River Donk Bet

RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 301 ✭✭✭
edited May 2018 in Live Poker Hands
1/3. $600 effective.

Villain is a fairly standard early 50's reg. Limps and flats a bit too much preflop, then plays relatively straightforward post. Probably around break-even. I've been winning a lot of pots without showdown at the mostly passive table, and in the last half hour or so it seems he's made a point of playing back at me. This has come in the form of him 4-betting after I 3-bet his btton raise from small blind, him limp-reraising me from HJ in a straddled pot then jamming for 2x pot on the flop, and just otherwise calling a ton of my preflop raises.

On to the hand.

Hero raises to 15 UTG with KQo.
Folds to villain, who calls.

Flop (25) Q65 rainbow.
V checks, hero bets 15. V calls.

Turn (55) 7d - two diamonds on the board.
Hero bets 45. V calls.

River (145) 3x
V casually flicks one black chip into the pot.


I think this is an interesting spot. I would expect him to raise his made straights and sets on the turn, and have trouble putting him on many 4s that make it to the river. At the same time, it's such a weird spot for him to donk bluff and the sizing just feels so valuey. KQ feels like it's right on the line between a call and a fold, leaning towards fold.

What do you guys think?

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    3 combos of 54s, 3 combos of random floats with 44. I have a hard time finding other 4s in his range.

    I'm leaning towards a call, but in general this is usually not a bluff. 3 combos of 87s that missed. Have a hard time finding a lot of bluffs here as well.

    He reps almost nothing of value or bluffs lol. Maybe I'm not thinking straight.

    Usually I give the 1 chip credit for strength.

    Folding here would be over folding as you only need to be right like 30%. Best 30% of your hands that get to the river and call it off.

    Let's say you play
    AQ (12)
    KQ (12)
    QJs (3)
    AA (6)
    Kk (6)
    QQ (3)
    77(3)
    66(3)
    55(3)
    98s (4)


    55 value combos and you have to call 17 combos to not over fold in this spot.

    Your sets and straight = 16 so I guess KQ can be a fold here. Then call AA and KK as well. Surprisingly don't need to call AQ here either.

    Idk your opening range from UTG but these hands would be in mine depending on the dynamics. I usually open $12 but use 98s as the bottom of my range in soft games and J10s as a standard.

    Correct me if my math is off here.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 301 ✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Let's say you play
    AQ (12)
    KQ (12)
    QJs (3)
    AA (6)
    Kk (6)
    QQ (3)
    77(3)
    66(3)
    55(3)
    98s (4)

    I would add
    88 (6)
    87s (3)
    AKdd (1)
    AJdd (1)
    ATdd (1)
    KJdd (1)
    JTdd (1)
    T9dd (1)

    So that pushes total combos to 70.
    Austin wrote: »
    Folding here would be over folding as you only need to be right like 30%. Best 30% of your hands that get to the river and call it off.

    I'm not sure that's correct. 30% would be a function of HIS range, not mine. So, if KQ is better than 30% of his range, I should call.

    Since we end up a bit clueless as to how often he bluffs the end, theoretically it's probably best to fall back on a default of calling top 60% of my range to prevent overfolding to his 2/3 pot bet. So, 42 combos... which still puts KQ right on the borderline. Heh.

    In practice though, I do think this is going to be value more often than not and borderline hands like this can just hit the muck.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    1. I'm confused by the positioning as you described the hand. Where is V sitting? He seems to be leading the action on some cards and following on others... Position would impact my thoughts.

    2. Fold pre-flop.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 301 ✭✭✭
    1. I'm confused by the positioning as you described the hand. Where is V sitting? He seems to be leading the action on some cards and following on others... Position would impact my thoughts.

    2. Fold pre-flop.

    Sorry, villain was BB.

    As i mentioned the table was super passive and fit or fold. On a table like that, I'm opening KQo utg.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @Robert Seeley your calling $100 to win $245, so have to be good here 29% of the time. This is probably one of my weaknesses, but doesn't that translate to you have to call 29% of your range to break even?

    This is one of the things I'm starting to work on, given the math and number of hands I arrive at on the river.

    Where are you getting 60%?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    Roblivion wrote: »
    1. I'm confused by the positioning as you described the hand. Where is V sitting? He seems to be leading the action on some cards and following on others... Position would impact my thoughts.

    Sorry, villain was BB.

    Villain on BB has a lot of small SC and gapers. So his value range is a lot of 2P (76, plus floated 65, 75) and straight (esp. 89).

    Villain calling 45 on turn when the pot is 55 (=calling a big bet) seems to me a good-to-strong made hand on turn.

    On the other side, I don't think 45 into 55 is the right play on this strongly connected flop (Q76-5 with 2 :DIAMOND: ) which is more in favor of BB's range than on UTG's range. 45 seems rather an exploited bet sizing against rather a station to me - and Villains isn't described so.

    (But I might be biased here since my UTG range QX combos on a passive table has AQ, KQ, QJ , QTs; more TP combos for me = wider range to bet = smaller bet sizing)
    2. Fold pre-flop.
    Fold KQo preflop ?? NIT !
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 301 ✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    @Robert Seeley your calling $100 to win $245, so have to be good here 29% of the time. This is probably one of my weaknesses, but doesn't that translate to you have to call 29% of your range to break even?

    This is one of the things I'm starting to work on, given the math and number of hands I arrive at on the river.

    Where are you getting 60%?

    I'm also still working on this sort of thing, but here is my understanding.

    Yes, if my hand is good 30% of the time, a call is profitable. So, if I know V's $100 donk range consists of at least 30% bluffs, I can profitably call with any hand that beats his bluffs - not just 30% of my range. So, this is a hand vs. range calculation.

    I believe 60% to be the MDF required on the river. He bets 2/3 of the pot, effectively offering himself 3/2 odds on a bluff, so needs it to succeed at least 40% of the time to be profitable. So, a 60% calling frequency is needed.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 301 ✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Villain on BB has a lot of small SC and gapers. So his value range is a lot of 2P (76, plus floated 65, 75) and straight (esp. 89).

    Villain calling 45 on turn when the pot is 55 (=calling a big bet) seems to me a good-to-strong made hand on turn.

    On the other side, I don't think 45 into 55 is the right play on this strongly connected flop (Q76-5 with 2 :DIAMOND: ) which is more in favor of BB's range than on UTG's range. 45 seems rather an exploited bet sizing against rather a station to me - and Villains isn't described so.

    (But I might be biased here since my UTG range QX combos on a passive table has AQ, KQ, QJ , QTs; more TP combos for me = wider range to bet = smaller bet sizing)

    In general, I would agree with you, but I think in this spot V has a lot of speculative hands that he may call a large bet with on the turn, but not the river. Due to the dynamic developing between us, I think he has like Q8o+, 88, 99, 87s, etc. Yes, he will also have sets, straights, and two pairs, but I don't think that makes a ton of his range, and I think he will almost always checkraise those hands on the turn, letting me get away from my hand.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 777 ✭✭✭
    Villain seems to have gone from believing you always have it to you never have it.

    Now looks like a pretty good spot to bluff catch him and see what kind of hands he is pulling this shit with :)
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 301 ✭✭✭
    Hero called. Villain turned over 44.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file