Two pair facing river donk

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,140 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited June 6 in Live Poker Hands
Hero :Ad :Jh open $15 CO
Sb ($400 effective) calls
7 handed table.
Flop (34) :Ah :Jd :7h
Sb check
Hero bet 20
Sb call
Turn (74) :9d
Sb check
Hero bet 35
Sb calls
River (144) :Kh
Sb bets 80
Hero calls.

Couldn't think of what hearts SB has here besides QhTh. Maybe AK? Sb has been playing pretty tight passive. He's been caught bluffing with small stabs on the river with no showdown value.

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,140 ✭✭✭✭✭
    8jscytsg1h9n.png

    Flop and turn bet sizing could be a little bigger around 2/3 to PSB to be higher EV. River is still a call with the Ah, Jh, Kh, all accounted for.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭
    This is like my past month, I toss in a chip and probably get shown the flush. He's played this a lot like a heart FD, I'd discount the AK but it's possible. I'd definitely size up on the turn, I almost always do on boards like this, as I want to charge FD's for 1 more street as they will likely fold on the river so I can't get 3 streets of value.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,140 ✭✭✭✭✭
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    This is like my past month, I toss in a chip and probably get shown the flush. He's played this a lot like a heart FD, I'd discount the AK but it's possible. I'd definitely size up on the turn, I almost always do on boards like this, as I want to charge FD's for 1 more street as they will likely fold on the river so I can't get 3 streets of value.

    I agree on turn sizing. I 90% thought this was Ax in his range and was targeting a hand like A6s or ATo.
    :Qh :9h Snowie had me thinking in tighter SB ranges. Never underestimate a live player's range.
  • BadgerBadger Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    I would call too, although he has played this exactly like most passive regs play their flush draws right down to the lead on the river.

    I think your just unfortunate to get the :Kh river combined with the :Jh in your hand and probably have to call if you took the time to work through the blockers on the river.

    How are your reads coming along? I ask since mine are still somewhat weak but this seems like a good spot where playstyle, player read might save you 80 bucks. You mention small stabs as bluffs, are we talking 1/3 probe size bets or half pot bets? Can we read into his bet size? His river is approaching 60% I think, which looks a bit meatier and value heavy to me. If he is a passive older guy then this river lead looks pretty scary to me.

    This is not an easy laydown at all, I am not sure I could make it in a cash game. Maybe in a tournament where you have to kind of get tight on a lot of rivers.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,140 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Badger wrote: »
    I would call too, although he has played this exactly like most passive regs play their flush draws right down to the lead on the river.

    I think your just unfortunate to get the :Kh river combined with the :Jh in your hand and probably have to call if you took the time to work through the blockers on the river.

    How are your reads coming along? I ask since mine are still somewhat weak but this seems like a good spot where playstyle, player read might save you 80 bucks. You mention small stabs as bluffs, are we talking 1/3 probe size bets or half pot bets? Can we read into his bet size? His river is approaching 60% I think, which looks a bit meatier and value heavy to me. If he is a passive older guy then this river lead looks pretty scary to me.

    This is not an easy laydown at all, I am not sure I could make it in a cash game. Maybe in a tournament where you have to kind of get tight on a lot of rivers.

    My reads seem pretty crazy recently. Yesterday and I will admit this is a bit lucky, but just paying attention to the player talk you pick up on certain things. Table was a little tight and Co opened $12 and BTN called everyone else folded. They agreed to check it down for whatever reason not wanting to play against each other too much, at least not in small pots. Flop ($29) :9S: :8D: :3H: Co shows :3C: and BTN says "i've got that beat" I said " :QC: :8C: ? " and ended up having :QS: :8C: so pretty close... didn't think off suite was in his range. Other hands just reading into Donk bets I raise EP get 2 callers. Flop 883r and BB donk bets little under half pot. Both players fold I ask him if he has 66? He responds, "close 55."

    As you said in this hand though it's a bit unfortunate that so many hearts are blocked and I didn't range villain correctly preflop as the SB range should be a bit tighter. In the game I was ranging him with all the blockers on the board and I think he made a pretty good bet size. I figured :QH: :TH: was the only flush that made sense to me, but he had :QH: :9H: so off by 1. Still not sure if I can fold here as they can have some random A7s hand they slow played or maybe called down light and donk bet KJ. Had it not been :KH: on the river I will likely be more inclined to fold with less flushes being blocked.
  • MattPMattP Red Chipper Posts: 85 ✭✭
    edited June 14
    It's a call, but one of those sick-to-the-stomach calls. Bet sizing seems fine; you can always nitpick in hindsight.

    A lot of 1/2 or 1/3 players would play this to the river with any two hearts. But they also happily stick around with weak aces and think they have the nuts. You beat plenty of hands in villains range to justify the call...
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,425 ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 15
    Austin wrote: »
    Couldn't think of what hearts SB has here besides QhTh.
    - Some only have sets or better who want to value bet and avoid check-check river;
    - Some are flush heavy with sticky bad draws (and could come up with 9h6h kind of hands);
    - Some will have too many bluffs, turning their "meh" hand into a bluff because it's a scary card.

    Out of the blue, impossible to know if you shall call or fold. I'd guess based on distribution that it might be rather a fold. Yeah, good pot odds, but what value hands V rep and we beat ?

    But in the end, it depends a lot on Villain's profile. Personally, I can't assign any range or break this hand down without any relevant info. You need to observe your Villain more @Austin . Post fewer hands, but with deeper analysis and observations :)
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,140 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    Couldn't think of what hearts SB has here besides QhTh.
    - Some only have sets or better who want to value bet and avoid check-check river;
    - Some are flush heavy with sticky bad draws (and could come up with 9h6h kind of hands);
    - Some will have too many bluffs, turning their "meh" hand into a bluff because it's a scary card.

    Out of the blue, impossible to know if you shall call or fold. I'd guess based on distribution that it might be rather a fold. Yeah, good pot odds, but what value hands V rep and we beat ?

    But in the end, it depends a lot on Villain's profile. Personally, I can't assign any range or break this hand down without any relevant info. You need to observe your Villain more @Austin . Post fewer hands, but with deeper analysis and observations :)

    Played against him a few times now. Pretty tag straight forward player. Now that we have some history over 3 sessions I have yet to see him bluff. Maybe his range is a bit wider than some tags, but his bluffing frequency is 0% that I've seen besides the standard cbet.
  • Naïm TerracheNaïm Terrache Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    Let's assume V is defending is blind with this range :

    TT-22,AQo-A7o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A7s,A5s,A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s

    On the Flop, against this range, your equity is 87%, means you're crushing him. He's on a flush draw only 4% of the time, since all his Axs combos are taken away with the Ace of the flop. Most of the time you're up against TP here, I would take an aggressive line as you did, and would mitigate on the river call depending on V's profile.

    On the river, according to Flopzilla and combos calculations, the only reasonable flush draws he can have are QTs-Q9s (on the tight side) and 56s-89s-9Ts (more on the loose side). It all comes down to the player then.

    Good folds are sometimes better than good calls.

    Hope this helps,

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