99 Hand analysis

stumhstumh Red Chipper Posts: 83 ✭✭
1/2 Live. It’s my first session here in Seoul. Game is passive with a few big stacks glued to their phones. My game revolves around a loose passive player who has just stacked me.

Game is mostly Asian guys and there is no 3 betting.

Villain just sat down. He’s American. Very proper. Seems nervous to me.

6 handed. Hero picks up :9s :9c: utg +1. Loose passive is in BB. Hero opens to 7 and villain (to my direct left) makes it 14.

Hero calls.

Flop :Qs :7d :2h (31)
Hero check calls a 15 c-bet

Turn is :7c

Hero checks Villian checks.

River :Ad

Just like some input on the play and what I should do now.

Thanks.

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,539 ✭✭✭✭
    stumh wrote: »
    River :Ad

    Just like some input on the play and what I should do now.

    This is a very bad question. You shall not asked yourself that on the river.

    Villain is totally unknown, but playing on 1/2, you can't expect him to be a great player.
    • What do you expect him to 3bet with? QQ+/AK ? JJ+/AQ+? 99+/AJ+/KQs?
    • How do your 99 play against these range ? Use flopzilla (not free) or equilab (free) to check your equity.
    • Except 99, what else would you call a 3bet with ?
    • And what would you 4bet with ? (Do you even 4bet?)
    • What is your plan to play OOP with 99 when you don't hit your set ?

    Preflop call is understandable considering you are surely 100+BB deep and pot odds should be great. BUT you have to think about how to play your hand postflop before as Villain 3bet range will have a significant advantage against 99.

    Personally, I think you can either fold flop (missed set + dry static board) or fold pre if eff. stack isn't deep enough to set mining.

    Played like that on river, I think you can only check/fold. Villain has a lot of AX in his range (esp. AK) - maybe even a scared AQ. Yes, you could try to bet to make an eventual JJ fold, but it would be a terrible idea as you're going to be called too many times by better aka AX type of hands.
  • stumhstumh Red Chipper Posts: 83 ✭✭
    Thanks for the reply.
    The effective stacks where 200.
    I put him on a range of AQ+, TT+

    I think I am calling the min 3-bet with almost everything I open here given my pot odds. Certainly all pairs.

    I would only 4-bet QQ+ and AK.

    My plan was to check call any non Ace or King river because I felt the turn check was fairly indicative of something less strong. Here is where my logic fails me entirely.

    If the river is, say, :3s and I check and he bets I can easily be getting value bet on by TT-JJ. That thought process does not seem to correlate to a check fold on a K or A check fold river decision, because he is unlikely to have TT-JJ and bet this river.

    Is this just a case where I am in a tough spot either way because I am oop. I don't play alot of live (mostly a 10nl player) so this was quite a different experience for me.

    Flop decision - if he has TT+,AQs+,AQo+ then I am 27% against that range so it should have been a check fold.

    Can I ask - do you just internalise all of these equities to get a feel for them at the table?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,539 ✭✭✭✭
    stumh wrote: »
    Can I ask - do you just internalise all of these equities to get a feel for them at the table?

    Once you work off table often and regularly enough, you build a better guess of equity in different situation.
    This is why we study.
  • Dennis_LDennis_L Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    If no one has 3-bet at the table and this guy min 3-bet you, I don't think he wants you to fold...he's doing this to play a bigger pot with a hand he thinks is way ahead of yours. The AQ+, TT+ range you put him on seems reasonable to me. That being said, this is an awful river card and I would say you have to check fold here. I don't see any merit to calling any bet he might make on the river. The only way to avoid this spot would be to fold the flop UNLESS you hit a set or have an over pair to the board.
  • stumhstumh Red Chipper Posts: 83 ✭✭
    Thanks for the responses.

    I did check fold. If the river had been a “blank” (particularly a non broadway card) I was going to check call his bet assuming the sizing wasn’t odd.

    I’ve finally got to the ranges kart of core @Red so can see the type of work that needs to be done to understand these equities.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 713 ✭✭✭
    Given range assumption, how about this line of thinking:

    On the flop we call getting approx 3-1 on a hand that has approx 27% equity vs villain range on this flop. let's make him prove he has a hand

    turn checks thru. let's assume he now does not have AA,KK,QQ,AQ. that leaves TT,JJ,AK

    Ace on the river. Let's assume he is definitely folding his 12 combos of TT, JJ and calling/raising his 12 combos of AK

    we bet 1/2 pot which has a breakeven of 33% and make autoprofit on his 50% folds

    Just a thought

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