Flop Nut straight, get a bad turn and river + turn my hand into a bluff?

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
Villain in the hand plays like a tag player. Have a little bit of history with him where I raised JJ over 1 limper to $15 three ways to the flop. Jc6s2s, he bets out $25 I call & other guy calls, turn ($120) Jc6s2sTc and he jams $182 and I obviously call other guy folds, river Kh and he turns over Qs9s for a straight.

7 handed.
Co Hero :Ac :Th opens $10
BTN folds
SB calls $10
BB calls $10
Flop ($31) :Kc :Qc :Jh
SB bets $20
BB calls $20
Hero calls $20
Turn ($91) :AS:
SB bets $50
BB folds
Hero calls $50
River ($191) :7C:
SB ($320) bets $100
Hero all in (covers).

Here I think SB could have some :Tc : :8c type hands, but also just a naked Tx most of the time.

Given I have more flushes in my range here and SB can only have a couple, since I do not think he leads with hands like :5c :4c and only combo draws or made hands. I eliminated two pair from his range as soon as he bets the turn.

Is it better to shove here or call? Villain getting 3:1 on the river $220 to win $611, so as long I have a flush here 25% or more of the time I think this is a good play, but also higher variance.

Comments

  • Jmo925Jmo925 Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    Bro no flush is ever going to fold here, i know you have the nut blocker but the stacks aren't deep enough to get a fold here, also the players at 1/2- 2/5 Aren't good enough to lay this down. No point in turning such a strong hand into a bluff. A straight might fold but its doubtful it would lead out, only hands leading out are flushes and bluffs(sets, 2 pair that didn't fill up). I would never raise in this spot cause you can beat the bluffs and the flush is literally never folding. This raise would be a huge leak.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    villain called Td9d for a chop after tanking for 3 min.
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 455 ✭✭✭
    I like your reasoning on the river but hate your flop and turn line. You flopped the nuts and have two players bet into you. Raise!!!! They obviously want to put money in the pot so help them do so. Turn again player bets into you and you just call..Raise!!!! Set up for easy all in on river. Bet 1/3 his stack or a little less down to 1/4
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Travis wrote: »
    I like your reasoning on the river but hate your flop and turn line. You flopped the nuts and have two players bet into you. Raise!!!! They obviously want to put money in the pot so help them do so. Turn again player bets into you and you just call..Raise!!!! Set up for easy all in on river. Bet 1/3 his stack or a little less down to 1/4

    I agree, wanted to try and keep the middle player in as well, so if SB is leading he is doing the work for me, but I should be setting up stacks. On the turn I was worried about getting free rolled against TcxC so just flat called, keeps two pairs that are bluffing.

    Most of the time i agree 95% of the time the flop I should be raising 60-80 here. I wanna go slightly small like 65-70 to price them in being 3 way, pot will be easily bloated.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2018
    Reasoning on the river is imho wrong.

    You played you hand soooooooooooo passively! Why ?!

    All of these speak for a flop or at least turn raise:
    • You've some history with Villain betting into you aggressively (=he likes action)
    • Villain is capped to 2P max IMHO (no set) or a lucky straight AT/T9.
    • Hero has range advantage and polarized advantage (or at least no polarized disavantage)
    • This board is rather static as only :CLUB: will change the winning hand.
    • ... and you have bckd nut FD
    • SPR is big, almost 10 on flop.
    • BB calling looks like a marginal hand or a draw. We don't want to be outdrawn (too cheap) AND he may feel priced in as he will act last after an eventual BU raise.

    I've the feeling that you wanted to call to let bet him into your nuts. But you missed great opportunity to raise and play easily for stacks in your advantage.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Reasoning on the river is imho wrong.

    You played you hand soooooooooooo passively! Why ?!

    All of these speak for a flop or at least turn raise:
    • You've some history with Villain betting into you aggressively (=he likes action)
    • Villain is capped to 2P max IMHO (no set) or a lucky straight AT/T9.
    • Hero has range advantage and polarized advantage (or at least no polarized disavantage)
    • This board is rather static as only :CLUB: will change the winning hand.
    • ... and you have bckd nut FD
    • SPR is big, almost 10 on flop.
    • BB calling looks like a marginal hand or a draw. We don't want to be outdrawn (too cheap) AND he may feel priced in as he will act last after an eventual BU raise.

    I've the feeling that you wanted to call to let bet him into your nuts. But you missed great opportunity to raise and play easily for stacks in your advantage.

    Sb betting into me is just saying he has a combo draw or at worse KT+. Seems like a reasonable player who just comes out and bets when he has it pretty straight forward.

    There was a similar hand on Bart's call in show flop (120) KdQsJd check x2 turn brick co bets into btn and btn calls. Turn 7d goes bet 100 into 270 and guy jammed for around 350 or something with AdQc.

    Bart thought it was not the best jam because flop gets checked through and most of villains range is Kx or some type of two pair like QJ.

    Looking at my line though of call call shove. I can have quite a few flushes here. I don't hate my play by any means. Im a vacuum the flop is most certainly a raise. Just gotta make sure i have a flush when I jam here next time and not just click it back..go for max value each time.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Red wrote: »
    Reasoning on the river is imho wrong.

    You played you hand soooooooooooo passively! Why ?!

    All of these speak for a flop or at least turn raise:
    • You've some history with Villain betting into you aggressively (=he likes action)
    • Villain is capped to 2P max IMHO (no set) or a lucky straight AT/T9.
    • Hero has range advantage and polarized advantage (or at least no polarized disavantage)
    • This board is rather static as only :CLUB: will change the winning hand.
    • ... and you have bckd nut FD
    • SPR is big, almost 10 on flop.
    • BB calling looks like a marginal hand or a draw. We don't want to be outdrawn (too cheap) AND he may feel priced in as he will act last after an eventual BU raise.

    I've the feeling that you wanted to call to let bet him into your nuts. But you missed great opportunity to raise and play easily for stacks in your advantage.

    Sb betting into me is just saying he has a combo draw or at worse KT+.

    Such hands won't fold

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