KQs top two 325bb deep + 3 bet pot

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,375 ✭✭✭✭
Here is a hand from CLP forum that I found pretty interesting given villain is repping a small range.
I raise EP K♥ Q♥ 20, CO calls, BTN raise 95, I call, CO folds. Heads up (1525 effective) BTN is a middle aged Asian man, plays pretty frequently, reasonably tight, probably a winner in the games.

K♠ Q♠ 7♦ (Pot 210)

I check, BTN 135, I x/r 450 he calls.

K♠ Q♠ 7♦ 6♠ (Pot 1110)

I check, BTN all in 975 effective I fold.

I don’t expect him to have many flushes here at all, ATss and AJss are the only flushes that would make sense, but I don’t think he squeezes them preflop. I would also expect him to check back AsAx and AsKx on the turn but maybe he spazz jams them. Not sure if I’m supposed to just go with my hand here and jam the turn myself, or check call off, or check fold?

At the time I figured when I am ahead he still has like 33% equity and if he occasionally turns up with a flush I’m buried.

My thinking on this hand is villain wouldn't shove all in with a flush on the turn. Villain likely only has 6 combos of NF AJs-A10s & A5s-A2s. Villain has 2 combos of AsKx & 3 combos of AA with AsAx. I expect AsJs & As10s to just get it all in on the flop as well as the two combos of QQ & KK. To me the all in on the turn is weighted towards AA and AK.

0kr6unlmy3pa.png

Snowie has KQs as just a fold preflop vs the squeeze. Thoughts? Makes sense, 3 bettor is tighter player, hero is oop, villain has initiative, etc. The one positive is the stacks are 300bb+ deep.

How do you play the turn? I think it's a bet and call off given Hero's check raise range should have QQ, 77, AJs, A10s, & KQs. Hero should be at the bottom of his range here with KQs given the preflop and flop action.

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,375 ✭✭✭✭
  • RoblivionRoblivion Red Chipper Posts: 136 ✭✭
    I think folding pre seems best also, for the reasons you mentioned as well as the size of his raise.

    Tough to put any actual analysis into this hand with such a short, vague villain description.

    I think the turn is an open jam. KQ should be the best hand here very often, and if he has the ace of spades, you get to charge the maximum. Based on the short profile provided I would also guess he doesn't have many flushes here, but it depends on his 3-bet strategy. Maybe he opens it up to a lot of suited connectors when 300 BB deep.

    As played, the turn call seems right on the border, but probably good.
  • BadgerBadger Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    I cant imagine folding KQsuited to a three bet unless the player was really good. It just plays so well after the flop. That's really what the GTO solver says to do?

    Ugh, we could be just stone dead. But after the check raise on the flop and then the obvious draw comes in and you checked, could we have induced him to think AA, AK with the :As is good?

    I think :Ts :9s is a pretty reasonable flush draw as well, a lot of players see gutshot straight flush draw and call the check raise. Maybe :Js :9s too?

    I dunno, I just worry this guy might have more possible flushes than your giving him credit for. If he is using a polarized 3Bet range he will have hands like 98, 87 along with the weak A2, 3, 4, 5 suited for board coverage and now there is a pretty good number of hands that beat you. I would really be focusing on how often this player three bets in position and trying to run through your history together. How does he play flush draws? I am going to guess a lot of guys that have a flush draw and see your check raise will call it since now they know its more likely you will pay them off it hits and they can bluff the turn if their draw somehow improves. Really like to know more about my opponent here.

    Just an icky spot. I guess I fold and go for a walk around the building to clear my head.



  • RoblivionRoblivion Red Chipper Posts: 136 ✭✭
    Badger wrote: »
    I dunno, I just worry this guy might have more possible flushes than your giving him credit for. If he is using a polarized 3Bet range he will have hands like 98, 87 along with the weak A2, 3, 4, 5 suited for board coverage and now there is a pretty good number of hands that beat you. I would really be focusing on how often this player three bets in position and trying to run through your history together.

    This is pretty much how I feel. The entire hand turns on what type of 3-bet strategy he has. If he's only QQ+, AK then I think you rip it in on the turn. The more SCs and suited AX he 3-bets, the more I think it swings to a check/fold.

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