Running like crap and it gets worse

ChipTraderChipTrader Red Chipper Posts: 178
edited June 2015 in Live Poker Hands
So I have been having crazy swings lately Up $2000 down $2000 up $2000 down $2000 Ive done this almost constantly in the last 6 sessions back and forth and its driving me nuts so I'm going to post 3 big hands here that I played tonight to see if it ME or just variance.?

$2/5 $500 max buy in

Hero on the BTN $750 stack :Qc :Qd
EP1 limp Stack size $500
EP2 limp Stack $375
CO limp $500

Hero bets $40
EP1 folds
EP2 Shoves all in $375
CO folds

Hero Calls

Villain shows up with :Ad :6d

Turns a flush

Comments "I had a feeling"

Hero Shrugs it off and makes a joke about it no tilt yet. I'm actually thinking how great this table is.

2.5 hours later Hero builds stacks to $1500 after a few rebuys so in for $2000 again.

Hero :Ac :Kd BTN
limp
limp
limp

Hero Raises to $40

One caller for the CO with $1500

Flop
:9s :9h :8s

CO bets $300

Now some history, I moved to get position on this guy because he had made this exact same move at least 5 times in the night and when folded to showed middle pair or occasionally top pair weak kicker.

So I tank and think theres no way this guy is protecting any hand here like an X :8 and theres now way hes protecting any 9X hand either this guy was just nuts and was pulling these huge overbet bluffs and so I shove him all in for $1200 more. He SNAP calls and I mean SNAP so I think I'm toast

Turn :7d

River :8h

Villain Shows :Ac :Jh

For the chop.

Hero is stunned but happy my read was correct.


Next hand almost exactly 10 hands later

Hero BTN :As :7s
Limp
Limp
Same Villain Limp

Hero $40 bet
fold
fold

Same Villain in the CO calls

Flop

:Js :9s :6d

Villain bets the same crazy bet $300

Hero Shoves again this time with more equity flush draw and gut shot

Villain Snap calls again

This time I/m actually pretty happy to get it in here

Turn :3h

River :2d

Villain Shows :5d :5h

Hero leaves table dejected and exhausted for 6 sessions of crazy swings for exactly $2000 each time.

Me or Variance ???

Comments

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,095 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Looks normal enough. Sometimes you just lose, no matter what.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,749 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hand 1 is fine. Hand 2 - I avoid. There's just no reason to play with fire here - villain is a bad player - just wait for a better opportunity. Hand 3 is probably fine, but you are inviting variance with this play. EV is probably good but if you hate variance, you don't seem to be playing in a style to avoid it :) i.e. play more small ball and wait for big hands for big pots. Or maybe I misunderstood you and you are OK with the variance, you just want to know if it is variance.
  • tagliustaglius Red Chipper Posts: 290 ✭✭
    you realize you got your money in as a favorite in all 3 hands, correct?

    if so, I'm not sure what your question is.

    Keep doing that, you will win in the long run. (The long run can be very long, however).
  • hyPOTcrisyhyPOTcrisy Red Chipper Posts: 260
    You just described the last 20 years for me at the poker tables.
    I'm going with variance.

    But good god when will the 'upside' of variance come?
    It seems to me, I play a solid game for hours building a smallish profit and lose it all to the guy who just doubled up his bankroll on one hand of blackjack and decided to parlay it on one more hand of poker. The money goes in good, often with a 75% edge AK vs AQ for example and poof Q on the river and your hours of profit are gone.

    Then you go back to your computer, login to Red Chip, and everyone says "variance" you'll win in the long run. When's my freaking run going to be long enough to show a profit?
  • ChipTraderChipTrader Red Chipper Posts: 178
    hyPOTcrisy wrote:
    You just described the last 20 years for me at the poker tables.
    I'm going with variance.

    But good god when will the 'upside' of variance come?
    It seems to me, I play a solid game for hours building a smallish profit and lose it all to the guy who just doubled up his bankroll on one hand of blackjack and decided to parlay it on one more hand of poker. The money goes in good, often with a 75% edge AK vs AQ for example and poof Q on the river and your hours of profit are gone.

    Then you go back to your computer, login to Red Chip, and everyone says "variance" you'll win in the long run. When's my freaking run going to be long enough to show a profit?



    Funny you mentioned this because on Saturday and Sunday I made 14 buy ins back for still a weaker month but profitable. :)
  • billconklinbillconklin Red Chipper Posts: 102 ✭✭
    There's a very helpful book you might like to read:

    The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler.
    It was way more than the usual pap, and presents very useful ideas of dealing with many of the difficult problems we all face, including Variance. Included are examples and quotes by known Pro's, citing the problems they had and how they were helped.

    Personally, I have found it very helpful. Maybe you would too.
    BC
  • hyPOTcrisyhyPOTcrisy Red Chipper Posts: 260
    Funny you mentioned this because on Saturday and Sunday I made 14 buy ins back for still a weaker month but profitable. :)[/quote]

    Played AA on a :Ad :Kd :2d flop with :Tc turn. Villain shoves turn, I folded and started sulking but feeling like I might finally be able to get away from "those" hands. So felt "okay" about it.

    About 30 minutes later, different table ( online micro .05/.10 ) had 77 crack AA for a $28 pot. I don't feel like I win my mathematical share of those 5 way preflop monster pots where someone shoves on the flop and all 5 call. But I got this one!

    Conrats on your comeback swing as well!

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