PLO 2nd Set 250BB

SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 731 ✭✭✭
5/5 mix NL/PLO

Very loose/splashy game

Effective stacks- UTG- $350, Hero -$1250 rest cover hero

UTG straddles $10
MP Calls
Hero in CO calls with :8s :Ts :9d :9h
SB raises to $60
UTG calls
MP calls
Hero in CO calls- multiway, not worried about BU reraising, 2nd last position, hand top 20%
This first question- should I fold?
BU calls

Pot $300

Flop :6d :9c :Qh

SB check
UTG goes all in for $300
MP calls
Hero calls- I just couldn't fold. UTG might have top set but I don't think that's a given, he is loose with the best o them. MP very loose. I felt if top set would have raised. I thought about raising but wanted to see what button would do and worried about hands that have a ton of equity
BU calls
SB fold

pot - $1200

Turn :Qc
MP leads $400
Hero??

Any and all thoughts about any part of the hand are welcome


Comments

  • Joseph BonoJoseph Bono Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    This is a gross spot, I am sorry for your pain.

    My default on the turn is going to be to fold. I think lots of loose villains will peel the flop with top two or top and bottom pair, and I certainly would expect QJT9 to be in there. You're a 3:1 favorite against a bare Q with 3 live side cards, which is the only real bluff I would expect here, but you are utterly crushed by all of the overfulls. This opponent is strongly incentivized to not bluff here given the dry side pot, being out of position, and having two opponents for the side pot. So unless you think this opponent is betting here (for value) with stuff like bottom boat or a wrap with a flush draw, I think you really have to fold.

    There ARE opponents that just really don't understand domination and have a very NLHE mindset of "a full house is the NUTS" that will bet here with 66xx. But I preferably want to have seen that behavior before this hand to make this call.

    You could consider turning your hand into a bluff, since you block the overfull, and the villain should have twice as many Q6 combos as Q9+QQ combos if they are playing random hands. Seems suicidal, since players who are loose enough to play hands with danglers in raised pots and bet here with the 2nd full are probably not going to release their hand. Worth thinking about, but I think we can discard this idea.

    --

    Thoughts on preflop and flop
    • I like calling the $10 preflop - this is a solid hand and you have position. You could consider raising to try to buy the button, which is a table dependent thing. Your hand doesn't have a ton of domination potential and has medium visibility, so I would not raise to make the pot bigger against bad hands. Right now it looks like you are going to go to the flop with 5 other players and a $60 pot for a SPR of around 11, which I think is not great for this particular hand, but I don't think there is a ton you can do to make things better unless you really think you can get it heads up or 3 ways with a raise.
    • Folding is defensible here - there is a fair chance that the raiser has AA or KK, which you would prefer to not have a pair in your hand when calling, and you won't have the button. It is very likely your flush suit will be dominated too. That said, calling isn't clearly wrong either - at loose tables you will have correct equity to do so, it really is just about being able to navigate the flop and turn correctly with a medium visibility hand. You are going to be going to the flop with an SPR of 4 against 4 opponents, which means you are going to play one or maybe two streets.
    • Your plan for the flop should be to get as much of your stack in as possible anytime you flop top set, nut straight with a redraw, or a 13 card nut wrap. I think you need to play cautiously if you flop a bare middle or bottom set, a nut straight with no redraw, or a marginal flush (which will be a fold most of the time if there is any aggression).
    • I wouldn't see this in real time and probably wouldn't have the stones to do it in real time either, but I think the correct play on the flop is to just get it in. You have a lot of equity with the double gutter and middle set, but it is poor visibility equity. While it is possible for you to be really crushed against two opponents, it's really really hard for you to be crushed by a single opponent's holding (outside of QQT8, which is low probability combinatorially). Raising here will get you heads up in the side pot a bunch and will do a tremendous job cleaning up and realizing your equity.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,425 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Sully wrote: »
    MP very loose. I felt if top set would have raised. I thought about raising but wanted to see what button would do and worried about hands that have a ton of equity

    This last comment isn't really logical. There's only one hand you're worried about and that's QQ. Yes, UTG could possibly have it, but there's side money to be played. MP says he doesn't have it. SB might, but odds are there are just players playing bad in this hand.

    If no one has QQ, or if it's UTG who does, you have the current nuts against everyone else with redrwaws to straights and boats. So you have no worry against hands that have a "ton of equity". You have a ton of equity now, so get the money in now. Omaha hands in multiway pots get confusing fast by the turn and river, and you avoid gross decisions later.

    And no, I'm not folding preflop. You could make an argument for raising yourself first and getting the button as Joseph said. SB probably has aces and if he's going to bloat the pot out of position in a multiway hand and then check the flop, I'm fine with him playing this way. Even if he doesn't have aces. But in a loose splashy game I'd rather just call. In a game where there is plenty of action to be had post flop, then you're trying to speculate and see more flops for a reasonable price when you have range advantage. You don't have to get tricky.

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