I folded my Aces. Nit move or good decision?

MattPMattP Red Chipper Posts: 86 ✭✭
Playing $1/$3 NLHE at MGM National Harbor. I have about $300. The villain in the hand has me covered. He's a chatty, middle-aged Asian guy. Dresses like an off-duty lawyer. He's been aggressive for the last hour so that I've been able to observe him. Seems to love to chase flush draws at almost any price. Obviously loose preflop but hasn't shown any crazy bluffs or wild moves yet. I've been card dead for a while, so I've not played many hands, but the ones I have I've played aggressively. No limping.

Under the gun with :As :Ac. One limper to me. I raise to $15. Two callers.

(Pot: $46)
Flop: :Js :6s :7d.

I bet $30. Villain calls.


(Pot $106)
Turn: :7s
I bet $60. Villain raises to $150.

Pot is now $316 and I have about $195 left. If I call the $90 raise, I'd only have about $100 left. So it seems like fold/shove time, right? My loose sense of his range in the fog of the moment was that he could be playing this with any two spades, some combo draws of suited connectors, TT-QQ, 77, 66, 7x, Jx... maybe some air? I'm holding the Ace of spades, which blocks some of those flush combos. And gives me a redraw to the nut flush, but not great odds to hit it. And I doubt he folds here to $100 more with trips or a flush.

All that said, I'm always mindful of Ed Miller's "Don't Pay People Off" chapter of "The Course," (especially as it pertains to typical casino 1/3 games) and given my lack of evidence that this guy is capable of a big bluff, my guess is that the possibility of him holding spades, a 7, JJ, or 66 is a lot more likely than the other speculative stuff. My overpair is good, but not great here.

So after a long tank, I fold... Good move, bad move, or horrible move?


Comments

  • Ben GunnBen Gunn Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    An aggressive player would probably raise JJ 66 or 77 on the flop, so I think we can discount those. That makes our flush outs good. Assuming he's holding a flush we have 7 of them, plus 2 aces to give us the 2nd nuts, plus 2 7's for the weird runout boat gives us an optimistic 20% equity. We're being offered 90 to win 406, so we need 22% equity to call based on straight odds. Very close.

    How would he react to a flat/shove line if a spade came out? What if it was an A? Do we ever have the implied odds to make up that 2% gap?

    It's close either way. If villain is ever bluffing then it is a mandatory call, but if you're confident he is not then folding is fine.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,699 ✭✭✭✭
    I don't understand. Is Villain aggro (=betting often, with middle-ish value and lot of bluff) or is he sticky straightforward (=paying ok-draws too much and then pushing when he hits) ?

    Your pot odds are 90/406 = 22.16%. But you only have 100 for river play, and it doesn't make sens to call turn and fold river - and I don't expect V to raise turn to fold river (maybe with nut FD, but you have :AS: , so impossible) . Hence your odds shall include your 100 left 190/606 or 31.35%.

    What is hard is to guess if Villain is on 7X or made flush.
    - Against 7X (77, A7s, 97s, 87s, 76s) and 66, Hero has 13.6% equity
    - Against made flush Hero has 25% equity
    - Against a mixed range of both, Hero has ~17.5% equity.

    So without bluff / draw, you can't call.
    But what are these? Does he hit the raise with like 9d8d ? QsJh ? Worst: since we have :SPADE: , we can't put him on AsXx spazz.

    I'd fold to the turn raise EXCEPT if I've record on him using scary cards to bluff.

    Shoving has IMHO 0 fold equity.


    post-scriptum 1
    MattP wrote: »
    My loose sense of his range in the fog of the moment was that he could be playing this with any two spades, some combo draws of suited connectors, TT-QQ, 77, 66, 7x, Jx... maybe some air?
    2 :SPADE: is a flush. Combo draws are... flushes ? QQ isn't here bc no 3bet. JJ unlikely, but we are as bad as against 66. TT is too weak to raise (even TsTx is a very weak FD).

    So... where are the draw except pure air ? And would he flop call with air ?

    post-scriptum 2
    MattP wrote: »
    Under the gun with :As :Ac. One limper to me. I raise to $15. Two callers.
    If you are UTG, then it's impossible for someone to limp before you act :')
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Under the gun with :As :Ac. One limper to me. I raise to $15. Two callers.

    @MattP are you counting the BB as a limper since your UTG?

    What is the position of the limper?
    What are the positions of the callers?

    What range are you raising preflop from EP?
    If you are folding in this spot your better off going for a check raise on the flop or betting flop and check calling turn and river.

    As played your too high up in your range to actually fold. I am calling the raise and calling basically any river besides a :JD:
  • MattPMattP Red Chipper Posts: 86 ✭✭
    edited June 14
    Combo draws are... flushes ? QQ isn't here bc no 3bet. JJ unlikely, but we are as bad as against 66. TT is too weak to raise (even TsTx is a very weak FD).

    Yeah, what I mean there is someone with Jx and a spade... or maybe 9-10 with a spade. Not great hands, but I've seen people go aggro with worse.
    MattP wrote: »
    Under the gun with :As :Ac. One limper to me. I raise to $15. Two callers.
    If you are UTG, then it's impossible for someone to limp before you act :')

    Whoops. Yep, error in my write-up! I was UTG. Only the blinds in front of me. Sorry...
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think check calling turn and river are probably best. As played I would call the raise because villain may bluff with hands like AJ afraid of 4th spade or trying to freeze the action with KsJx, QsJx. How many flushes and 7x can villain actually have here?

    87s (2 combos),
    A7s (2 combos),
    9s8s, Ts9s, QsTs, KsQs, (4 combos)
    66 (3 combos).

    Bluffs
    KsJx (3 combos)
    QsJx (3 combos)
    AJo/s (12 combos)

    I can't find a fold. If you fold here you are literally folding everything but JJ, 77, 66, AsKs-AsQs, KsQs, so you only continue with 10 combos in your range.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,699 ✭✭✭✭
    @Austin : I think you're waaaaaay too optimitic think that Villain can call flop and raise turn with TPTK without :SPADE: redraw.
    I but agree V making such if it was a stab or if V was c-betting.
    Austin wrote: »
    I can't find a fold. If you fold here you are literally folding everything but JJ, 77, 66, AsKs-AsQs, KsQs, so you only continue with 10 combos in your range.

    I've but more flushes here: A2s-A5s, KTs, QTs, T9s, 98s. Plus K9s and some lighter suited connectors or gappers if I think it's profitable. (Yeah, I know I should open fewer SC from UTG, but that my choice and strategy.)

    On the turn, I think I'd c-bet 33 combos or 27% of my range: . This :7S: isn't great at all for us. I'm too much value oriented, but considering the turn card and usual player pool, I think it's ok.
    3kiu1m78pqsy.png
    turn c-bet range

    Once raised, I'd continue with 21 combos: quads (1), boats (8) and flushes (12, incl. 6 nut flushes).

    Folding 12 combos out of 33 - 1/3 of the range - is ok and nothing to be abused. Which include folding AA with As - calling ONLY if pot odds allow nut FD OR if strong intel Villain is able to raise KsJx-ish in such way.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    @Austin : I think you're waaaaaay too optimitic think that Villain can call flop and raise turn with TPTK without :SPADE: redraw.
    I but agree V making such if it was a stab or if V was c-betting.
    Austin wrote: »
    I can't find a fold. If you fold here you are literally folding everything but JJ, 77, 66, AsKs-AsQs, KsQs, so you only continue with 10 combos in your range.

    I've but more flushes here: A2s-A5s, KTs, QTs, T9s, 98s. Plus K9s and some lighter suited connectors or gappers if I think it's profitable. (Yeah, I know I should open fewer SC from UTG, but that my choice and strategy.)

    On the turn, I think I'd c-bet 33 combos or 27% of my range: . This :7S: isn't great at all for us. I'm too much value oriented, but considering the turn card and usual player pool, I think it's ok.
    3kiu1m78pqsy.png
    turn c-bet range

    Once raised, I'd continue with 21 combos: quads (1), boats (8) and flushes (12, incl. 6 nut flushes).

    Folding 12 combos out of 33 - 1/3 of the range - is ok and nothing to be abused. Which include folding AA with As - calling ONLY if pot odds allow nut FD OR if strong intel Villain is able to raise KsJx-ish in such way.

    Guess it all depends on how wide Hero is opening from UTG. Most of these hands will not be profitable at low stakes, short stack, oop, not much FE, MW, etc. I'm sure opening 5bb UTG with A5s-A2s, 76s-J10s, 22-77, KJo, AJo, Is probably a leak.

    How comfortable are you with these hands when you usually get 2-3 callers, which brings the SPR to 4-6 range. Some times I will open these hands, but usually its better to open smaller imo 2bb-4bb, so you have a higher SPR. 4bb seems just as inelastic as 5bb. Making it something like $7-$11 with lower part of the range and $15 with higher part of the range.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,699 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Guess it all depends on how wide Hero is opening from UTG. Most of these hands will not be profitable at low stakes, short stack, oop, not much FE, MW, etc. I'm sure opening 5bb UTG with A5s-A2s, 76s-J10s, 22-77, KJo, AJo, Is probably a leak.

    It's a leak only if it's an open without strategy and planning ahead.

    But I agree, this is a rather loose range which may be difficult to handle postlfop / make a profit with. Most pros and coaches would advocate to avoid such hands without a proper strategy and enough experiences
    Austin wrote: »
    How comfortable are you with these hands when you usually get 2-3 callers, which brings the SPR to 4-6 range.
    I'm very comfortable. It is my casual postflop situation.

    I then have a standard rather pretty aggro postflop strategy (tend to follow the 70% c-bet rule-of-thumb by Ed Miller; I know it weakens my checking line, but I don't try to be balanced by doing so - I'd play differently against smart players). I'll then adjust my bet sizings and my line, mostly based on my goal (V calling or folding), Villain's profile, SPR and board texture.
    Austin wrote: »
    Some times I will open these hands, but usually its better to open smaller imo 2bb-4bb, so you have a higher SPR. 4bb seems just as inelastic as 5bb. Making it something like $7-$11 with lower part of the range and $15 with higher part of the range.
    If the whole table is unstudied and not reg, I think it's ok as an exploitative open play.

    But facing one or several Villains who observe, understand and adapt, and you will be easily in a world of pain as you give too much info. Yes, they aren't many of them on 1/2$ tables, but even 1 may punish you when he has position - a situation hard to control if you're EP/MP.

    I think only 2 kind of open-bet sizing are good preflop:
    - either always use the same sizing
    - decrease the sizing in LP (fewer Villains before stealing either position or the blinds)
  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 559 ✭✭✭
    The reason this spot feels gross is because you expose your remaining stack with the turn bet on a card which typically helps your opponent more than you. Routinely ignoring leverage with the middle of your range is going to burn money. Like austin said, i think you should be checking turn with the intention of crai or planning to bluffcatch the rest of the way. Both options are viable pending opponents profile.
  • stumhstumh Red Chipper Posts: 83 ✭✭
    Turn bet isn't great if you are planning on folding, for the reason @Wiki_Leaks says.

    I personally don't think villain should have too many boats in his range given stack sizes. He could call your turn bet and have a PS shove otr. Maybe I put too much stock in people thinking raising here with stack sizes should never be nutted (obviously in theory people should raise boats here for balance).

    I'd just call and c/c the river (Jack would be gross). Would be awful if villain somehow had :KS: :JD: here though (which perhaps an aggro opponent could show up with. That's one hand you can value shove turn against and you might miss this opportunity.
  • pocket22duecespocket22dueces Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
    I don't think that he holds full houses because he would probably raise you on the flop, meaning that your flush draw is still live in my opinion.

    He may be a player that raises scary turns quite often.

    In any case, I don't think that folding is a bad desicion either way unless he is a very aggresive player. In this case you should call him off (without raising! No fold equity)
  • TWRTWR ChicagoRed Chipper Posts: 14 ✭✭
    I don’t share the concerns of others about bet/folding. It’s just an exploit, based on what you think V is capable of doing.

    I think you can bet and get called by worse by many opponents.
    I think against some of these opponents you are well behind here when raised.

    Without any evidence that villain is capable of running a bluff like this or that they overvalue pair+ draws, a fold is perfectly defensible. Against some players I know, I’d break my arms trying to get my chips in the middle.

    Maybe that’s a cop out.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file