Call turn or ship?

jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
$1/3 splashy game, hero has been active with 3 bets. Hero $450 UTG TAG opens to $15 hero with :JC: :JS: flats. So UTG has been pretty snug,
I’d normally 3 bet JJ but people are fighting back vs the 3 bets now, and without enough FE and the fact that I don’t wanna make it $65-$85 to try to force FE I think is an overplay or JJ. BU calls SB calls B.B. folds.

Pot $60
Flop :KC: :JD: :TS:
SB leads for $20, UTG folds hero raises to $65 folds back to V (covers) who calls.

Pot $195
Turn :7D: V bets $70, hero has about $375 behind. What do you make of Vs betting? To me it smells like a Qx that’s trying to see a river. The thing is V has chosen a sizing that doesn’t really make sense for me to min raise, yet to over-ship for $375 to potentially deny equity when I could be getting snapped off by AQ or even 98 seems like trying to boat up doesn’t seem like a great play either. What’s your move? Flat and take a river IP or raise now for value and attempt to deny equity( BD diamonds also came in).

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    98 seems like an unlikely lead. AQ may 3 bet preflop or 3 bet the flop. The King not being a diamond is pretty big where he can have multiple hands of

    :KD: :QD: to :KD: :9D: that has a significant amount of equity vs your hand. I want to say bump it up to like 180 but I think a shove might be in order. Some gross river cards will put you in a tough spot and V may still call it off with TP+fd+sd.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    1. You've been aggressive, it seems. That means that people will stop believing you. Why dial down the aggression when you have a made hand? That's when you'll get paid off...

    2.
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    I don’t wanna make it $65-$85 to try to force FE
    Huh? Why on earth not??
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    I don't necessarily consider JJ a made hand, if I make it $65, 2 people call, and all of the sudden I may be facing very strong hands with a 2 SPR in which I forced to over ship a ton. What if the opener 4-bet me? Do I love shipping it in there praying I can flip it with AK? If a 3-bet to $45 doesn't have much FE, and V-1 UTG has shown to be rather cautious in his UTG opens, I don't think flatting jacks here is the worst thing to do. It may not be the best, and may be a bit 'cautious' with strong hand, 3-betting to 4-5x instead of 3x to try to smash FE is outside of my scope of poker. I'd rather try to show up with a better hand if no one is gonna fold.

  • ButchButch Red Chipper Posts: 163 ✭✭
    edited May 2018
    Shove. I think AQ would have re raised your flop bet. If he had not raised preflop for some reason. Or if he is a trappy slow player he would check call again here.
    Feels like a pair plus draw.
    As Austin said. he will call behind with pair plus draw or double draws.
    And what the hell? you do have boat outs.
    Smile and shove.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2018
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    I don't necessarily consider JJ a made hand, if I make it $65, 2 people call, and all of the sudden I may be facing very strong hands with a 2 SPR in which I forced to over ship a ton. What if the opener 4-bet me? Do I love shipping it in there praying I can flip it with AK?

    People have wider range where JJ is really strong. You shall not face only AK or similar. You can expect lower PP, many AX (even lower than AJo) and some other weird combos sometimes.

    Same on the flop, SPR of 2 will advantage overpairs. JJ will be ahead lot of the time - and be paid. And you still can try to bluff underbet/fold AXX flop if Villains are rather straightforward.

    In splashy games, JJ is a premium hand.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    I don't necessarily consider JJ a made hand, if I make it $65, 2 people call, and all of the sudden I may be facing very strong hands with a 2 SPR in which I forced to over ship a ton. What if the opener 4-bet me? Do I love shipping it in there praying I can flip it with AK?

    People have wider range where JJ is really strong. You shall not face only AK or similar. You can expect lower PP, many AX (even lower than AJo) and some other weird combos sometimes.

    Same on the flop, SPR of 2 will advantage overpairs. JJ will be ahead lot of the time - and be paid. And you still can try to bluff underbet/fold AXX flop if Villains are rather straightforward.

    In splashy games, JJ is a premium hand.

    Agreed.

    In addition, you're forgetting the fold equity that you have (and that you seem not to want to push). The times that they fold -- and you pocket the extra $18 -- also needs to be factored in.
  • Joe MartinezJoe Martinez Red Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
    Getting to a point where people are fighting back against your 3bets is a good thing. You've been applying constant pressure and they're getting tired of it. This is when people make mistakes. With a hand as strong as :Js :Jc keep applying the pressure. You say it's not a made hand, but is that how we should analyze situations in poker?
    We make money by playing strong hands against weaker hands and because our opponents make mistakes. In this scenario, think about the hands your opponent is going to play back at you with...sure nutted hands but you can see a rec players with the nuts a mile away...also 66-tens and AK-A9ss. I use this range specifically because I've seen it first hand. In these instances, half the time you're a favorite to win preflop 80%+ and the other half 54%-67%. Pile in the chips. Print money.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Just to clarify I think flatting JJ preflop is fine.

    Postflop vs the weak sizing and many draws possible, keep putting more money in. Many more combos of weaker hands then nutted hands that you will be called by.

    Also consider your future image. If you are flatting JJ here and it gets to show down, the next time you raise they will have an easy fold with 2 pair cause you only raise the nuts.
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 455 ✭✭✭
    This is a good example of why I like the 2.5x 3bet... You could bet 175 and still have 200 behind which is enough to leverage your stack.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Also consider your future image. If you are flatting JJ here and it gets to show down, the next time you raise they will have an easy fold with 2 pair cause you only raise the nuts.

    IF Villain pay attention
    AND
    IF they extrapolate your whole 3bet range based on 1 hand they saw.
    AND
    IF they are able to think in ranges

    Too many "if" IMHO :)
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Also consider your future image. If you are flatting JJ here and it gets to show down, the next time you raise they will have an easy fold with 2 pair cause you only raise the nuts.

    Seems fancy to me. You have a great hand to get paid off on here. Why delay that to try to steal a smaller pot later by getting an opponent to fold a better hand??
  • BadgerBadger Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    This is an interesting spot, thanks for posting it. By the way I like playing JJ this way preflop as well.

    The weak lead on the turn looks like a hand drawing but this is the initial raiser and he could be betting to induce, blocking, probing and/or building the pot. His lead on the turn is kind of interesting on a multitude of levels especially since you raised him on the flop. I really kind of like his bet and sizing here with his whole range.

    You say its a splashy game unless I really respected this TAG's range, I am shipping it in happily. I do think your right to be uneasy your over bet is forcing him to call off tighter.

    The real question here is your hand good enough to slow play with a call or small raise? On this board I don't think it is. There are a lot of hands with equity and a big raise takes that away.

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Also consider your future image. If you are flatting JJ here and it gets to show down, the next time you raise they will have an easy fold with 2 pair cause you only raise the nuts.

    Seems fancy to me. You have a great hand to get paid off on here. Why delay that to try to steal a smaller pot later by getting an opponent to fold a better hand??

    I am not sure what you are saying. Its fancy play syndrome to shove the turn with a set? I don't expect any better hands to fold here when we shove. I expect Q9 and AQ to obviously call, but I also expect worse hands to call as well. There just happen to be more combos of worse hands that will call off or fold a substantial amount of equity.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    Also consider your future image. If you are flatting JJ here and it gets to show down, the next time you raise they will have an easy fold with 2 pair cause you only raise the nuts.

    Seems fancy to me. You have a great hand to get paid off on here. Why delay that to try to steal a smaller pot later by getting an opponent to fold a better hand??

    I am not sure what you are saying. Its fancy play syndrome to shove the turn with a set? I don't expect any better hands to fold here when we shove. I expect Q9 and AQ to obviously call, but I also expect worse hands to call as well. There just happen to be more combos of worse hands that will call off or fold a substantial amount of equity.

    Nope. That's not fancy at all.

    What I meant was that, in this case, playing this hand to build a future image seems unnecessary; you want your image built in order to capitalize on this hand. I'd play this hand to try to maximize profit rather than to try to create an image for later.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    In addition, you're forgetting the fold equity that you have (and that you seem not to want to push). The times that they fold -- and you pocket the extra $18 -- also needs to be factored in.

    Hmmm...ya I mean if I was on BU and this got to me with 2-3 callers, I'd make it $100+...but I just don't wanna be smashing in such a huge raise for $18...I guess sure MAYBE I should 3-bet it, I know, I 3-bet a lot worse for sure, but I think occasionally having a strong hand as an over call can be very profitable as well.


    So I thought this
    This is a good example of why I like the 2.5x 3bet... You could bet 175 and still have 200 behind which is enough to leverage your stack.
    I thought this as well....but I just hate to have to see a few nasty rivers and feel like I gotta fold to river donk shoves. I also asked myself....can he call it off with pair + draw, as well as 2 pairs here? This could be a strangly and cautiously played 2 pair like K10 that wanted to lead, but then kind of got a bit scared by the raise and is playing it cautiously. Will he call $175-200, but not a turn shove of $375?

    You say its a splashy game unless I really respected this TAG's range, I am shipping it in happily. I do think your right to be uneasy your over bet is forcing him to call off tighter.
    So the UTG TAG folded...which really surprised me, cause I mean this board should really favor his UTG opening range.


    So the reason I posted this hand was for the 2 parts, one the turn decision and the strange line by SB V, and 2, because of the JJ pre-flop decision. I like pretty standard 3-bets to reflect the pot or dead money in the middle (dunno what to call it, pot or dead money if they have folded w.e), and when it starts to tip into the realm of sizing larger than that with a hand such as JJ to force the necessary FE to make this profitable, where do we draw the line? In addition, I really cherish position these days, and playing JJ with a ton of potential callers behind is less savory to me. In addition, is there no merrit to having a hand such as JJ flatted? I've gotten owned myself on a few times the ole JJ was flatted and I discounted it as a hand that they could have had. Is it more valuable to leave SPR higher, with a strong hand that has a ton of play-ability, or is it a capital crime to not try to pile chips in pre-flop with a hand with very strong equity. I've seen someone say the quote somewhere along the lines of "hands with really strong equity want money to go in on earlier streets", but a perceived 5-9% equity edge doesn't have me chomping at the bit to get all the money in there.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Is it more valuable to leave SPR higher, with a strong hand that has a ton of play-ability, or is it a capital crime to not try to pile chips in pre-flop with a hand with very strong equity.

    @jfarrow13 EP vs EP JJ is a pretty standard flat imo when stacks are 150bb. Similar to AQ where it doesn't really fit into a polarized range. Even QQ I will flat occasionally when UTG+1 vs UTG. Hell I made post where I flatted KK before as well.

    When people say it's a 3 bet preflop it is usually because they have problems folding over pairs. Lets say the flop goes 4 ways

    Flop ($60) :8D: :7D: :5H:
    SB bets $30
    Hero calls $30
    MP raises to $100
    SB shoves for $300
    Hero .. Here you should just fold.

    Some people will always 3 bet this hand preflop because they lack the ability to play good post flop poker, which includes fold over pairs from time to time.

    Now as you have stated if UTG raises to $15 and there are two calls in MP this to me you can go ahead and bump it up to $75 with the extra dead money. Some times a flat, but i say at least 75% of the time this should be a squeeze here given the extra incentive of dead money.

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