Flop spot with tons to consider

foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
Ran into this spot playing live $1/3 and even though there's only one notable spot in the hand, I really found it interesting as it combined pot odds, implied odds, equity realization and awareness in a multiway pot.

The game is playing extremely passively. V1 (UTG2) is quiet and passive, seen him go with some marginal hands when shorter but never aggressively. V2 (CO) is the most TAG player at the tables, however he still has a passive streak and most of his aggression seems to be when barreling, especially IP against weaker players. I haven't seen a ton of complex bluffs postflop besides some river stabs with standard sizing.

SB posts $1
BB posts $3
UTG calls
Hero ($1100): :KC: :QH: raises to $15
V1 ($230) calls $15
MP1 folds
MP2 calls $15
HJ folds
V2 ($675) calls $15
BTN folds
SB folds
BB calls $12
UTG calls $14

This open is pretty low in my range from this spot but no one was 3-betting basically ever so I was opening pretty recklessly.

Flop ($70): :JC: :TC: :4D:
Torn on the correct flop action but let's ignore it for now. I bet $30, V1 calls, fold, V2 raises to $140 and it folds back to me.

When he raises here I think it's nutted a ton, I think he would probably just peel in a multiway pot getting a good price with most of his flush draws. I'm thinking something like JJ, TT, 44, almost all JT, a couple combos of AJ, 1 or 2 Axcc and his strongest combo draws so maybe Q9cc and/or 98cc.

I don't love a raise because his range is so strong here that I don't think the FE is there and I'm in bad shape whenever I'm called. But is it a call? I'm getting better than 2:1 against that range so I'm getting the right immediate odds.

BUT I'm not going to realize my equity a good portion of the time, being OOP and being forced to check fold a bunch of turns.

BUT since V2's range is so strong when my draws get there my implied odds are pretty good.

BUT V1 is going to call some of the time giving me better than 3:1.

I ran the math a few ways trying to balance these competing concerns but I'm interested in what everyone thinks about this complex spot. Is a call +ev?

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2018
    First of all, great observation. You give a ton of info for us to break this hand down. This is good for us, but this also show that you pay attention to the game and details. Good!

    Now, I think you're good on your analysis. I also think that a boring TAG raising here is a pretty strong hand. I see very often bad TAG (but not only) tend to raise with ok-to-very-strong made hand to avoid to be outdrawn (often by FD).
    So I agree about V2 having 44, TT, JJ maybe not all (some 3bet preflop?), JT. But would he raise with AJ ?

    Based on the range we/you assign:

    Equity:
    HU, I think you've 31-38% equity (mostly depending on if V2 has AJ/TP or not).

    MW (V1 calling with AJ, QJ, 98 and some weak FD), you've 28-34% equity (mostly depending on if V2 has AJ/TP or not).

    Pot odds
    HU : 110/380 = 28.94%
    MW: 110/ 490 = 22.45%

    Calling... ?

    Based solely on equity and pot odds, it's ok to call. Especially if Villain is able to raise with AJ (better equity).

    But if he raises with value, you can be sure he is going to fire again if one of the obvious draw card doesn't show up (A, Q, 9, 7, and :CLUB: ).

    So if you want to take this +EV (not the biggest +EV, but still +EV) road, then you have to call the turn bet as well.

    Personally, I'm "meh" in this spot.
    - We don't know if V1 is coming along, and if yes, with what.
    - Also V1 can't really call. For him the leverage point is already here. Which means he could fold... or shove.
    - We also can't be sure that V2 isn't raising with a strong combo draw, which includes very often FD. Between him and V1, not sure our :CLUB: outs are clean...
    - Also if we think that V2 would be able to raise with TP AJ, what do we do with turn K or Q ? He are kinda force to make a necessary ugly call as we still face many 2P/sets.

    HU or IP we could (have to?) go for it. But this situation seems to me a recipe to stack disaster. I'd make a somehow nit fold here and wait for a better spot.

    Nonetheless, I kinda feel it's a mistake to fold. So I'm waiting for contra-arguments :)


    Edit: on the other hand, if V2 is a lot on value hand, we can bluff him when turn or river complete an obvious draw he was fighting against.
  • PapaGiorgioPapaGiorgio Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    Multiway, or the potential for multiway, on the turn makes me lean more toward folding. If you call, then V1 might be enticed to call with weaker flusn draws. His call takes away quite a bit of fold equity when the 3rd club hits and you lead turn. I would rather fold and wait for a better opportunity.
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 455 ✭✭✭
    With an ambitious best case of 14outs but only 6 clean outs that may have small implied odds, a player to act behind, and a reraised Cbet.. Even if I hit a clean out on the turn I still have to dodge the board pairing or the flush hitting...I am folding.
  • foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    Curious why you think that we have to dodge all clubs and board pairing (implying V has lots of nut draws and sets) but also think our straights have low implied odds -- seems like a contradiction.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hero ($1100): :KC: :QH: raises to $15
    V1 ($230) calls $15
    MP1 folds
    MP2 calls $15
    HJ folds
    V2 ($675) calls $15
    BTN folds
    SB folds
    BB calls $12
    UTG calls $14

    Flop ($70): :JC: :TC: :4D:

    POT seems a bit off. I think it should be ($91) being 6 ways + SB.

    I think betting $30 (1/3) is still fine though. I'm either going $20-$30 here or checking being 6 ways and hoping to realize my equity. I think this board has very little fold equity and as stated above we basically only have 6 clean outs against a FD such as :AC: :QC: or set.
    Pot odds
    HU : 110/380 = 28.94%
    MW: 110/ 490 = 22.45%

    @Red were these odds to see both cards or just 1 card? Seems a bit high if we are folding the turn when we miss.

    I think v1 is likely to fold give the passive play, but if he decides to continue it will likely just be a shove. The good news is that V2 raised $110 more and if V1 shoves, then he is only raising $90 on top, so it does not reopen the action.

    Lets look at the odds
    $91 (POT) + ($30) Cbet + ($30) call + ($140) raise

    $110 to win $291 = 2.64 : 1 (27.7%)

    Given the math I think it's just a clear fold given we are going to have to fold a lot of turns.

    Now there are some advance stuff here as well, where if you miss your straight, but a club hits the turn will villain continue with a set? Stacks are rather deep, so let's say you call here and V1 folds.

    Turn ($401) :JC: :TC: :4D: :3C:
    Effective stacks: $520 after calling $15 preflop and $140 on the flop.

    If Villain checks here what is your play? Can we bluff some turn flush cards?

    What I find also interesting is if we have a hand like :AC: :QC: ourselves, I do not think this is a 3 bet spot because we are likely against a set. Shoving is probably close to break even maybe slightly +EV, but probably more optimal to call and try and realize our equity given the pot odds of almost 3:1.
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 455 ✭✭✭
    The straights have low implied odds because you are calling 110 into a 200 dollar pot. You need 6:1 to break even plus money you already have in the pot on previous streets. Otherwise it is -ev. If the straight comes do you really think Villian will put another 555 in the pot on the river? That's just to break even on the call. I don't know about you, but I don't play poker to break even. Villian doesn't have enough in his stack to call for just the straight.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    @Austin To work MW with ease, I used equilab. So equity is on both card.

    And I agree with you: a lot of runnouts are bad (for Hero) and hero continuing the action is "meh".

    Also I don't think that given the action, V is going to fold on turn. I see little to no opportunity to bluff
  • foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    POT seems a bit off. I think it should be ($91) being 6 ways + SB.

    Yeah I messed that up, was definitely 5 ways, I think UTG folded.
    Given the math I think it's just a clear fold given we are going to have to fold a lot of turns.

    This is where I think it gets really complex. We're clearly not getting the right immediate odds if we're only ever going to continue on an A or 9. However what are our implied odds? I think we have 7-8 outs to get stacks, with the Ac being almost a full out IMO and the 9c being only slightly discounted.
    Now there are some advance stuff here as well, where if you miss your straight, but a club hits the turn will villain continue with a set? Stacks are rather deep, so let's say you call here and V1 folds.

    Turn ($401) :JC: :TC: :4D: :3C:
    Effective stacks: $520 after calling $15 preflop and $140 on the flop.

    If Villain checks here what is your play? Can we bluff some turn flush cards?

    We are OOP so we'll be leading here. My plan if I called was to shove every A, 9 and Q, and I got kind of lost on what to do with clubs. I think a club is a better card for our range than for Vs range, but I'm not sure how many folds we're getting. Maybe we can get some folds on a really scary club like the Q, 8 or 7, but definitely not the majority of the time and occasionally we'll be drawing dead.

  • foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    Travis wrote: »
    The straights have low implied odds because you are calling 110 into a 200 dollar pot. You need 6:1 to break even plus money you already have in the pot on previous streets. Otherwise it is -ev.

    I'm not following any of this. First of all I need to call $110 and the pot is $270, laying 2.5:1. The odds to turn a straight is 4.5:1. The odds of making a straight by the river is 2:1. No idea where 6:1 is coming from and nothing you said or what I said has anything to do w. implied odds.
    If the straight comes do you really think Villian will put another 555 in the pot on the river?

    Uhh, yes? I don't think anyone in the world is folding a set when an offsuit ace falls.

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    foxxxer wrote: »
    Travis wrote: »
    The straights have low implied odds because you are calling 110 into a 200 dollar pot. You need 6:1 to break even plus money you already have in the pot on previous streets. Otherwise it is -ev.

    I'm not following any of this. First of all I need to call $110 and the pot is $270, laying 2.5:1. The odds to turn a straight is 4.5:1. The odds of making a straight by the river is 2:1. No idea where 6:1 is coming from and nothing you said or what I said has anything to do w. implied odds.
    If the straight comes do you really think Villian will put another 555 in the pot on the river?

    Uhh, yes? I don't think anyone in the world is folding a set when an offsuit ace falls.

    The 6:1 is based on 6 clean outs. If your playing to make a hand. The 4.5 :1 is based on 8 clean outs.
  • foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    edited May 2018
    I figured that's what he probably meant. In my mind 6 clean outs is the absolute worst case and with Vs stack we're calling $110 to win $790. Even with a small chance V folds top two pair on an offsuit 9 for some reason I think we have the implied odds to call here.

    Maybe the best way is to come up with a simplistic model is to break it down in terms of ev when we continue on the turn and when we don't.

    Let's say we're continuing on 4 As, 3 Ks, 3 Qs, 4 9s, 8c, 7c, this is 16 cards or 36% of the time. We'll jam some of these for value and some as a bluff.

    We'll check-fold everything else. This is 29 cards or 64% of the time.

    Between redraws and better club draws let's say we win 7/8 of the As and 9s. On the other 8 cards I'm just going to randomly guess that between semi-bluffs that get there, a small amount of folds, losing to better flushes and bricking out we win 2/8. This is really back of the envelope so we can tweak it but I think it's in the ballpark.

    This gives us:
    ev on blank turns = (.64) * (-110) = -$70
    ev on other turns = (.36) * [ (9/16) * $790 + (7/16) * -$630 ] = $61

    This gives us an ev of -$9.

    Is my math right here?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Looks pretty good. I wouldn't always continue on Q or K because now your just putting your money in with the same outs and two pair probably isn't good, same for 8 or 7 if you don't think V can fold two pair or set I think it's a bit suicidal to continue on all those turns. If he jams you will have little undet 2:1 and forced to fold.

    Marginal call at best.
  • foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    Agreed looks like a close fold. I just thought it was worth some consideration as balancing all of these concepts in real time had me locked up.
  • foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    As a funny coda the hand played out pretty wildly.

    I called, V1 tank shoved, we both call. Turn is the amazing :AD:. I think for a while and jam, he snaps with JJ. V1 has :7C: :4C: for a flopped pair + FD.

    We run it twice for the main pot and three times for the side pot. First board comes :TS:, second comes :6C:, third comes :9S: so I get none of the main and 2/3 of the side pot.

    Ended up losing $100 on the hand. Guess that's what I get.

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