 3B Call range. I think AQo should have landed outside my barrel range but so much of my cBet range is still far ahead of his OTT.
    And I'm saying I'm uncapped before I X OTR. Obviously when I X, I'm no longer repping 88+ as these would ALWAYS value bet the river, right?

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