What is your goal with bet sizing?

keasbeykeasbey Red Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
edited June 13 in Online Poker Hands
On the turn in this hand, i went with a 140% pot sized bet

https://play.globalpoker.com/poker-client/poker/10/hand/5b208817aa4b050aeac7d21a

my reason was to set up a pot sized value shove on the river. What goes into your thought process when picking bet sizing?

how would i compare this bet sizing with another size like pot or 1/2,1/4 pot? in CORE they talk about calling frequencies for certain bet sizings, but in real time i have no idea what these frequencies would be.... so i usually default to Splits typical suggestion of betting more in general and going for max value.



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  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,130 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 13
    your bet sizing should take into account several items:

    1.) is your V elastic or inelastic? meaning how wide will they call a big bet. If V will never relinquish top pair/good kicker, then a bigger bet is more favorable.
    2.) how would you bet your range/bluffs? If you had a flush draw or something like AQ that missed the KJX board but still had some equity, how would you bet that?
    3.) what is the effective stack to pot ratio? how soon can you get it all in? Can you get value for all 3 streets?
    4.) what type of hands do you hold? is this a one & done, 2-barrel or 3-barrel hand?
    5.) how do future run outs affect how the hand plays out? If a flush draw or straight draw or WORSE!... a flush & str8 draw... are on the board, future cards may kill your action or hurt your hand value. So, you may want to bet larger while both you and your opponent are happy putting chips in.
    6.) what's your table image/frequencies and can you exploit that? if you are perceived as spewy and a big bluffer, larger bets when you're nutted are more profitable. if you're perceived as tight, smaller bets are sometimes the only way to extract value from other players.
    7.) what kind of bets are "normal" for you or for the table? sticking with standard bet sizings for average boards helps hide your value & bluff range.... and makes you less exploitable.

    that said, me thinks you got lucky in this hand. Seems like you were only thinking about yourself, your hand and the value of your hand. You were too focused on what YOU wanted to accomplish and not what your V had/could have, nor about how you would play your range which includes hands that missed like QQ, AQ or even AXs or QXs. As you move up in levels, thinking about how your V's range interacts with this board is as important as how yours does.

    hope this helps..
  • keasbeykeasbey Red Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    edited June 13
    Hey thanks for the reply.. i think i ran briefly though some of those points but ill be honest.. only having 20-30 seconds to make a decision makes it hard for me to fully analyze real time since i am new player. But some hand history review wouldnt hurt. here it goes

    1. Just from playing it feels like the player pool are generally more on the inelastic side... especially when chasing draws. Bets from 1/3 Pot - 1.5 pot seem to get the same amount of calls most of the time. Players frequently call pot sized turn bets when on a draw, then i find out when their draw hits on the river and i value own myself.

    2. If i had High equity bluffs id probably end up betting 3/4pot to pot, but not sure i would overbet like i did in this hand. i realize this creates a flaw in the strategy, but knowing that maybe i can mix in some high equity bluffs into my overbet range, such as AQhh or AThh. That would be 2 combos of bluffs vs 6 combos of sets (88,JJ) which seems unbalanced. From early position i dont see how many more bluffs i could add to this bet, given the inelastic calling frequencies. With hands like AQo or AQccddss i would probably bet lower, like 1/2 pot.

    3. Flop SPR is in the 'very deep' category meaning its difficult to get stacks in before the river. Given my hand, i could probably go for 3 streets of value on most run outs.

    5. Hand doesnt like flush draws, but does have some extra equity if we improve to a boat when they improve to a flush

    6. tight preflop but active postflop. i try to bet with 1% frequencies, which means i am betting often. and usually semibluffing draws. i think Villain in the hand put me on a draw and wanted to make me fold out my equity with his turn shove.

    7. normal bet size is around 2/3 pot on average.

    In the 30 seconds i used to make the decision, i considered V's opening range and flop continue range. My assumption is that this player pool is very wide preflop but usually plays logically post flop and dumps most of their garbage hands on the flop . I also assumed that villain was inelastic when drawing, even as an error.

    I estimated in real that he had more of his range that could call a 1.4pot over bet, and using flopzilla estimation looks mostly correct:

    67 combos that would call overbet, including Flushdraw, OESD, Gutshots, 2P, and set of 8.

    51 combos of Top pair (assuming fold to overbet, but call 2/3bet)

    So if i were to analyze the outright EV of the bet, it would be:

    they call 54% of the time i bet 5 , and i win 83% when called = .46(3.3)+.83(8.3)-.17(5) = EV of 7.55
    they call 95% of the time i bet 2, and i win 90% when called= .95(3.3)+.9(5.3)-.1(2) = EV of 7.7

    Which means that a 2/3 bet is more EV in this spot. sorry for the long reply but it was helpful to work through the hand and if any of it looks wrong id be happy to hear why.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,130 ✭✭✭✭✭
    you're on the right track...
    keasbey wrote: »
    i think i ran briefly though some of those points but ill be honest.. only having 20-30 seconds to make a decision makes it hard for me to fully analyze real time since i am new player.

    THIS is why we do the work off the table. Knowing how we will proceed and whether or not we're betting or check/raising allows us more time to consider our bet sizing.
    Since each individual is different - sometimes we'll use a GTO bet size - other times a more exploitative size.

    long replies are good. that's how you learn more about your thought process... and how you can find leaks.

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