help in analyzing a hand

KrishPokerKrishPoker Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭

Pre-flop :
Hero (BUT - SZ $900) :As :3s
UTG (SZ - $ 180) raises $25, CO (SZ : $250) calls, BB, SB and rest fold. Hero Calls

UTG seems a tight player and has won more than 50% on showdowns. CO is a loose player, calls a wide range of hands frequently.

Flop : :7d :Ad :3c
UTG (155) raises $30, CO ($225) calls and Hero ($875) calls.

Turn : :Ah

UTG ($125) raises $50, CO ($195) calls and Hero ($845) calls.

River : :9s

UTG ($75) shoves all- in, CO ($145) raises ($120). What should Hero do? Should he fold, call or raise?

The only hands that beat Hero's hand are :Ac :9d + or :Ac :7s + (and other combos of A7's and A9s). I would expect UTG to have atleast :Ac since he was leading the bet. He could have AK, AQ, AJ, AT. He may not have raised $25 pre-flop with A7's of off-suit A9's and his raise on river was too big indicating either he hit a A9 full house or a bluff? Is this thought process in correct?

I will update with spoilers in the next post.

Comments

  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Let's work backwards.

    On the river: How could you NOT shove? You listed it yourself -- does CO really have a hand that beats you?? Highly unlikely -- but very likely that CO has a strong hand (AQ?) that will gladly call.

    Technical question: If, on the river, UTG leads for $75, then how can CO raise to $120? A raise needs to be at least twice the initial bet.


    On the turn and on the flop: You could consider a raise (or shove) on either street -- both players clearly have strong hands or strong draws, and A3 is likely ahead of everything but a flopped set, which you block in the cases of the aces and threes. But, given all the action before you, flat-calling could be fine, too.

    Technical comment: When leading out, UTG is betting, not raising.


    Pre-flop: Why are you calling?? You're facing two players who are short-stacked, one of whom is tight. It's verrrrry hard for this call to be profitable under those circumstances.

    Technical comment: BB and SB can't fold before Hero calls.

    I added the technical questions and comments just to help tighten up future posts. Makes 'em easier for us to read and respond to. :)
  • KrishPokerKrishPoker Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    Thank you moishetreats for analyzes and technical corrections.

    UTG had :Ac :Jd and CO had :9c :7s . As you suggested, Hero did shove and won the pot.

    1. how is it possible to effectively estimate if UTG has A9's or not given that he shoved all-in in the river.
    2. Pre-flop: Why are you calling?? You're facing two players who are short-stacked, one of whom is tight. It's verrrrry hard for this call to be profitable under those circumstances.
    Is it optimal to raise with :As :3s ? (not a great hand). Also, I am bad with big stack sizes, as many times I have lost when with big stack sizes. Is there a course that talks about strategies dealing with difference in stack sizes?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Preflop is an auto fold given the stacks. Squeeze would be reckless given the stacks and tight player.

    Lets say UTG has AQ or AK. You hold the last ace, making it impossible for CO to have a better hand.

    Maybe 33, 77, sticky 99 hand. To me this is a pretty easy shove. Your playing 50bb poker. Worse hand preflop to probably call with is A10s+ KJs+ 77+. Not sure about the bottom of this range. Could probably tighten it to AJs+, KQs+ 77+.

    I agree with everything else @moishetreats said
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,640 -
    KrishPoker wrote: »
    Thank you moishetreats for analyzes and technical corrections.

    UTG had :Ac :Jd and CO had :9c :7s . As you suggested, Hero did shove and won the pot.

    1. how is it possible to effectively estimate if UTG has A9's or not given that he shoved all-in in the river.
    2. Pre-flop: Why are you calling?? You're facing two players who are short-stacked, one of whom is tight. It's verrrrry hard for this call to be profitable under those circumstances.
    Is it optimal to raise with :As :3s ? (not a great hand). Also, I am bad with big stack sizes, as many times I have lost when with big stack sizes. Is there a course that talks about strategies dealing with difference in stack sizes?

    Our CORE developers recently posted two lessons on effective stacks that would be useful.

    This podcast may also help: https://redchippoker.com/spr-stack-to-pot-ratio-podcast/
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Jeff PritchardJeff Pritchard Red Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
    Just a thought, if UTG is raising AJo then he's probably not as tight as you thought imo.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    KrishPoker wrote: »
    1. how is it possible to effectively estimate if UTG has A9's or not given that he shoved all-in in the river.

    As you said he played on the tight side, it implies that it's really unlikely that he is opening with A9s preflop in the first place.

    Just a thought, if UTG is raising AJo then he's probably not as tight as you thought imo.

    I still put AJ+ in a tight opening range. Tighter would be more in the nitty range.
    Yeah, AJo is somehow on the line, but I won't take this unique hint to put V1 (UTG) on a complete profile just based on this hand.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,640 -
    FWIW our loose opening range charts in CORE don't include AJo from up front.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2018
    A loose range without AJo UTG ? LOL !

    I've seen bad (and few good) players opening all AXs and most it not all AXo from UTG. This is a loose range.
    AJ - even AJo - is a still strong hand. We can advocate not opening it from UTG in a tight range or advise not to to beginners until they handle well all basics (which is usually advising them to play the previously cited tight range).
    But still AJo being a great AX belongs for sure in a loose UTG opening range.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,815 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's not even clear how many people are at this table. For all I know, it could be 5, in which case AJ is a raise even for a nitty player. OK, supposedly we could guess it's more than 5 because there was an anachronistic comment about "rest fold", but how many players start the hand is part of the basic information to be considered.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,640 -
    Red wrote: »
    A loose range without AJo UTG ? LOL !

    I've seen bad (and few good) players opening all AXs and most it not all AXo from UTG. This is a loose range.
    AJ - even AJo - is a still strong hand. We can advocate not opening it from UTG in a tight range or advise not to to beginners until they handle well all basics (which is usually advising them to play the previously cited tight range).
    But still AJo being a great AX belongs for sure in a loose UTG opening range.

    It's absence reflects Ed Miller's avoidance of offsuit broadways.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    KrishPoker wrote: »
    UTG had :Ac :Jd and CO had :9c :7s . As you suggested, Hero did shove and won the pot.

    Nice!!

    KrishPoker wrote: »
    1. how is it possible to effectively estimate if UTG has A9's or not given that he shoved all-in in the river.

    Great question. Think of the two basic reasons why someone shoves:
    (a) To try to get a better hand to fold; or
    (b) To try to get a worse hand to call.

    Now, think of your analysis on the river: It's not likely that CO has a hand that beats you, right? Now look at it from UTG's perspective. Most player would raise with AK and possibly/probably with AK. If either player had pocket nines, then he probably folds on the flop. You also don't expect a lot of pre-flop calls with A9, A7, or A3 (oops!). Not a lot of hands that beat you.

    The problem with that logic in this specific hand is that there aren't a lot hands left that call that UTG beats. AT? Still, I think that UTG expects a lot of folds. And, if UTG is wrong about either opponent having, say, A7 or A3, then those opponents could also have A6 and A5, making this a shove that other players will call.

    And UTG is short-stacked.

    So, yes, UTG or CO might have a rare hand that beats you here. But, there are sooooo few of those compared to what loses to you given ranges.

    I usually start my analysis working backwards. In this case, it's pretty easy. The only hands that beat you are A9 and A7. Obviously, players with those hands would be in on the river, turn, and flop. But, as you noted in your own opening post, it's highly unlikely that either player has either hand pre-flop. Classic poker line (which, by the way, I think is relied on far too often but holds here): If a hand isn't in a player's likely range pre-flop, then it's not part if his or her likely range post-flop.

    KrishPoker wrote: »
    2. Pre-flop: Why are you calling?? You're facing two players who are short-stacked, one of whom is tight. It's verrrrry hard for this call to be profitable under those circumstances.
    Is it optimal to raise with :As :3s ? (not a great hand). Also, I am bad with big stack sizes, as many times I have lost when with big stack sizes. Is there a course that talks about strategies dealing with difference in stack sizes?

    A3s can be a great hand to raise pre-flop under certain conditions. It can be a great hand to call with under certain conditions. If you or your opponent(s) is (are) short-stacked, though, then it's almost always best to fold it.

    If an ace flops and there is lots of action, then odds are that someone has an ace (like in this exact hand -- say the flop were A72), and you'd likely call since you hit your ace. Uh, oh -- you lose the big pot.

    Say that an ace does not flop. You'll likely be folding to any action, and you lose your pre-flop call.

    Say that two spades fall. You'll likely get your stack in pretty quickly. But, there is not a ton of fold equity (short-stacked) which is important when playing draws. And, if you do hit, you're not getting paid off that much (short-stacked).

    So, in the end, for this hand to be played profitably, you need to make more money when you hit your flush and get paid off than the money you lose when you fold on the flop or pay off someone else's bigger ace. The math doesn't work.

    Yes, there are times like the hand that you listed that are an outlier where you win a monster (there are also times like this hand where by some crazy notion one of your opponents does have, say, A9). But, they are so rare that you can't reasonably rely on them to have a meaningful effect on your bottom line overall.

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,170 ✭✭✭✭✭
    In a 100 bb, full ring game composed of rational actors, AJo, suited connectors and most suited aces are all on the loose side from UTG. Don't be blinded by recommendations which make assumptions about post flop scenarios rather than working with the stacks and positions as a model. Further, ranges contort to opening size as well. That's especially important for players around here, as the effort to open every playable hand while also applying pain threshold ideas in this scenario is essentially irreconcilable.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 777 ✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    In a 100 bb, full ring game composed of rational actors, AJo, suited connectors and most suited aces are all on the loose side from UTG. Don't be blinded by recommendations which make assumptions about post flop scenarios rather than working with the stacks and positions as a model. Further, ranges contort to opening size as well. That's especially important for players around here, as the effort to open every playable hand while also applying pain threshold ideas in this scenario is essentially irreconcilable.

    and expensive
  • Stavros_GeorgiadisStavros_Georgiadis GreeceRed Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
    edited May 2018
    Fold pre-flop. (You got extremely lucky in this hand imo)
    Call flop.
    A case can be made for raising the turn...
    Shove river. If you don’t raise this river you are raising only the absolute nuts. You are good against CO 90% of times, since UTG should have the other A.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,640 -
    persuadeo wrote: »
    In a 100 bb, full ring game composed of rational actors, AJo, suited connectors and most suited aces are all on the loose side from UTG. Don't be blinded by recommendations which make assumptions about post flop scenarios rather than working with the stacks and positions as a model. Further, ranges contort to opening size as well. That's especially important for players around here, as the effort to open every playable hand while also applying pain threshold ideas in this scenario is essentially irreconcilable.

    A beautifully concise expression of an extremely important point.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • KrishPokerKrishPoker Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    thanks folks for the advice! :As :Ah
  • kevinhaggykevinhaggy Red Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    I've seen bad (and few good) players opening all AXs and most it not all AXo from UTG. This is a loose range.
    AJ - even AJo - is a still strong hand. We can advocate not opening it from UTG in a tight range or advise not to to beginners until they handle well all basics (which is usually advising them to play the previously cited tight range).
    But still AJo being a great AX belongs for sure in a loose UTG opening range.[/quote]

    I have to disagree with AJo not being loose. If it was an AJs then I would say this is an ok range to consider villain an tight player. I consider my self tight, not nitty from utg. But, AJo would not be a hand I would open from utg in a 9max table, six max I would open this hand from utg.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,815 ✭✭✭✭✭
    AJo is one of those hands that looks great, until you start getting action.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2018
    jeffnc wrote: »
    AJo is one of those hands that looks great, until you start getting action.

    One could say that about every single hand.

    Not a good poker approach, IMO.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    so much discussion about AJ. In general if you check a large data base for FR you will see AJo and KQo as losing hands in the online poker realm. In the pits however, ranges are much wider and these hands can be profitable, but add a certain degree to your variance, not always negative.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,815 ✭✭✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    AJo is one of those hands that looks great, until you start getting action.

    One could say that about every single hand.

    Not a good poker approach, IMO.

    Really? I'll take all the action I can get with AA, YMMV.

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