bluff or not to bluff

Viktor SeboViktor Sebo Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
Playing 1£/1£ cash game. Very limp oriented table.

Utg straddle 2£, LJ limps (loose fish), HJ(hero) 380 behind limps behind with JTo, BTN (unknown but seems solid, also covers us) bet 10£, LJ call, HJ call.

Flop (34£) :Qh :9s :5d
LJ check, hero check, BTN cbet 25£, hero call

Turn (84£) :3s
hero check, BTN barrels 50£, hero check-raise 110£, BTN call

River (304£) :3h
hero shoves 235£

Is this line ok? Should I just call the turn instead?
I guess am not balanced on river as well as I have too high bluff to value ratio. Bluffing JT(16 combos) + some missed FDs like :Ks :Ts , :Ks :Js
Value betting Q9s (2 combos) + AQ(12 combos) +99 (3 combos) + 66 (3 combos).
So my Bluff to value ratio is around 1:1 and if am correct should be more like 1:2 on river.
Is being not balanced here like this a big issue?

PS: this is my first hand review post so am sorry if it looks a bit messy.





Best Answers

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,846 ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 2018 Accepted Answer
    This is such a bad line...

    First, don't limp. It's an advanced strategy when you've mastered a winning aggro stragy. If you limp to see a cheap flop, you're just playing bingo poker. You don't want to play bingo poker.
    Also limping (without a balanced strategy) twists your range and capps it. You can't have AQ or QQ anymore bc you'd open them instead of limp them, maybe not even 99. So when you're raising for bluff later, you don't have these value hands to balance your range and you'll be too much bluff heavy.

    Second, why do you check-raise turn on a brick ? Which value hands do you have which makes sense ? Which hand do you try to make fold when you bluff? If you didn't check-raise flop, then why :3S: change anything? Because you pick some extra equity with :SPADE: bckd FD once every blue moon on the hand you limp-call pre and float the flop (like what... Qs8s at best ?) ?

    Third, when you raise, you're bluffing (now). This means you want to put pressure on Villain for him to have a hard time calling. More pressure, more mistake, better for us. But barely min-raising puts no pressure! Min raising turn, when pot is bigger than on flop, puts no pressure as well. Just look at the odds: Villain has to call 60 to win 304£ (less than 20% pot odds: he needs to win 20% of the time or more to be +EV). If he has AQ, does he fold for 60£ more?
    You have to really size bigger! Throw a pot size bet (~220£) and see the difference.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Accepted Answer
    I agree overall with @Red, but I'd like to make one clarification.

    The min-raise on the turn followed by a river shove can actually put tremendous pressure on an opponent. It sure as hell looks like you're trying to get whatever value you know you can get on the turn before getting it in. It's almost like hedging your bets. "He's not going to go all-in on the turn, so I'll get what I can now and then hope that he calls later." It can put pressure on an opponent.

    But, only IF the opponent either looks weak and/or the turn card really helped your range. Those are the only ways to use this line profitably for fold equity. Neither of those, as @Red pointed out, is the case here.

    One final note. If you're going to check-raise somewhere this hand, then the flop is the best place to do it. Still, as @Red also noted, limp-calling pre-flop reaaaaaally caps your range of credible made hands.

Answers

  • BadgerBadger Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    I agree with moishetreats, if your check raising it should be on the flop and then you can bluff big on the turn while you still have equity and no showdown value.

    Pretty bad run out to bluff in my opinion, I don't think anyone is afraid of this run out. The line just doesn't make sense why come alive on the three, and then the obvious backdoor flush misses there just doesn't seem like much you can be representing. Your line is extremely polarizing you have either a full house or a busted draw.

    Like they mentioned your limp rules out QQ and most likely 99.

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