Crazy hand, did i approach it the right way?

keasbeykeasbey Red Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
edited June 2018 in Online Poker Hands
https://play.globalpoker.com/poker-client/poker/10/hand/5b247edcaa4b050aeac99d4b

Preflop - was planning on folding to the 3 bet, but once everyone called i felt i had enough direct and implied odds to go for a set mine. I was also closing the action... i dont think i would have called with certain players behind.

Postflop - given the preflop action, i felt like i was up against some mid rage overpairs like TT-QQ, straight draws, or 2 pair like 87. I felt like higher set just wasnt that likely as i would not expect 88 or 77 to call a 3 bet with players left to act. Didnt have specific info, but the player pool itself loves to overplay flopped overpairs. Given 3-1 odds with a set on the flop, the call seemed like a no-brainer.

Turns out all my analysis was wrong and i was in for Lord Gamblor's Wild Ride. Not really sure theres any useful info to be found analyzing these kind of bingo hands

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,312 ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 2018
    Try to answer it yourself !

    (If it's an online game, where are the HUD stat?)
    keasbey wrote: »
    Preflop - was planning on folding to the 3 bet, but once everyone called i felt i had enough direct and implied odds to go for a set mine. I was also closing the action... i dont think i would have called with certain players behind
    On what range do you put BB ? Is he nitty 3betting QQ+? Wider TT+/AQ+ ? Lightly 99+/AJ+/KQ? Even wider?
    What does his 50BB stacks mean ? How does that impact his 3bet range?

    What about the 2 callers: Brodways? PP ? SC? AXs ? AXo ? And how are they capped ?

    Against these range (HU or MW), what's your equity with 55 ? What's you plan to make money postlfop?
    keasbey wrote: »
    Postflop - given the preflop action, i felt like i was up against some mid rage overpairs like TT-QQ, straight draws, or 2 pair like 87. I felt like higher set just wasnt that likely as i would not expect 88 or 77 to call a 3 bet with players left to act. Didnt have specific info, but the player pool itself loves to overplay flopped overpairs. Given 3-1 odds with a set on the flop, the call seemed like a no-brainer.
    Use full ranges and not "I think that 88 maybe not because..."

    Again, put BB c-bet on a range - based on the one you assign preflop. And with what hand are the 2 preflop callers ? What would they call or raise with ?

    And how does the SPR / MW impact this ?

    Against these ranges, how does 55 feel (equity) ?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,312 ✭✭✭✭
    Calling the 3bet is really "meh" because of the SPR. It's either you hit or lose 10BB. But...
    Pot odds (preflop, calling 3bet) are 1.7/8 or 21.25%. Which means we have to win the hand more often that when we solely make a set on flop (10.8%).
    Considering there will be a less than 1SPR with BB and ~2.2 SPR with EP and MP, hard to see how to maneuver and get the missing required equity.

    Now all comes back to preflop play. You're in SB, if you call BB has then the opportunity either to fold, call (wide bc pot odds) or squeeze. You have to think about that BEFORE calling the PFR of UTG+1.
    - If BB is rather passive, I could see a call. Going MW isn't really a problem, because with 55 against UTG+1 PFR range we kinda are only on set mining (with the right odds). BB has only 50BB, but 48BB into 8BB pot is deep enough to avoid flop shove fest.
    - If BB is rather aggro, I'd prefer either a fold or a squeeze. A fold because 55 isn't a great hand, and if BB squeeze, our range isn't great and we are totally OOP. A marginal hand without room for maneuver is better to fold. If Hero is BU it would be different. Or we could raise ourselves to iso UTG+1 (at least from BB). But we have to remember that UTG+1 has (should have) a rather tight range, so we need to be prepare to a) what to do if he 4bet and b) how do we do on the flop with UTG+1 and MP when we don't hit. I think it's way better to squeeze if UTG+1 has a significant gap between his opening range and his continuation to a 3bet range; if he never fold or 4bet often, then squeezing is meh and I'd rather fold it as well.

    ***
    Bottom line: considering we / I have 0 info about BB and UTG+1, I think I'd call/fold preflop. Out of the blue (live game experiences) I don't expect a squeeze often, so I can see a call. But then I don't know enough about UTG+1 to feel comfortable squeezing myself (if even needed/useful ? ), and I don't know how wide BB is 3betting to call OOP for a tiny MW SPR.

    I think you just got super duper lucky, but played it extremely badly preflop.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Seems completely fine. Call a small 3 bet in a four way pot, hit your set, and with such a low SPR your never folding.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    the original 3-bettor bets 2 with 7 behind.
    typically you want to get at least 10:1 on your money to set mine.
    you got lucky - but long-term, this is a losing play
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    kagey wrote: »
    the original 3-bettor bets 2 with 7 behind.
    typically you want to get at least 10:1 on your money to set mine.
    you got lucky - but long-term, this is a losing play

    Even 4 ways?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,312 ✭✭✭✭
    Yes. See my post
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    336ebrb2fu1w.png

    Hero is closing the action $1.70 to win $6.30. Hero getting 3.7 : 1 only needs 21% and assuming BB has QQ+ and likely stacks off with an over pair, Hero is calling 1.70 to win around $14.09 giving hero 8.28 to 1 so he has above the 7.5 : 1 he needs. Now you can also add in some extra implied odds vs the other two players.

    If it was HU i think we can fold, but still likely +EV or break even. If flop came 522 are the other players folding 77-JJ vs the BB shove? Dream flop but being set over set is unlikely.

    No reason to fold in this spot. Playing strictly for set value and do not need to maneuver postflop at all. Don't flop a set it's an easy fold. If flop comes 643, we can check and make a decision based on pot odds.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,312 ✭✭✭✭
    You but forget that when we hit the set (the 10.8% of the time) we still lose the pot sometimes...

    On one side BB (with an overpair) has still ~10% equity on flop against set of 5. So you don't always win the 14.09 HU.
    On the other side, you face UTG+1 (bet/call) with many PP - and surely better than 55 - which can "out set" you. Plus UTG+1 (bet/call) and MP (call/call) have many hands to get a straight or a flush. So don't forget that the 10.8% of the time we get a set, we are outdrawn.

    Even on this board, if you put "55" v. "66-JJ" (UTG+1) v. "55-88, 65-T9, 64-86" (loose MP) v. "AA" (ideal stack off for Hero against BB)
    ... you still have only 40% equity. Yes, ahead, but you still lose the whole pot a lot.

    So for me, it's a preflop fold.

    I' gladly hear other opinion that ours :)
  • keasbeykeasbey Red Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    edited June 2018
    Red wrote: »
    You but forget that when we hit the set (the 10.8% of the time) we still lose the pot sometimes...

    So for me, it's a preflop fold.

    I' gladly hear other opinion that ours :)

    I wanted badly to prove Red wrong but after trying to take into account all the variables it looks like Red ends up being correct. Here was my read and assumptions that led to the play. I had a note on this player that he loves to get stacks in with overpairs, and TPGK on most boards. given his preflop stack size, it seems like this was his general overall strategy

    First, 3 bets from all positions in these games are rare, and are very value heavy. JJ+, AK, AQ. So i felt the original set mine was a relatively safe play as i did not expect the BB to 3 bet often at all. considering your observations against preflop 3 bettor, here is my EV calculation just against the PF 3 Bettor:

    .892(-1.7) + .108[(.56(.47(.9(14.09)-.1(9.49))+.53(6.30)) + .11(.83(14.09)-.17(9.49))
    + .11(.83(.23(6.30)+.77(14.09))-.17(9.49) + .11(.83(.41(6.30)+.59(14.09))-.17(9.49)
    + .11(.83(.6(6.30)+.4(14.09))-.17(9.49)]

    = EV of $-0.55

    Explanation:

    89.2% we miss the flop, lose our $1.7 preflop call
    10.8% of the time, we will hit our set vs the range of JJ+, AK, AQ, assuming this 3 bet range.
    Within this range, AK, AQ represent 56% of combo, so i have to figure out how these combos will play on various flop textures vs the pocket pairs
    When holding AK or AQ ~47% of flops will contain an A, K or Q in some combination, and Villain is expect to shove the flop with AK, AQ
    TPTK hands have 2% equity and 2P AK AQ hands have 17% equity against a flopped set i just set an average of 10% equity across the whole range.
    So 90% of the time, he shoves and set holds, we win 14.09.
    10% of the time, he shoves and sucks out, we lose 9.49 (preflop call, plus V stack)
    53% of flops will miss A, K, & Q entirely, and V will shut down allowing us to only win the preflop pot. I wont analyze possible A K Q run outs because this is fucking complicated enough already
    Within Villains range, JJ-AA represent 44% of all combos
    Assuming V likes to shove overpairs on the flop...11% of his range will be AA
    ~83% of the time, AA will miss the set and not improve, hero wins $14.09
    ~17% of the time, AA will flop a better set, or draw out, and Hero loses $9.49
    KK represents 11% of all combos
    ~17% of the time, KK will flop a better set, or draw out and hero loses $9.49
    ~83% of the time, KK will miss a set and not improve... but
    on ~23% of the misses , A hits flop and V shuts down. We win $6.3.
    on ~77% of the misses, KK is an overpair and we win $14.09
    QQ represents 11% of all combos
    ~17% of the time, QQ will flop a better set, or draw out and hero loses $9.49
    ~83% of the time, QQwill miss a set and not improve... but
    on ~41% of the misses , A/K hits flop and V shuts down. We win $6.3.
    on ~59% of the misses, QQis an overpair and we win $14.09
    JJ represents 11% of all combos
    ~17% of the time, JJ will flop a better set, or draw out and hero loses $9.49
    ~83% of the time, JJ will miss a set and not improve... but
    on ~60% of the misses , A/K/Q hits flop and V shuts down. We win $6.3.
    on ~40% of the misses, JJ is an overpair and we win $14.09

    Funny that i spend my time doing these calculations yet i still play poker like a donk.

    I guess the lesson to be learned is that calling 3 bets with small pairs hoping to hit a set is a losing play, even if you know V will shove the flop as wide as TPGK + overs
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    kagey wrote: »
    the original 3-bettor bets 2 with 7 behind.
    typically you want to get at least 10:1 on your money to set mine.
    you got lucky - but long-term, this is a losing play

    Even 4 ways?

    as a rec/bingo player, feel free to call, cross your fingers and hope to hit.
    as a thinking poker player, this is a losing call.
    we don't know if V is raising with an overpair or AK/AQ.
    we don't know if V or others will continue on flop.
    so - EVEN if we hit, there's no guarantee that we're getting paid off
    and when we don't hit - we could be folding to V's AK c-bet on a J-high board.
    we're taking all the risks
    all in hopes of flopping a set and getting paid
    and as @Red pointed out - even if we hit our set, we can always be oversetted or
    run into a straight or flush... where we lose our stack
    calling here is a leak
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    55 has 39% equity against AQ+ JJ+. There is an overlay of $4 in the pot. If set minning is not porifitable in this spot, would shoving be profitable?

    Risking $10 to win $14?

    I'm still working on my poker math, but what if BB is squeezing with other hands like A5s-A2s?

    39% equity when called by AQ+ JJ+ is not small %. Does the $4 make up for the 11%?

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