KK villain wakes up on river flush card

ButchButch Red Chipper Posts: 157 ✭✭
1:3 nlh at MD Live casino. My stack $450. Villain's $300. Villain has played for couple hours and been up and down playing a whole lot of hands. I think plays any broadways, any pairs, any A, any K, most suited hands. Also mix in things like Q7o and J6o. Sticks when he hits a pair. Shows down some very luck rivers. Mostly he calls, he is not betting out or raising much at all.

So in this hand utg Villain limps as he usually does. Several over limpers before gets to me in the button. I find pocket cowboys. I raise to twenty. I would make it 35 or more on some tables but this table generally folds too much for that. Only going to see AK and JJ+ callers at that price. And not likely to get any here after the limp fest.

Villain calls and two others. Around $80 in pot on the flop. Which is 9 high, two tone, and unconnected. I am very likely ahead here and going to stay that way.

Checks to me and I bet $40. Villain calls and others fold. Pot about $160 .

Turns a brick. Villain checks. There are 3 cards for a low straight now but, you would need to have some low 2 gapper to have it. Still only the original flush draw. Still feel pretty good with KK.

I decide to bet $75. I want villain to call and this seems like the most he would call for his probable A or K plus a pair. I am value targeting A9. I think he calls with draws and sets as well and folds all his double broadways that missed and that missed picking up flush draw here. I am pretty sure he folds all but two pair and better for $100 or more.

Villain calls, Pot is $310 heading to river.

River is Q of flush. Villain bets out one black chip. He has a few reds remaining, about $35.

So I called here but is that correct? Can we just figure 'they always have it' and make the hero fold. I have villain as a newish rec player. He's not bluffing much but still, 4 to 1 with over pair can folding be correct, ever?



Comments

  • BigFarmBigFarm MontrealRed Chipper Posts: 14 ✭✭
    Fold. Villain is repping a very strong range and you say he's a rec that doesn't bluff much. With no obvious missed draws on the board, consider it $100 made via exploitation.

    Easier said than done and I'd have a hard time myself laying it down.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭✭
    I see some bigger issues than your river decision here.
    Butch wrote: »
    Several over limpers before gets to me in the button. I find pocket cowboys. I raise to twenty. I would make it 35 or more on some tables but this table generally folds too much for that. Only going to see AK and JJ+ callers at that price. And not likely to get any here after the limp fest.

    Some flawed thinking here, IMO... If nothing else, bet to $35 and pick up $15 when everyone folds? How is that bad?


    Turns a brick. Villain checks. There are 3 cards for a low straight now but, you would need to have some low 2 gapper to have it. Still only the original flush draw. Still feel pretty good with KK.
    Butch wrote: »
    I decide to bet $75. I want villain to call and this seems like the most he would call for his probable A or K plus a pair. I am value targeting A9. I think he calls with draws and sets as well and folds all his double broadways that missed and that missed picking up flush draw here. I am pretty sure he folds all but two pair and better for $100 or more.

    Given what's left of stacks, are you sure that this is the right bet amount? And why would you want to create a cheap price for V to stay in to try to hit a draw if you really think that he has one?

    Butch wrote: »
    River is Q of flush. Villain bets out one black chip. He has a few reds remaining, about $35.

    So I called here but is that correct? Can we just figure 'they always have it' and make the hero fold. I have villain as a newish rec player. He's not bluffing much but still, 4 to 1 with over pair can folding be correct, ever?

    Is there a 1/4 chance that V puts youon a missed draw and is trying to steal? I'm really asking!
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,375 ✭✭✭✭
    So in this hand utg Villain limps as he usually does. Several over limpers before gets to me in the button. I find pocket cowboys. I raise to twenty.

    What do you usually open for 12? 15? Add $3 for each limper. If you had 76s would you make it $20 as well? Lets say there are 4 limpers here, I would size up to about $25.
    Villain calls and two others. Around $80 in pot on the flop. Which is 9 high, two tone, and unconnected. I am very likely ahead here and going to stay that way.

    973 and 933 are two different flops. Helps if you remember what suite you have and what cards and suites are on the board. The position of the limpers also helps.

    On the flop you bet half pot thats fine.
    Turn you bet about 45% which is ok as well.

    Here is the issue with the turn play.

    Lets say the board is

    Turn ($170) :9D: :3D: :5C: :7S:
    V ($210) checks
    Hero bets $75
    V calls

    River ($320) :QD:
    V ($135) v bets $100
    H calls

    Now the turn bet only makes sense if you can fold the river. If you can't fold when the draw hits then its best just to shove the turn. Notice a lot of hands that are flush draws that limp called a raise also have a pair + sd to go with them.

    Easy turn shove.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,282 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 22
    I see some bigger issues than your river decision here.
    Butch wrote: »
    Several over limpers before gets to me in the button. I find pocket cowboys. I raise to twenty. I would make it 35 or more on some tables but this table generally folds too much for that. Only going to see AK and JJ+ callers at that price. And not likely to get any here after the limp fest.

    Some flawed thinking here, IMO... If nothing else, bet to $35 and pick up $15 when everyone folds? How is that bad?

    Totally agree with @moishetreats .

    I'd add that after you attack limpers few times, they will start calling. But they will call light. Don't expect only JJ+/AK when a limper call. Many/all PP, SC, broadways, AX will start to call you, plus sometimes total junk from bored or frustrated limpers.
    Austin wrote: »
    Villain calls and two others. Around $80 in pot on the flop. Which is 9 high, two tone, and unconnected. I am very likely ahead here and going to stay that way.

    973 and 933 are two different flops. Helps if you remember what suite you have and what cards and suites are on the board. The position of the limpers also helps.
    What says @Austin here is important. Because low "disconnected" card can in fact open great equity for gapers or connector. Like on his proposed flop 953, 64 isn't in bad shape, and disconnected turn 7 gives it straight.

    So pay attention to the card and how the could improve - or not - Villain's range.
    Austin wrote: »
    Easy turn shove.
    Agree

    Eff stack size makes it almost mandatory. Many low stacks Villain have issues to deal with PSB and make a lot of mistakes (more than against an overbet IMHO). Great size to polarize a range and get great value.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 22
    If he knows everyone will fold for a price, he's found the price he needs. Why would he want folds? He might as well have K7, and not KK.

    Also, if villain has 135 on the river, he hid not start with 300, making this hand harder to read. This does underscore the need to jam turn.
  • ButchButch Red Chipper Posts: 157 ✭✭
    Thanks for all comments.

    He had about 300 to me over the table. He had very disorganized stack with a black, some green, mixed with reds. Looking back, now that its laid out clearly, and knowing for sure he had 35 left after betting out the 100 on the river, he started the hand at 270. I was around 30 short in eye balling. I should be better at that and I could have done math when posting the hand. Sorry guys.

    Nobody seems to buy my line of value targeting A9, K9. I don't think he check calls the turn with that if I go to more then $100. In this hand he has the flush draw and he might call a shove. Might not.

    It's almost letting him go easy to shove turn. So I don't. But I have not narrowed his range any. So I am guessing from his showdown hands and prior play at the river. He could have a lot of hands at this point. But of those hands I think I am only ahead of bluffs. And he doesn't seem to bluff much. I should fold to his river aggression.

    I am still not entirely sold on bigger pre-flop raise. I went lower then usual and flop went according to plan. I expected callers at $20 and maybe none at $40.

    I was getting clever here and it cost me. Maybe this whole idea of keeping villain's trash in for more streets is poison. I have been losing lately and trying things out.

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