Squeeze play and get min 4bet

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
Effective stacks 260
Btn 1
Sb 2
Bb 3
Straddle 6
Utg1 calls 6
Mp1 calls 6
Mp2 raises to 15
Hj calls 15
CO Hero :4d :5d raises to 55
Folds around to mp2 who makes it $110 with 150 behind
Hero? 55 to win 204 if my math is correct.

What's your play?

Comments

  • BigFarmBigFarm MontrealRed Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭
    Call and continue if you get any piece of the flop with no A or K?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    BigFarm wrote: »
    Call and continue if you get any piece of the flop with no A or K?

    Flop would be a shove. I think it's just a fold pre Flop despite 4:1. If there was 500 behind I would be calling.

    Just curious who calls pre and if folding is a mistake.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,705 ✭✭✭✭
    Have you been squeezing pre-flop a lot? Could V be playing back at you? In other words, based on your image and his image, any fold equity pre-flop if you shove?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Have you been squeezing pre-flop a lot? Could V be playing back at you? In other words, based on your image and his image, any fold equity pre-flop if you shove?

    He out in 110 out of 260. Do you think he folds? What hand min 4 bets half his stack and folds? Pretty much always AA here i think.

    Not sure if I can call anything here with so little left behind
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,705 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 16
    Austin wrote: »
    Have you been squeezing pre-flop a lot? Could V be playing back at you? In other words, based on your image and his image, any fold equity pre-flop if you shove?

    He out in 110 out of 260. Do you think he folds? What hand min 4 bets half his stack and folds? Pretty much always AA here i think.

    Not sure if I can call anything here with so little left behind

    Not disagreeing. I have seen some players just look to push back against an over-aggressive opponent with a pre-flop min-raise because it looks so strong. And I have seen some players fold to a 5-bet, even if with little behind, since they were just playing back.

    Not saying that's the case here -- just wondering if it is.

    For what it's worth, most people look at A5s as the bluff "balance" to a pre-flop aggressive range. I prefer 65s -- it has the best odds of any hand of beating aces. 54s isn't that far off. As it were, you have enough equity to call. At that point, though, shoving pre might be wiser since you don't want to be in a position post-flop where you flop, say, a gut-shot straight and back-door flush draw but fold, releasing your equity. You got yourself here making a move with the wrong hand...

    My thought moving forward is to pick better hands to squeeze -- ones that you can comfortably meet aggression with or ones that you can fold without a second thought -- and better spots -- deeper stacks with this hand so that you can call and play post-flop. And it seems like you ignored stack sizes. In this case, I think that a squeeze to, say, $80 would have been better. More fold equity, better odds to call depending on the stack size of which, if any, V shoves, and easy odds to fold depending on which, if any, V shoves.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 205 ✭✭✭
    This seems like a mess of a situation. You're super shallow to be doing stuff like this. After two limps, a raise and a flat, why are you raising not even 4x? Your sizing is really only ensuring there's going to be some kind of trouble here, coming in the form of either getting reraised or called in one or more spots. Then you've got a bloated pot on your hands with 5-high.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Sizing is small due to stacks. It is almost 4x though but kinda small compared to the pot. There is not much need to go larger than 65 i think as their stacks are already being threatened. I actually had a large stack at the table, just shallow effective stacks.

    @moishetreats you said make it $80 here. If stacks were say $500 do you make it $150 (10x)? Are you just using a standard size for every stack size? For my personally if stacks are shallow ill go 2.5x-4x and if stacks are deeper i can go 5-6x.

    Also completely disagree with shoving preflop as this hand will have zero fold equity and that is just pure gambling. You wanna put in additional $200 with zero FE with a hand that when called is 100% behind? I don't understandu your logic. People use A5s because the Ace has 30% equity and blocks 25% of their Ak, AA combos.

    What I have been doing lately is
    Utg opens 10
    Mp calls 10
    Hero makes it 45
    1 caller
    Flop (100) A97
    Hero bets 40

    30-40% cbet with a 3.5-5.5x 3bet has been printing me money on this level. The down bet is really nice on the boards that favor my range and stacks are generally around 75-125bb so the SPR is usually <4. Reminds me of the zone poker strategy vs unknowns. Keep betting until you face aggression.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 205 ✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Sizing is small due to stacks. It is almost 4x though but kinda small compared to the pot. There is not much need to go larger than 65 i think as their stacks are already being threatened. I actually had a large stack at the table, just shallow effective stacks.

    As you mentioned, the size is just so small compared to the pot. The bet is practically forcing the initial raiser/flatter to continue with so much in the pot already.

    Also, you're right, the bet is still large enough to threaten stacks. So, we end up in a spot where the bet is incentivizing them to continue, but also putting stacks in play, meaning you will be getting jammed on more often than usual. That's costly when you're going to be 3-bet folding a higher percentage than usual.

    Of course this all changes if these guys are opening and folding to your 3-bets an inordinate amount of time. Still feels a little sketchy from CO though.
    Austin wrote: »
    What I have been doing lately is
    Utg opens 10
    Mp calls 10
    Hero makes it 45
    1 caller
    Flop (100) A97
    Hero bets 40

    I actually love this as a general default with an SPR as you described, though in this particular case, if you were called and saw a flop, you would have ended up with a pretty wack SPR and no real play left.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Roblivion wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    Sizing is small due to stacks. It is almost 4x though but kinda small compared to the pot. There is not much need to go larger than 65 i think as their stacks are already being threatened. I actually had a large stack at the table, just shallow effective stacks.

    As you mentioned, the size is just so small compared to the pot. The bet is practically forcing the initial raiser/flatter to continue with so much in the pot already.

    Also, you're right, the bet is still large enough to threaten stacks. So, we end up in a spot where the bet is incentivizing them to continue, but also putting stacks in play, meaning you will be getting jammed on more often than usual. That's costly when you're going to be 3-bet folding a higher percentage than usual.

    Of course this all changes if these guys are opening and folding to your 3-bets an inordinate amount of time. Still feels a little sketchy from CO though.
    Austin wrote: »
    What I have been doing lately is
    Utg opens 10
    Mp calls 10
    Hero makes it 45
    1 caller
    Flop (100) A97
    Hero bets 40

    I actually love this as a general default with an SPR as you described, though in this particular case, if you were called and saw a flop, you would have ended up with a pretty wack SPR and no real play left.

    Polarized ranges makes it pretty easy to punt or fold
  • Jmo925Jmo925 Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    I think hero got overzealous with his 54s, with the action given i don't see how anyone ever folds to this raise(specially to a player with a loose image, which I'm assuming hero has cause he's capable of making this play in particular). I think you have very little fold equity in this spot which makes this play way too risky for me to implement. That being said after you get for 4bet you're basically dead, i guess you have some equity against AKs but not enough to continue. As stated above I'd look for better spots to squeeze.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,705 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Sizing is small due to stacks. It is almost 4x though but kinda small compared to the pot. There is not much need to go larger than 65 i think as their stacks are already being threatened. I actually had a large stack at the table, just shallow effective stacks.

    I'm still of the belief, along with others, that this sizing given the stacks puts you into the awkward position in which you find yourself here.
    Austin wrote: »
    @moishetreats you said make it $80 here. If stacks were say $500 do you make it $150 (10x)? Are you just using a standard size for every stack size? For my personally if stacks are shallow ill go 2.5x-4x and if stacks are deeper i can go 5-6x.

    Or $80ish, where you have a clear call/fold to a 5bet/shove. You'd need to determine beforehand which you prefer. Again, $55 is just too awkward.

    All that being said, I'm still not a fan of this play in this spot.
    Austin wrote: »
    Also completely disagree with shoving preflop as this hand will have zero fold equity and that is just pure gambling. You wanna put in additional $200 with zero FE with a hand that when called is 100% behind? I don't understandu your logic.

    No, I don't! And not what I said! I said that you're in a poor position here, one that I would try to avoid. I also asked about fold equity earlier; if there were any meaningful fold equity, then it would be a different consideration. What I DID write is that you're getting to a point with your hand, given the awkward squeeze size, where you actually DO have enough equity to call. That's the problem: with a low SPR, it plays poorly post-flop -- and you'd almost need to follow through if you get anywhere close to anything on the flop. If you were to call the min-raise, then you're all-but committed if you hit even a pair or a draw. Otherwise, calling the min-raise pre-flop is throwing away money. So, if you did have any FE, then shoving becomes a possibility. IF.

    Or, better yet -- don't raise to $55 here!!
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thank you all for your responses. I think $65 is about the correct 3bet sizing. Any larger and your commited against the $200 stacks. If they shove $200 there will be roughly 300 in the pot and around $120 to call.

    Need to pick a spot with better stack depth where i can 3bet larger. My hand is ok to do it with. Usually want to use the lower SCs.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,540 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    My hand is ok to do it with.
    This is where I disagree.

    Yes, SC are good to mix in our 3bet range as it gives us board coverage (but we lose blockers). My last 3bet was 7s6s, so I understand.
    - Here you face multiple limpers - you're not sure they will fold even if they shall often. If one call, other may follow more easily. Or maybe they feel kinky or just shove a shirty stack with 33-ish type of hand.
    - MP2 with an uncapped range. Does he fold to 3bet a lot? (Also, most unstudied Villain don't open the same range if with or without previous limpers)
    - What does MP2 4 bet with ? Is it the expected low stake KK+ ? Or else and you expect any postflop FE?

    54s is ok to 3bet one in a while, but we rely a lot on outright profit aka preflop fold. And I'm not sure it was a situation to raise.
    I think I'd have fold preflop.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    My hand is ok to do it with.
    This is where I disagree.

    Yes, SC are good to mix in our 3bet range as it gives us board coverage (but we lose blockers). My last 3bet was 7s6s, so I understand.
    - Here you face multiple limpers - you're not sure they will fold even if they shall often. If one call, other may follow more easily. Or maybe they feel kinky or just shove a shirty stack with 33-ish type of hand.
    - MP2 with an uncapped range. Does he fold to 3bet a lot? (Also, most unstudied Villain don't open the same range if with or without previous limpers)
    - What does MP2 4 bet with ? Is it the expected low stake KK+ ? Or else and you expect any postflop FE?

    54s is ok to 3bet one in a while, but we rely a lot on outright profit aka preflop fold. And I'm not sure it was a situation to raise.
    I think I'd have fold preflop.

    It's similar to the 72o game where everyone pays if you win with 72. Say the pot is $100 and you bet $100 so you need 50% folds. However, with the extra money involved you probably only need 30-40% folds.

    54s is dropped to a lower part of my range and playing in formation due to the extra dead money in the pot. How often do i need V to fold here to show a profit? Im raising to $55 to win $54, so villain is calling $40 to win $109. If he folds 27% of his range here it's profitable. Please correct me on my math here. Seems like I need more folds...
  • Fernando OFernando O Red Chipper Posts: 68 ✭✭
    edited May 17
    How often do i need V to fold here to show a profit? Im raising to $55 to win $54, so villain is calling $40 to win $109. If he folds 27% of his range here it's profitable. Please correct me on my math here. Seems like I need more folds..[/i].

    Austin,

    Think of the spot in terms of stacks. You started the hand with $260. If V ends up folding to your 3 -bet, of $55, you will have a stack of $308. You need him to fold X% of the time.

    260 = 308X + 205(1-X)
    260 = 308X + 205- 205X
    55 = 103X
    0.534 = X


    However, keep in mind that you have equity - so he needs to call a bit more often - and you looked at the spot synchronically - it is a multiway bluff, so you need many to fold

    F
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 205 ✭✭✭
    @Fernando O is correct. You need all players to fold about half the time or more for this play to be an auto-profit spot.
    Austin wrote: »
    Im raising to $55 to win $54, so villain is calling $40 to win $109. If he folds 27% of his range here it's profitable. Please correct me on my math here. Seems like I need more folds...

    That 27% is the equity V would need to call your raise (assuming you were all in or agreed to check down.)

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Still seems off because the $55 is not a PSB. A PSB would be $84. Then villain would be calling $69 to win $138. If PSB is designed where you need 50% folds to show a profit and i bet pretty far under PSB it doesn't make sense to still need 50% folds.

    https://redchippoker.com/fold-equity-calculator/

    If I give myself 18% equity when called I need 34% folds to show a profit. At a PSB of $84 I need 46% folds.
  • Fernando OFernando O Red Chipper Posts: 68 ✭✭
    edited May 17
    Still seems off because the $55 is not a PSB.

    Before you made your bet of $55, the pot had (1+2+3+6+6+6+15+15) $54, so you basically bet the Pot.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 205 ✭✭✭
    Okay, a few things here.

    1. A PSB will show an automatic profit on later streets if it gets folds more than 50% of the time because hero is betting a 1:1 ratio. So, preflop, even though your raise is not pot-sized, the amount you are risking is still equal to the amount you stand to make.

    2. Correct, if you put your equity to 18%, you need less folds. I was coming at it from an auto-profit line of thinking. If you make your equity 0, the calculator will reflect the 50% necessary. I do agree that since you have some equity, it makes sense to factor it in, but at the time you put your raise in you are not heads up, so you're effectively splitting your equity with the rest of the table. Something more like 8% would probably be more in order.

    3. I also think it's worth noting the distinction that you need folds from EVERYONE this percentage of time, including the 4 people behind you that have not yet acted.
  • Fernando OFernando O Red Chipper Posts: 68 ✭✭
    260 = 308X + 205(1-X)
    260 = 308X + 205- 205X
    55 = 103X
    0.534 = X


    A minor correction. When all fold to your 3 bet your stack is $314 - not $308 - so the last two lines of the above equation will be:
    55 = 109X
    0.504 =X
  • Fernando OFernando O Red Chipper Posts: 68 ✭✭
    Also bear in mind that math equations are supplements to help verify if a chosen line of play has been through suitable consideration; in this case I think thought should not be diverted from range construction, stack depth, formation, to math equation construction.

    F
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thanks @Fernando O & @Roblivion for the math break down.

    Calc did say 50% when you change it to 0% equity when called. If i change it to betting $84 (PSB) and 8% equity its 56% FE.

    I think 60-65 better sizing overall, but considering this player usually limps, he is not folding 50% of his betting range here.

    He could be adjusting, but too small of a sample as he folded KK to me face up vs my 4bet the day before. Hero open 15 + 2 callers, V sb raises to 45, hero raises to 120. V tank folded KK face up. About $400 behind. With that said i plan on 4 betting him quite a bit more with Axs. He won't risk his stack without AA above 100bb i guess.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 205 ✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    I think 60-65 better sizing overall, but considering this player usually limps, he is not folding 50% of his betting range here.

    Just to be clear, we need the whole table to fold half the time, not just the opener. So, even if MP1 continues 30%, MP2 continues 30% and everyone else continues 2%, someone will be continuing more than half the time.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Roblivion wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    I think 60-65 better sizing overall, but considering this player usually limps, he is not folding 50% of his betting range here.

    Just to be clear, we need the whole table to fold half the time, not just the opener. So, even if MP1 continues 30%, MP2 continues 30% and everyone else continues 2%, someone will be continuing more than half the time.

    I understand.

    Q#2 is this a good spot to ask if V wants to check it down getting 4:1?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,505 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's 40 big blind poker.

    What are we doing here with 5 high?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    It's 40 big blind poker.

    What are we doing here with 5 high?

    Bet looked weak, just trying to take advantage of the situation, not a normal part of my range construction.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,505 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Alright so just fold and move on. The purpose of your raise fell through, mission over.

    I'd be more inclined to call if he really had min raised you and subsidized the call a lil more.

    Either way you go, you are in realization land now and the remaining strategic play is just janitorial.
  • Fernando OFernando O Red Chipper Posts: 68 ✭✭
    "What are we doing here with 5 high?"

    The Joker does not concern himself with such things :-)

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