Need Help to Analyze a Downswing

talonjohntalonjohn Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
Hey Everyone,

Relatively new member here. I recently decided to switch from tournaments to cash. I knew I sucked at cash so I picked up Ed Miller's "The Course" and also began watching the MTT videos here on RCP. One of the videos that made a ton of sense was one here on RCP about 3-betting at small stakes. After a bit, I deposited $500 on ACA and began at $0.50/$1 stakes. By following Ed's advice and basically playing stronger hands pre-flop (especially in position) than everyone else and assuming everyone is playing straightforwardly - I had immediate success. I bet my value hands and seemingly picked good bluffing spots. I switched to $1/$2 but really had the most success at $2/$4. Soon $500 went to $1,200, then $1,600, then $2,600. This was all in a matter of 3,500 hands. I even tried to cash out $1,100 but the ACA suffered a DoS attack (apparently) immediately after my cashout attempt.

After my cashout attempt failed, I thought "fine, I'll just run it up a bit more and try again in a few days." But my plan failed. I had one really bad session followed by a slightly less bad second session. I lost like 9 buy-ins ($1,800) in less than 2 days or about 900 hands. I really don't know what happened. I don't know if I got too loose. Or if I was trying to target certain players unsuccessfully. Or maybe because I started playing at different times against different opponents. Or simply just run-bad. My frustration is I really don't know how to analyze the data. I've had Poker Co-Pilot running the entire time. But, other than sorting for the biggest hands and then running them through the replayer - I don't know what to do to fix my leaks.

What do you guys do with HUD/Replayer data to get better?

What do you suggest for me?

Any help is very much appreciated. I really like the site and I want to continue to get better.5hztzgq3xn4f.png

Comments

  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭✭
    The first thing I would suggest would be to look into bankroll management. For someone who just switched to cash, you put an extremely high percentage of your roll at risk every time you sat down. Second, the higher up in stakes you go, the more difficult the opponent. I don't think that you have enough of a sample of hands to determine a downswing. It's much more likely that you have considerable leaks in your game and got exposed against tougher competition.
  • talonjohntalonjohn Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    That's fair. Speaking of leaks, what do you think of these analysis suggestions from Poker Copilot?

    https://pokercopilot.com/8-steps-to-improve-your-poker-game
  • jimbo123jimbo123 Red Chipper Posts: 107 ✭✭
    5000 hands is nothing; a more 'reasonable' analysis can be made around the 50k hands mark.

    If you go on http://www.pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/ plug in 10BB/100 win rate and 5k hands sample. With a 95% confidence interval you could be winning at 40BB/100 or losing at -20BB/100
  • talonjohntalonjohn Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    So you don't think all this data is useable.?
    Maybe just post some of the big hands?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,060 ✭✭✭✭
    talonjohn wrote: »
    So you don't think all this data is useable.?
    Maybe just post some of the big hands?

    Post any HH in which you found yourself confused. Not just the big hands but small and medium pots too. Big hands usually play themselves.

    As @Ninjah said read up on bankroll management. How high did you think you could climb?

    I had a friend in the past used 8-10 buyins and climb from .5\1 to 5\10 online in the matter of 2-3 months. Takes great discipline to go up and down levels though.

    10 buyins to start at .5\1 ($1000) which he kept playing until he reached ($2000) for $1\$2. If he dropped 5 buyins back down to $1000 he moved back down to .5\1. Once he reached $4000 he played 400nl. He did this while 4 tabling and quickly moved up the levels. This was all an experiment of his though having had played the games for years already and beating mid stakes already as well.

    Typical bankroll is minimum of 30 buyins for a recreational player where the bankroll can be replaced. 50 buyins would be for a more serious player, usually one who multitables and 100 buyins for a professional player where the bankroll can't be replaced.
  • talonjohntalonjohn Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    ^^ This is good advice. Thanks
  • talonjohntalonjohn Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    No Limit Hold'em $2.00/$4.00
    Winning Poker Network
    7 players
    Formatted by pokercopilot.com: Poker HUD for Mac and Windows

    Stacks:
    UTG - UTG ($558.75)
    UTG+1 - UTG+1 ($400.00)
    MP - MP ($384.65)
    CO - CO ($533.26)
    BTN - BTN ($651.61)
    SB - Hero ($379.18)
    BB - BB ($410.00)

    Preflop: ($6.00, 7 players) Hero is SB with Ah As
    2 folds, MP raises to $9.00, 2 folds, Hero raises to $22.00, 1 fold, MP calls $13.00

    Flop: Jh 2c 9s ($48.00, 2 players - Hero: $357.18, MP: $362.65)
    Hero bets $20.00, MP calls $20.00

    Turn: 4c ($88.00, 2 players - Hero: $337.18, MP: $342.65)
    Hero bets $40.00, MP calls $40.00

    River: 5c ($168.00, 2 players - Hero: $297.18, MP: $302.65)
    Hero bets $80.00, MP raises to $302.65 (all-in), Hero calls $217.18 (all-in), Uncalled bet of $5.47 returned to MP

    Total Pot: $762.36
    Hero shows Ah As (with One pair of As)
    MP shows Tc 9c (with Flush, 10 high)

    MP wins $759.36 with Flush, 10 high

    Obvious fold?4bisyjcjq9zv.png
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,060 ✭✭✭✭
    talonjohn wrote: »
    No Limit Hold'em $2.00/$4.00
    Winning Poker Network
    7 players
    Formatted by pokercopilot.com: Poker HUD for Mac and Windows

    Stacks:
    UTG - UTG ($558.75)
    UTG+1 - UTG+1 ($400.00)
    MP - MP ($384.65)
    CO - CO ($533.26)
    BTN - BTN ($651.61)
    SB - Hero ($379.18)
    BB - BB ($410.00)

    Preflop: ($6.00, 7 players) Hero is SB with Ah As
    2 folds, MP raises to $9.00, 2 folds, Hero raises to $22.00, 1 fold, MP calls $13.00

    Flop: Jh 2c 9s ($48.00, 2 players - Hero: $357.18, MP: $362.65)
    Hero bets $20.00, MP calls $20.00

    Turn: 4c ($88.00, 2 players - Hero: $337.18, MP: $342.65)
    Hero bets $40.00, MP calls $40.00

    River: 5c ($168.00, 2 players - Hero: $297.18, MP: $302.65)
    Hero bets $80.00, MP raises to $302.65 (all-in), Hero calls $217.18 (all-in), Uncalled bet of $5.47 returned to MP

    Total Pot: $762.36
    Hero shows Ah As (with One pair of As)
    MP shows Tc 9c (with Flush, 10 high)

    MP wins $759.36 with Flush, 10 high

    Obvious fold?4bisyjcjq9zv.png

    Your bet sizing sucks pretty much on all streets.

    Preflop your oop and you practically minraised. Are you playing limit? Pop it up to around $40 pre.

    River is a clear fold. Ask yourself what bluffs does he do this with? Has all AcJc-JcTc combos, some sdfd combos that would peel.

    What is your current BR? Your playing with like 4 buyins? Last post was 1800 and your playing 2\4? Maybe I would play 50NL, definitely not 100NL.

    Also top off when you play.

    Your playing 30\19\7 cbet 73.

    Cbetting probably a bit too much. Big gap between your vpip and pfr so probably calling too often instead of 3 betting or folding.

    Lots of improvement to be had.
  • talonjohntalonjohn Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    edited May 16
    First let me clarify, this is villian's stats.
    Second, your 4.5X 3-betting pre-flop with AA?
    Wow, you must play on some pretty active tables!
    You don't think he has KK, QQ or AJ 20% of the time?
    Thanks for the feedback thus far
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭✭
    talonjohn wrote: »
    First let me clarify, this is villian's stats.
    Second, your 4.5X 3-betting pre-flop with AA?
    Wow, you must play on some pretty active tables!
    You don't think he has KK, QQ or AJ 20% of the time?
    Thanks for the feedback thus far

    Yes, you are out of position and should increase your sizing. It's highly unlikely that he has QQ or KK as most opponents will 4b those hands pre and AJ has enough showdown value here to not turn the hand into a bluff by jamming river. It sounds like hand reading and bet sizing may be potential leaks.
  • talonjohntalonjohn Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    Well I welcome any criticism, that's a little broad. All bet sizing was bad or just pre-flop?

    OK, so if villian is unlikely to have KK, QQ than the suggested 4.5X 3-bet pre-flop would have blown villian off the hand, right?
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭✭
    talonjohn wrote: »
    Well I welcome any criticism, that's a little broad. All bet sizing was bad or just pre-flop?

    OK, so if villian is unlikely to have KK, QQ than the suggested 4.5X 3-bet pre-flop would have blown villian off the hand, right?

    No, that sizing from the blinds as a 3b is completely standard.
  • talonjohntalonjohn Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    So everyone is supporting the low variance play here?
    You only use AA for beating other nutish preflop ranges?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,060 ✭✭✭✭
    talonjohn wrote: »
    So everyone is supporting the low variance play here?
    You only use AA for beating other nutish preflop ranges?

    If you polarize your 3bets to say
    AA 6 combos
    Kk 6 combos
    QQ 6 combos
    AKo\s 16 combos
    A3s-A5s 12 combos
    65s-87s 12 combos

    You have 34 value combos and 24 bluff combos. Build on it as you may.

    The entire time you were climbing up you didn't notice anyone making a 3bet of 10-15bb? Did you really put them on AA every time? Surely you must of notice some wacky showdowns.

    Were sizing up in NL to make the other player in different about calling. Ask yourself what other hands your 3 betting so small with?

    Post some HH and stats and maybe we can help.
  • talonjohntalonjohn Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    Thanks a lot Austin. When I get home I'll post another meaningful hand, and try to be more clear with my thought process and include the villian's stats. Basically, I was following Ed Miller's "The Course" ($1/2 - $2/$4 advice) by playing fewer marginal hands OOP than everyone else and barreling. Most of my money was made by aggressively barreling. I was amazed at how many people were folding rivers compared to MTTs. And because I was doing that, I guess I got a table image pretty quickly because I would get paid off with premiums as well. It was like the best of both worlds.

    Now I realize it was probably just some good ole fashioned run-good. So, looking back - I'm trying to not throw the baby out with the bath water and actually isolate the spots in which I was pressing my luck versus the times that I was actually playing sound poker. But even with Poker Copilot it can be hard to isolate the right data/hands. After all, the biggest losing or winning hands could just be coolers. I really appreciate the feedback so far here in the forums.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,060 ✭✭✭✭
    Most of my money was made by aggressively barreling. I was amazed at how many people were folding rivers compared to MTTs. And because I was doing that, I guess I got a table image pretty quickly because I would get paid off with premiums as well. It was like the best of both worlds.

    @talonjohn this is why balance with AA or Ak come into play. Bases on your sizing they shouldn't be able to tell if you have ace high or an over pair.
  • talonjohntalonjohn Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    Makes total sense, and I admit this was an error. (Even if river was a blank) How often is table flow affecting your decision here. Like, if you haven't seen 3-bets called often I know you would increase your 3-bet frequency. But there's no element of trying to keep them in with their marginal hands?
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,137 ✭✭✭✭
    @talonjohn tough love coming your way -

    Move down, and learn to crush.

    Based on what you wrote above you have close to zero chance of beating online MSNL at this point. Save your money and grind/study more at the micros, and then work your way up to MSNL.

    GL on the felt
  • talonjohntalonjohn Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    Tough love accepted. And I plan on going down in stakes. Maybe not down to the pennies, but definitely down. Posting hands seems the most helpful (although just analyzing pre-flop ... meh) so I'll continue to do that as well as moving down.
  • talonjohntalonjohn Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    So actually, I think it would be more meaningful to "analyze the upswing" since apparently I had no business playing above micros despite 5X-ing my BR. (not meaning to sound sarcastic)
  • talonjohntalonjohn Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    So I did just that. I think its enlightening. Here's roughly my top 15 winning/losing hands of my upswing/downswing cycle.8ct8aqpcqc37.png
    tsnk1bozy1en.png
  • talonjohntalonjohn Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    Top hands all luck. I think I still suck. I should have cashed out most and then played micros

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