What does it look like the hero has? What can villain call with?

Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 294 ✭✭✭
2/5 game, V1 has 700, V2 has 500, hero covers. Both Vs are on the tight passive side.

H raised from the HJ to $25 after V2 limps, V1 calls from BB, V2 calls.

Flop ($75) is :Jh :5s :2h , check, check, H bets $50, both V calls.

Turn ($225) :Qs , checked around.

River ($225) :Th , V1 bets $75, V2 folds, H raises to $300

What do you call off with if you are the V? And why?

Comments

  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 455 ✭✭✭
    To me I would put Hero on J10, AK, flush, or air at the river. AJ bets the turn, AQ bets the turn, sets and 2pr bet the turn. Most nut flush draws bet the turn especially with a gutshot too.
    Villian AK that floated flop, flush, QJ, J10, 1010, rarely JJ and QQ.
    As Villian I call the river raise with all flushes, sets, and 2pr. Hero has a lot of air and mid strength hands at the river. The bet size seems large for a value bet other than from nut flush.
    A lot of my answers depend on table image of both players, table Dynamics, and history between V and Hero... All of which can affect my answer
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2018
    lalalalala
    (mistakenly posted, please erase)
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The turn card seems like a missed bet given your against a likely EP limper and BB caller. You are raising from the HJ, so you should have a lot of 98s+, Broadways, PP, Axs, J9s+, Q9s+, etc.

    BB doesn't have a ton of flushes, some Axs, some KhQh, but most of his range will likely be two pair type hands JT, QJ, QT, etc.

    Maybe my math is off here, but another post I made regarding a 3 bet pot I risked basically the amount that was in the pot, but not a PSB and needed 50% folds. Here your basically doing the same with $225 in the pot and a $75 lead out. If your bluffing I don't think you get the 50% folds you need here. If its for value I think raising hands like AK, K9s, 98s, sets, and flushes the 4x sizing has good value.

    I think villain can still call pretty wide. If he has a hand like :AH: :QC: that floated the flop, being that he blocks the nut flush he may call. Most other two pair hands or Qx hands that you end up with I would likely just flat and fold the weaker holdings. I think it's unlikely villain is betting worse than Qx on this river.
  • Naïm TerracheNaïm Terrache Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    Flop ($75) is :JH: :5S :2H: , check, check, H bets $50, both V calls.

    Turn ($225) : Qs , checked around.

    River ($225) :Th , V1 bets $75, V2 folds, H raises to $300

    Hi @Yanming Z

    If I'm Villain I'm calling you with Two Pair+, Sets, Nut FLush and Second Nut FLushes.

    According to his line and image, here's my assumption for his ranges on every street :

    - Range of Call Preflop : JJ-22,ATs+,KQs,ATo+,KQo (10.4%)

    - Range of Check/Call Flop : We can assume he will only reasonably continue only with Top pair, Two pairs, Sets, Nut FD. According to this his range get reduced to JJ,55,22,ATs+,KQs,AJo (3.8%)

    - Range of Check Turn : According to Flopzilla, Villain has a set 36% of the time here (JJ-55-22) but would he check that turn? There's a lot of draws here and it could be dangerous to check, even if the player is passive. I think we can take away sets from his range. He could check also with FD. His possible range so far : ATs+,KQs,AJo

    - Range to Bet River : for a small bet like this, it can either be a flush who wants to value, or a scared set. By Flopzilla, 12.5% of the time this is a flush, and 37.5% of the time it's a set. Reduced to combos there is only 3 combos of FD who can reasonably get there : AKs, AQs and KQs. There is also 9 Combos of Sets : JJ-55-22.

    The most probable hand we're against is a set, 75% of the time, or a flush 25% of the time. If you think this player could check the turn with a set, then put him on the most probable holdings that your deduction does.

    I like to get feedback on my analisis, so please don't hesitate to contradict my opinion as I'm open to learning also.

    PS : let me know his hand if you can!

    Best,
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Flop ($75) is :JH: :5S :2H: , check, check, H bets $50, both V calls.

    Turn ($225) : Qs , checked around.

    River ($225) :Th , V1 bets $75, V2 folds, H raises to $300

    Hi @Yanming Z

    If I'm Villain I'm calling you with Two Pair+, Sets, Nut FLush and Second Nut FLushes.

    According to his line and image, here's my assumption for his ranges on every street :

    - Range of Call Preflop : JJ-22,ATs+,KQs,ATo+,KQo (10.4%)

    - Range of Check/Call Flop : We can assume he will only reasonably continue only with Top pair, Two pairs, Sets, Nut FD. According to this his range get reduced to JJ,55,22,ATs+,KQs,AJo (3.8%)

    - Range of Check Turn : According to Flopzilla, Villain has a set 36% of the time here (JJ-55-22) but would he check that turn? There's a lot of draws here and it could be dangerous to check, even if the player is passive. I think we can take away sets from his range. He could check also with FD. His possible range so far : ATs+,KQs,AJo

    - Range to Bet River : for a small bet like this, it can either be a flush who wants to value, or a scared set. By Flopzilla, 12.5% of the time this is a flush, and 37.5% of the time it's a set. Reduced to combos there is only 3 combos of FD who can reasonably get there : AKs, AQs and KQs. There is also 9 Combos of Sets : JJ-55-22.

    The most probable hand we're against is a set, 75% of the time, or a flush 25% of the time. If you think this player could check the turn with a set, then put him on the most probable holdings that your deduction does.

    I like to get feedback on my analisis, so please don't hesitate to contradict my opinion as I'm open to learning also.

    PS : let me know his hand if you can!

    Best,

    You don't give him any SCs? Have to give BB a wider preflop range. Live games don't play just 10% of hands.
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 294 ✭✭✭
    H had :9c :9h , V1 insta mucked.

    H made the move because the bet sizing on the river didn't indicate strength. It looked like a blocking bet from Jx, or just a random non sense bluff which you see all the time in live poker. H wondered if V1 had a stronger hand such as QJ or JT (which he may actually have and folded), would this still be a profitable play?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    H had :9c :9h , V1 insta mucked.

    H made the move because the bet sizing on the river didn't indicate strength. It looked like a blocking bet from Jx, or just a random non sense bluff which you see all the time in live poker. H wondered if V1 had a stronger hand such as QJ or JT (which he may actually have and folded), would this still be a profitable play?

    I would be very careful with this logic. A strong made hand does not always mean they should bet big. If I had a flush in his spot or two pair I'm betting 1\3 as well because not much strength has been shown.

    Not the best hand to turn into a bluff without many blockers.

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