Plan foiled on the river

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
Effective stacks little over 300 (mine)
V1 co loose aggo player. Pretty good lag I would say, but probably calls too much post and preflop. Gives a lot of action but also knows his image and how to value bet pretty well.
V2 in BB recreational player. Pretty straight forward and likes to bet around pot when he hits and calls with draws. Maybe 30% hand range even when calling preflop. 1 gappers, Axs, SCs, JJ-22, all broadways etc.

8 handed at the time I believe. I have two big fish to my right who I've been isolating pretty liberally. Unfortunately they fold.

Two ep players limp
Hero MP ($300) :Kd :Td raises to $23
V1 CO ($1000) calls $23
BB ($500) calls $23
All others fold
Flop ($75) :Jd :2h :4h
Bb checks
Hero bets $35
Co calls $35
Bb calls $35
Turn ($180) :7d
Bb checks
Hero bets $85
Both call
River ($435) :As
Bb bets $300
Hero folds
Co folds

On this hand I was planning to shove any non-heart river. V2 always leads with Top pair, this hand he had Ahxh, co has a pretty wide range, most likely a hand like 65s, he said he folded Ax on the river as well so maybe he had Ad3d type hand. He played with me a lot and usually doesn't call me down lightly. Targets mostly other players.

Given these ranges had BB checked, should I still jam the river?

My plan was a little thrown off when they both called the Turn. I thought one would fold and I would still have an Ok bet size on the river around half pot.

Comments

  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    I'm not a huge fan of the post-flop plan. If V1 behind you calls too much, then I'd prefer value-betting or betting hands that have real equity-when-called. Your hand on this flop has neither. Given the draw potential as well, it's going to be harder to fold out two opponents.

    I don't see this as a likely triple-barreling hand, to be honest, against these particular opponents.

    In addition, I don't think that you're deep enough to really put pressure. As played, by the time that you're at the river, you'd be shoving $157 into a $435 pot had it checked to you. Again, with an opponent behind you who calls a lot, I don't think that you have the requisite fold equity throughout to make this a profitable triple-barrel.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm not a huge fan of the post-flop plan. If V1 behind you calls too much, then I'd prefer value-betting or betting hands that have real equity-when-called. Your hand on this flop has neither. Given the draw potential as well, it's going to be harder to fold out two opponents.

    I don't see this as a likely triple-barreling hand, to be honest, against these particular opponents.

    In addition, I don't think that you're deep enough to really put pressure. As played, by the time that you're at the river, you'd be shoving $157 into a $435 pot had it checked to you. Again, with an opponent behind you who calls a lot, I don't think that you have the requisite fold equity throughout to make this a profitable triple-barrel.

    for the most part I see your logic. Co does call a lot but also tries to avoid me. I think this gives me some decent FE. I think he may fold a hand like 66 on the flop and continue with 99+ Jx+ fd or some gutters with bdfd. Given im the PFR I can bet diamonds and most broadways on the turn that are not a heart. The board is pretty dry and I do block some JT and KJ type hands.

    If this was HU pio would have me betting this flop with this hand at a high frequency and barreling maybe 60% of my range. Three way, just lowers the frequency but doesn't make it 0%.
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 294 ✭✭✭
    There's a big problem with the plan: the hero is not deep enough.

    As played the river shove is less than half PSB, which against a LAG who calls too much, there isn't enough fold equity to make it profitable. Even if only one V calls the turn, the river shove is still only around half PSB.

    Also the turn bet was way too small, all draws, Jx are gonna continue without much thought, H isn't accomplishing much nor getting any information with this bet. A bigger bet will allow H to get more information through live reads.

    IMO if H is gonna shove, turn is the best spot to do it, make it seem like you are charging multiple draws with an over pair or 2P.

    In general, with a 100BB stack, opening KTs from MP is way too loose. The hand doesn't hit strong enough post, and H does not have the stack depth or position to maneuver to showdown or deny it.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    There's a big problem with the plan: the hero is not deep enough.

    As played the river shove is less than half PSB, which against a LAG who calls too much, there isn't enough fold equity to make it profitable. Even if only one V calls the turn, the river shove is still only around half PSB.

    Also the turn bet was way too small, all draws, Jx are gonna continue without much thought, H isn't accomplishing much nor getting any information with this bet. A bigger bet will allow H to get more information through live reads.

    IMO if H is gonna shove, turn is the best spot to do it, make it seem like you are charging multiple draws with an over pair or 2P.

    In general, with a 100BB stack, opening KTs from MP is way too loose. The hand doesn't hit strong enough post, and H does not have the stack depth or position to maneuver to showdown or deny it.

    Turn shove I kind of like in this spot. Would be difficult for them to call.

    Not opening suited broadways from MP? How do you figure that is not profitable? Most suited broadways are opened in EP, except a select view KTs & QTs.

    I have a chart from when I first started grinding micros from CR. Was basically
    Ep first 3 positions AQ+ 66+
    MP 4th-5th positions AJ+ KQ+ 22+
    CO ATB+ 22+ J9s+ 87s+
    BTN A8+, ATB+, 22+ 76s+

    This range will have you playing like 10\8 or something pretty nitty a long those lines.

    This is an incredibly tight range for beginners. Doesn't expand HJ or LJ positions. I understand first two - three positions should be extremely tight, but after those 3 people fold, look at any six max book and see the opening range from UTG or which would be MP1 for FR.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2018
    I agree with @Yanming Z ... why do you only have 300? Either it's your 1-2-3 game and your preflop bet sizing is very big, or you play 2-5 and you're rather short stack.

    So did you "overbet" preflop (which may impact V's ranges) or did you open with a hand not suited for your stack depth ?


    Out of that, I don't like c-betting KdTd. It's too weak! Even if you hit K you don't know if someone is not peeling with a better K, and a T won't save you. I'd be ok with 2 over cards +bckd FD.
    Also your turn bet size is odd. Bit less than half pot ? I'd be ok when it's 50 into 110 or 100 into 220 (can be seen as 2x green or 1x black chips), but 85 is a specific size. Also you barely have more than 1 pot size left (242$ for a 180$), so any bet is de facto playing for stacks; if so, then better shove turn than small bet turn + undershove river. (But again, even if it gives you pressure on them, KdTd may not be the best - even if you picked FD here)

    I kinda feel all turned bad because of preflop play.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2018
    "KTs from MP is way too loose."- Read opener.
    8 handed at the time I believe. I have two big fish to my right who I've been isolating pretty liberally. Unfortunately they fold. I believe the $23 is an attempt to get them to call and then barrel them post?
    I play a lot like this, and in some games it is 100% viable. Many bad player will call to much pre and fold too much post, and barreling relentlessly works because they just don't make a stand with top pair hands against a perceived over pair 3 barrel play. I buy in for $200 at $1/3 and play a hand selection like this vs opponents who call to much pre and fold to much post. They think me firing 3 shells of 66 BB's = AA/KK. By the time they figure it out I'm at $350+ and generally adjust. Either that or I lose 132 BB's in 2 orbits currently in a 8 buy-in downswing


    I think we would have played this hand extremely similar. However, on the turn once called, I think I give up on the river. Two people, one likely with hearts, and one likely with a strong Jx hand. The river clearly improved his AJ, and sometimes poker is amazing to us and drops that sweet :AD: on the river for us, but this stuff let's you get off cheap.

    Now I wasn't at your game, and it looks like you were trying to get the fish in behind you, but once they fold, I think we gotta alter our plan against two players calling a "larger" size open. I also think this open from MP to this size doesn't really accomplish steals, and unless the fish behind you are mega fit or fold post flop, I think opening to $15 in MP with this hand at 100 BB's allows for a less inflated pot and more play ability with what is really a marginal hand.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 301 ✭✭✭
    I am not a fan of how you played this one. I'm assuming this is 1/3.

    First of all, after two EP limpers, you decide to 7x it with KTs from MP. This is a recipe for a bloated pot with a dominated hand, possibly OOP if you pick up callers behind (which you did). Maybe if these guys tend to overfold preflop/on the flop to smaller raises I could see raising, but to a smaller size.

    Once we get to the flop, I'm on board with barreling, but I think $35 is problematic. If we assume one caller, that makes for a pot of 145 and leaves you with a stack of ~240. That makes for an awkward amount on the turn. I would prefer something like 60. That makes a 195 pot and a nice sized 215 shove on the turn if you catch a good barreling card.

    As played, I do think a turn jam is still the best move. It seems unlikely anyone is going to fold to a reasonable bet, so really push that FE.

    Once they both call the turn, had it been checked to you, I think trying to steal is throwing money away. You'll need both to fold something like 30% of the time and with the size of the pot, I just don't see it happening.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 777 ✭✭✭
    IMO, I agree with shoving the turn. Due to the shrinking SPR, even with only one caller to $85 turn bet it will leave stack shy of what I want on the river. i always think if I can't have PSB left or maybe a little less then I am better shoving turns for both value and bluffs
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm surprised to hear preflop should be $15 when that is a pretty standard open size. Usually its $12-$15 then you add 1 bb per limper and adjust to the table dynamics. Had I have AA here would $23 be too large? The fish were calling $15 with 53o and K6o so why not size up? KTs is near the bottom of my MP range, but my range as a whole should be raising to at least $20 here after two limps.

    Also believe this board is some what dry so a half pot cbet with only back door draws is pretty standard. I would do half pot with AA as well. On the turn is where I messed up imo where it should be a shove picking up the additional equity. If I'm not shoving then a really small bet $50 or less to give myself odds. I don't like checking because I think the lag on the btn will take advantage of it and put me in a weird spot.

    Also PSB would be $18 preflop, so $23 for isolating fish is not too drastic. Just a simple table dynamic adjustment. It's higher variance than over limping but I really like KTs vs their ranges. I'm actually really surprised they folded seeing how wide they call with 53o. Must of been 52o.

    Also flop bet of $60 into $75 seems a bit large and more of a one and done strategy. Where most turns I will have to give up on, a lot I can continue on, but most are folds. 40-50 ok around 2\3. But not 3\4. Maybe if it was J84hh.

    Underbets or around half pot are becoming pretty normal for me given the 100bb game and mw nature.
    Lets say you make it $15 with AA and get 3 callers.
    Flop (60) K22
    Hero (285) bets 30
    2 callers
    1 fold
    Turn (150) K22J
    Hero (255) bets 75
    1 caller
    1 fold
    River (405) K22JQ
    Héro ($170) all in
    1 caller KQ.
    Hero wins.

    Going half pot still allows stacks to get in pretty easy.

    The advice I mostly agree with but it's a little contradictory where preflop is too large and should be smaller, and post Flop is too small and should be larger.

    Over thinking this, I can actually see betting 1\3 on flop and turn instead of larger and jamming.

    Overall, as played I agree with jamming the turn. I think I should of played it one of two ways though.

    Example 1)
    2 limpers
    Hero iso to $20 KdTd
    Btn and co call
    Others folds
    Flop ($65+6) Jd2h4h
    Hero bets $40
    2 calls
    Turn ($185) 7d
    Hero ($240) all in
    *similar predicament with small preflop and about 2\3 cbet with drop removed.

    Example 2
    2 limpers
    Hero iso to $20 KdTd
    Btn and co call
    Others folds
    Flop ($65+6) Jd2h4h
    Hero bets $25
    2 callers
    Turn ($140) 7d
    Hero (255) bets 45
    2 callers
    River (245) As
    Hero ($210) ?

    Here the 1\3 seems to work more in my favor assuming they both call giving myself 5:1 each street.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    Lol I bet $20 with AA as well. Just saying, in a lot of my games people really don't catch on to betting patterns from what I can tell, but they have them. Do you think they are folding KJ for $23? A10? AJ? Are you trying to force them into the top of their range?Are you that worried about 63o for $15? I guess sure the $23 sometimes knocks everyone out and you pick up the $10, but at $23 you clearly inflatted the pot with the bottom of your opening range, shrank the SPR, and now hard to barrel hard to win on so many bad run outs. If you just wanna pick up the $10 in the middle, make it $45 why not? I assume you are trying to out play the fish. Bigger SPR leaves more room for maneuvering, and K10ss definitely needs some maneuvering more often than not.


    I don't have a problem with flop sizing TBH. A bunch of their air folds out. Your never getting a jack to fold, even if you size up, and maybe not ever if it's TPTK. And I don't keep bluffing if I don't pick up equity, which you know thankfully you do, so maybe you can shove the turn (which I think people pointed out was good), but with only BD fd/sd and 1 overcard to come, which might not even be a clean out, I don't wanna start hammering at this pot on the flop.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    Lol I bet $20 with AA as well. Just saying, in a lot of my games people really don't catch on to betting patterns from what I can tell, but they have them. Do you think they are folding KJ for $23? A10? AJ? Are you trying to force them into the top of their range?Are you that worried about 63o for $15? I guess sure the $23 sometimes knocks everyone out and you pick up the $10, but at $23 you clearly inflatted the pot with the bottom of your opening range, shrank the SPR, and now hard to barrel hard to win on so many bad run outs. If you just wanna pick up the $10 in the middle, make it $45 why not? I assume you are trying to out play the fish. Bigger SPR leaves more room for maneuvering, and K10ss definitely needs some maneuvering more often than not.


    I don't have a problem with flop sizing TBH. A bunch of their air folds out. Your never getting a jack to fold, even if you size up, and maybe not ever if it's TPTK. And I don't keep bluffing if I don't pick up equity, which you know thankfully you do, so maybe you can shove the turn (which I think people pointed out was good), but with only BD fd/sd and 1 overcard to come, which might not even be a clean out, I don't wanna start hammering at this pot on the flop.

    My typical open is $12 (4x)
    1 limper = $15
    2 limper = 18
    3 = 21
    Etc.

    This one they were calling $15 with 53o and K6o so if I make it $15 the pot is likely going 5-6 ways with $75-$90 in the pot and a similar SPR with 2 additional people in the pot.

    Table I was on yesterday I did the same thing. They straddle and I open $18 (3x the straddle) kept getting more action so went to 20 then 22 then 25 etc. They were short stacks but still calling with wide range any Axs all 86s+ any braodway JTo etc. Eventually I opened to $35 with AK (no limpers) and got HU. Because they have wide ranges preflop and more fit or fold post, not really fit or fold, but will call with gutter+ but won't bet their draws. I just use larger preflop sizing and downbets postflop until I had a really good hand and I feel their sticky then go for max value all in.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    Suppose more than 1 way to skin a cat. $15 5 ways can be "bingo" sure, but can certainly be EV+. I actually consider it a "drawing" hand, when opened in MP, or a steal hand with good equity late. I generally really like to just open my strong dominating hands from EP, KQ+ and PP to a smaller size to set mine and build a pot (nobody seems to notice when I got from $15 normal open down to $10-$12). LP is where I get my steal with large sizing on, like 30%+ of hands.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    Suppose more than 1 way to skin a cat. $15 5 ways can be "bingo" sure, but can certainly be EV+. I actually consider it a "drawing" hand, when opened in MP, or a steal hand with good equity late. I generally really like to just open my strong dominating hands from EP, KQ+ and PP to a smaller size to set mine and build a pot (nobody seems to notice when I got from $15 normal open down to $10-$12). LP is where I get my steal with large sizing on, like 30%+ of hands.

    I pick up a lot of sizing tells on players. They just don't tell you they notice. They just start set mining against you. I made numerous 3 bets with trash in the past because of bet sizing tells and capping their ranges. Recently I decided to stick within my range construction and instead of just calling with my hands like T9s ill 3 bet them Some times with extra information. Not doing it with 64s any more, still getting folded. Unless your really mixing it up going $20 with KK and $15 AA, both top of your range, I would tread carefully. I know Johnathan little was making it 3-4x most of his range, but makes it 8x when he wants folds, say you have 33 in the co after 1 limper. How do they respond to 7x?
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    They likely fold lol. But I mean...I kinda like to lay a small price with small PP to build a pot and set mine. I don't need to have an over limping strategy with them. I generally only attack if there are 2+ limpers, in which case I just want the $10 in the middle rake free. I mean, I attack small opens, yet when I small open, except for a few players who I have history with, they just call me with KQ when I open for $10 (and I have 44). I make it $20 with AK and the call me with KQ. The open 109ss to $12. The open AA to $20. Easy to see through many players.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 301 ✭✭✭
    Generally in a game like the one you described, I would agree that raise sizes should probably trend larger, like you made it. I just don't know that you should be raising this size with this hand - if a smaller size won't affect much, I would just not raise this hand. If you say this is the bottom of your range, fair enough; I personally would still probably tighten it. You know your specific game dynamics best though.

    I am still in favor of a large bet on this flop. So much of your range is going to miss that if you decide to bet, you don't want to give CO a good price to float. A bigger bet makes it a lot tougher for him to do so.

    Yes, I would plan to make this a one and done type bet unless you pick up a K,Q,A or diamond on the turn, in which case I'd ship (maybe less so on an A, depending on how infrequently Vs call flop with two non-A hearts.)
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2018
    Austin wrote: »
    I'm surprised to hear preflop should be $15 when that is a pretty standard open size. Usually its $12-$15 then you add 1 bb per limper and adjust to the table dynamics.

    But many player don't have this XX+X/limper kind of thought. Same that some Villain see bets in $ and other see bet in % of the pot.

    Opening 23$ instead of 15$ seems too big to me. It may send a funny message to the other players. Also, I'm not really on board a) attacking like b) from MP and c) with the bottom of my range. I'd only do that if I'm sure I'll have enough fold to get it through, because once called, as said @jfarrow13 and as I implied in my previous post, your hand is going to face mostly stronger range and somehow OOP. Plus, if they call, pot is going to be bloated. Worst is: CO is a caller, and right after you; if he calls, it's going to be call-fest and you will be in a world of pain with KTs.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file