Facing insane overbets with 98s - 2NL Zoom

LeChiffreLeChiffre Red Chipper Posts: 140 ✭✭
PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 101 BB (VPIP: 26.74, PFR: 18.60, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 86)
SB: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 15.63, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
BB: 127 BB (VPIP: 31.03, PFR: 24.14, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 29)
UTG: 113 BB (VPIP: 43.75, PFR: 37.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
MP: 459 BB (VPIP: 17.24, PFR: 17.24, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 30)
Hero (CO): 337 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has :9H: :8H:

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP calls 7 BB

Flop: (21.5 BB, 2 players) :7S: :8D: :4H:
MP bets 20.5 BB, Hero calls 20.5 BB

Turn: (62.5 BB, 2 players) :JH:
MP bets 119.5 BB, Hero ?

Zoom game so don't have any info on villain's tendencies, other than he looks to be a TAG.

Preflop light semi-bluff 3-bet in position. I think fairly standard. The fact that we're 300BB effective gives me plenty of playability postflop, especially in position.

Facing such a large donk bet on the flop I definitely did not see coming. I think he could do that with a variety of value hands, like 99-QQ, maybe weirdly played KK-AA, 44, 77, 88, maybe 65s which is not unreasonable to think he could call a 3-bet with since we're so deep. Maybe a bluff like T9s or frustrated AK. Hard to say. Might just be goofballing with A5 or A6.

Anyway, don't think I can fold flop? My hand still has decent (backdoor) equity against an overpair. Raising doesn't make much sense as I'm largely folding out worse and getting called by better in my estimation.

Insane 2x-pot bet on the turn puts me in a tough position when I turned one of the best cards in the deck. I mean what do I put him on here? I didn't really put him on bluffs anymore at this point... leaves weirdly played overpairs, pretty much all sets, 65s, T9s in worst case. Either way I'm drawing clean to a straight and flush (as I don't think he can have a better straight if I hit a T, and I can't really put him on a flush draw either, except for the one that already has a made straight). So that gives me like 12 outs. Sometimes an 8 or 9 will also be good, so we can up that a bit. So I think I have around 30% equity.

Since that's less than required (40%) I'd need him to keep going on rivers if I hit which I think is quite likely. My flush is for example fairly well disguised. So I decided to call, and fold to rivers facing bets if I don't improve. If he gives up on river and I didn't make my hand I still have some SDV, and maybe I can extract enough value if he checks to me and I bet my flush/straight/two pair/trips.

I stuck to that plan and eventually folded to a brick river shove.

Should I have played it differently?

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,027 ✭✭✭✭
    I think calling is ok if you believe hitting 2 pair is also good due to implied odds. If you do make your hand I am donk betting the river.

    I would also play around with shoving turn if you think there is any FE. Maybe he is turning 55 or 66 into a bluff? There's about 180bb left for a shove.... Not the best case as it's less than 3x. Pretty sick spot despite the stakes. If he has 3 combos left of T9s your in pretty bad shape.
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre Red Chipper Posts: 140 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    I would also play around with shoving turn if you think there is any FE. Maybe he is turning 55 or 66 into a bluff? There's about 180bb left for a shove.... Not the best case as it's less than 3x. Pretty sick spot despite the stakes. If he has 3 combos left of T9s your in pretty bad shape.

    Interesting... thought of shoving turn but I just had a feeling he wasn't bluffing and therefore didn't think I'd have the proper FE. But will look into it.

    I don't think many players overbet 2 times pot with a bluff on the turn. I think he was just trying to stack my overpair with his set/straight/two pair/what have you.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,027 ✭✭✭✭
    LeChiffre wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    I would also play around with shoving turn if you think there is any FE. Maybe he is turning 55 or 66 into a bluff? There's about 180bb left for a shove.... Not the best case as it's less than 3x. Pretty sick spot despite the stakes. If he has 3 combos left of T9s your in pretty bad shape.

    Interesting... thought of shoving turn but I just had a feeling he wasn't bluffing and therefore didn't think I'd have the proper FE. But will look into it.

    I don't think many players overbet 2 times pot with a bluff on the turn. I think he was just trying to stack my overpair with his set/straight/two pair/what have you.

    One of Barts youtube videos fits this hand pretty well.

  • LeChiffreLeChiffre Red Chipper Posts: 140 ✭✭

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