AJo squeeze?

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,167 ✭✭✭✭✭
Table has been loose and splashy with a lot of pots going 6-8ways. I seem to be the only person who can find the fold button.

Utg raises to 15
4 callers
Hero :As :Jc ?

A) call
B) 3 bet $75
C) fold
D) other?

Effective stacks 300-400.

This seems to be my #1 squeeze hand as of late. I've squeezed this spot so many times last few weeks. Unless utg is a tight player is this a squeeze every time?

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,427 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Table has been loose and splashy with a lot of pots going 6-8ways. I seem to be the only person who can find the fold button.
    Sometimes they always call an opener but will fold more often v. a 3bet. Does this splashy-cally character also applies to 3bet pot?

    Moreover, you don't want UTG to call and incite other to come as well (worst situation). If UTG is position aware (aka with a strong range able to face a 3bet) or a station, I'm more reluctant to 3bet with AJo.
    In this situation, calling isn't too bad since against splashy player AJ is a good hand. BUT you need to have a plan for postflop and avoid to play bingo-poker: are they more fit-or-fold or straightforward ? prone to fold to a raise ? How do they act on unique board line monochrome or connected (like 987) ones ?
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,595 ✭✭✭✭
    Did you write what position you're in at the table?
  • stumhstumh Red Chipper Posts: 82 ✭✭
    Does anyone prefer making a larger raise? Say 100.

    As @Red says, you don’t want to incite a whist if calls (or go multi way at all really) because your SPR will be almost 1:1. Now granted if you make it 100 and effective stacks are 300 you might go to the flop with an SPR of close to that anyway, but I think there is a big inflection point somewhere between 75 and 100, particularly for the second player considering making the call.


    Personally with those stacks and these required raise sizes I prefer not to squeeze because aren’t we close to commitment PF if 4 bet?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,167 ✭✭✭✭✭
    In this particular spot i was in the SB. I think IP or OOP it's better to squeeze than play in a six way pot.

    Let's say I call here which I think maybe the worse option.
    Flop ($90) SPR 3-4
    Six ways and basically have to make a hand. Very similar to a bomb pot but slightly stronger ranges.

    By 3 betting if i get 4 bet it's an easy fold. Putting in less than 25% of my stack, but still putting a lot of pressure on the villains. I think $90 (6x) is the largest I would go here. Some people say 3x or 4x+15 per caller, but at a certain point the sizing becomes so large you want to cap it usually around 5-6x. If i get one caller the pot ~$210 and SPR about 1.5.

    Despite lower SPR i rather play 1.5 spr heads up than a 4 spr 6 ways with AJ or a lot of other hands actually.

    If its a competent opener then I think it just becomes a fold.

    @Red i was one of the only people 3 betting here it seems. I saw maybe 2 other 3 bets in 5 hrs of play which seems standard for 1\3 game. Usually bunch of limpers and a raise then a bunch of callers. Postflop would be 1\4 to 1\3 cbet depending on texture and any decent equity after cbetting would likely commit me depending on who called and a bunch of live intangibles that help make the decision easier.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,595 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    In this particular spot i was in the SB. I think IP or OOP it's better to squeeze than play in a six way pot.

    I agree entirely here. I was asking about position because of the number of players after you. In SB, there's only one player left to act, and I feel that squeezing becomes even more attractive.

    I would consider a higher amount pre-flop, though.
  • Jmo925Jmo925 Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    Am I to tight for folding in this spot? I hate being out of position and i hate the idea of being dominated. I don't see how i can navigate this minefield profitably.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,595 ✭✭✭✭
    Jmo925 wrote: »
    Am I to tight for folding in this spot? I hate being out of position and i hate the idea of being dominated. I don't see how i can navigate this minefield profitably.

    Folding isn't bad or wrong. Raising isn't bad or wrong. Or even calling in theory. The question is which is better given table dynamics, stacks sizes, your image, and the tendencies of the players at the table pre- and post-flop.

    The only thing that would be sub-optimal would be deciding to fold, raise, or call without considering those factors.

    As an exercise for yourself, @Jmo925, I'd take a deck of cards, 15 note cards, and 30-60 minutes. Create 15 different player "profiles" and stack sizes, and write them on the note cards. Put them out around the table. Give yourself AJo every time, then deal out some hands face-down. Imagine folding, calling, or raising, then dealing out the rest of the hand. What paths unfold given the run-outs, "opponents", and stack sizes? Then you'll be able to apply that back to the table.

    Returning to the original post, it seems like lots of players are simply happy calling a raise pre-flop. That's a good opportunity to [consider] apply[ing] pressure to the dead money.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,167 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Jmo925 wrote: »
    Am I to tight for folding in this spot? I hate being out of position and i hate the idea of being dominated. I don't see how i can navigate this minefield profitably.

    You play at bay101 right? The 2\5 game at bay you just have to make larger raises. In this exact spot say the original open was $20 but you know Villain always opens 25-35 with his strongest pairs. Here you would make it like $140 preflop where your risking $140 to win $105 or so. On 1\3 when stacks are deeper i find you have more fold equity than at 2\5.
  • EvilKermitEvilKermit Red Chipper Posts: 1 ✭✭
    I hate the option of raising to 75. If you do and get 1 call, the others are then getting a great price to call and you end up with the worst possible outcome, a bloated multiway pot oop. I really think you need to pop this to 105-125 pre if you're goung to squeeze. Take it down or get it HU.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,167 ✭✭✭✭✭
    EvilKermit wrote: »
    I hate the option of raising to 75. If you do and get 1 call, the others are then getting a great price to call and you end up with the worst possible outcome, a bloated multiway pot oop. I really think you need to pop this to 105-125 pre if you're goung to squeeze. Take it down or get it HU.

    You have to be aware of effective stack sizes. Raising to 105-125 basically commits you vs anyone if they shove.

    People keep saying others will get a great price, but how often do you see players put in 1\3 of their stack with KQ, JT, 77, etc preflop? It's not like these people have that tight of a calling range even. They can easily have a hand like A9o or 85s here and calling $15 to see a flop. Calling $15 and calling $75 are two different things.

    If you had AA would you also raise to $125 and try and force anyone out? There has to be a cap somewhere and usally its around 6x. Has about the same FE as 8x and you still get value with some weak hands. 5x is a little small and think $90 would be better, maybe 105 like you said, but stacks are not deep as it is. If you get them to put in more than 25% of their stack with a weak range that's great. Then AJ just becomes a merged bet.

    25% is what I use to use online for commitment standpoint for 4bets. Read an artical that stated like 33.8% or something, but still between 1\4th to 1\3 of your stack you can still profitably bluff and fold. This was more used for 4 bet pots where it goes 3bb open, 10bb 3bet, 25bb 4bet. With the live intangibles of opening 5x and MW nature the 25% now applies to 3 bets and 4bets just become a shove or flat call and slow play.

    Lets say you raise to 125 and initial raiser shoves 300. Now there is 485 in the pot and 175 to call. Do you fold getting 2.77:1, only need 27% equity which even vs KK you have. If you do a dominated suites AsJc vs KsKc your 28%. Against AKs your only 25%, but mix in some TT type hands and now it's a must call.

    I think the highest we can go here is 105 as a bluff and fold to a shove of 300 or more. People always said 2:1 have to call, but its closer to 3:1 vs dominated hands. Against a range of TT+ AQo+ AQs+ removing the suites we block with AsJc we are 28%. Slightly +EV call based on the math, but don't ignore the fact you priced yourself into a call.

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