Turning two pair into a bluff?

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
This was a hand I observed and found quite interesting. Where hero doesn't have blockers to a flush, the villain is also capped at two pair to set and doesn't have any flushes in his range.

9 handed 1-2-3 effective $300
Utg (tag) opens $12
4 callers

Flop ($60) :Ah :Ks :Jh
Bb :Kd :Jd checks
Utg bets $40
Mp calls
Bb calls
Turn ($180) :5c
Bb checks
Utg bets $100
Mp folds
Bb calls
River ($280) :7h
Bb all in $150
Villain ?

What hands do you call with if your villain?

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Anyone?

    Give us some time to read and respond lol
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    ...and doesn't have any flushes in his range.
    UTG has few flushes, but has some. :KH: :QH: , :KH: :TH: and :QH: :TH:
    Plus ev. :KH: :9H: , :TH: :9H: (and other loose openers like 98 or T8).

    Yes, UTG is betting a lot and against 3 players so we could think he doesn't hold these combos But if UTG is studied/good reg, he will have his c-betting range balanced. Here, these FD are great bluff for their nutted abilities to balance the range; better than low PP or MP combos.
    Austin wrote: »
    River ($280) :7h
    Bb all in $150
    Villain ?

    What hands do you call with if your villain?
    First of all there is 380 in the pot, not 280.

    So Hero need to call 150 to win 680; and have to win 23% of the time to be +EV. This is low, especially if BB is able to bluff.

    Also UTG betting 60% on flop and turn makes a naked FD impossible to call profitably, esp. OOP. So against ok regs and studied players, I'll also dismiss many of FD - so @Austin if Hero has few flushes, I think you can also dismiss many in BB's range.

    Problem is when turning KJ into a bluff, is that you block most of UTG value range aka blocking AJ, AK, plus and strongly JJ and KK. When this is the hands we shall target to find a fold.

    - UTG having few but nutted flushes, these will call.
    - QT for flopped straight will call
    - Best available sets, AA will never fold bc of top of UTG's range
    - KK/JJ very unlikely, but if UTG holds this unique combos, he may call with (best sets on board, and KK is with Kh blocking combo draws)
    - AK with :KH: will never fold bc blocks best combos draws; AK no :HEART: may call bc top 2P+great pot odds.
    - AJ is imho a call based on read and player profile (if Villain tend to aggro/bluff, AJ is more a call; if Villain is passive/station, we could fold explicatively AJ)
    - Semi-bluffs QQ, TT (?), AQ, and AT shall fold - but that's none relevant since KJ beat them.


    I think it's a terrible idea to bet for bluff with KJ. I think once on turn we have to decide either to check-call turn+river (letting UTG betting with QQ, AQ, AT, TT, etc), or to fold against what shall be a nutted range.
    Also KJ has SDV (and as said, blocks UTG's value range), so turning a hand into a bluff might be better with other combos like T9 with no SDV and not blocking our target.

    I'd expect UTG to call and win. Did he?
  • Fernando OFernando O Red Chipper Posts: 78 ✭✭
    The formation, board, line taken by UTG, and run-out aren't favorable to much of BB's range (UTG still has better two-pairs, sets, and the nuts).

    I don't know how UTG thinks with regards to betting KQhh, QThh on the turn - given the stacks and his high equity on a board that is his - but I think we can agree his line is more in sync with betting the turn to deny equity vs flush draws and piece of the board + who knows what junk BB calls with.

    Hands that are likely (minus a frequency discount based on how UTG views BB) to call BB's river shove: AxKh(3),AJ:XX(2),KJ:XX(1),AA(3),KK(1),JJ(1),KQ:hh,QT:hh. Total calling combos 13. We can also add a few other hh, such as T9, 98, that decided to take a bet-bet line, and call the river.

    F
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I will say low stakes games if BB had like Th8h he is likely not folding the turn and will jam the river. A lot of smaller flush draws 87s will fold though. Some times low stakes player never fold here.

    Anyways as played BB shoved and UTG snap called AK. Didn't even think about it.

    Good break down @Red

    It really sucks to be getting a great price but vs low stake players they are almost never bluffing here or betting worse than a flush.

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