KQs Short Stack Trouble

Baby_SharkBaby_Shark Red Chipper Posts: 49 ✭✭
Hero is CO with $230 carddead for a few orbits
Shortie is BU with $35 weaktight
Villain is SB with $300 laggy

MP1 limps
Hero has :Kd :Qd in the CO and makes it $15
BU calls
SB calls
MP1 calls

Flop ($60)
:9d :8h :6d

SB donks $20
BU is trying to beat me into the pot and is all in...
Hero calls

Turn ($120)
:2h
SB bets $75
Hero calls

River ($120 / $150)
:Kc
SB bets all in ($120 effective)
Hero?

On the Flop I'm thinking "Don't bluff a side pot".
On the River I'm thinking "No way this player bluffs a side pot". Visions of 98, T7, 75 danced through my head.
Tagged:

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Probably fold turn risking 75 to win 195 and might not have 9 clean outs.
  • Baby_SharkBaby_Shark Red Chipper Posts: 49 ✭✭
    You're thinking BU has the :Ad :Xd here a good percentage of the time? or the SB? I didn't think the SB would semibluff in an all-in pot; my only read on him was a few hands earlier when he limp-3betshoved A5o for his last $60, and said "I knew my ace was live and I had equity"... even though I labeled him as a "I know what I'm doing" (But you don't know what you're doing) player, I gave him credit for knowing not to bluff a dry sidepot on the turn.

    Or are you saying that one of them has a set a lot of the time here, and :8d :2d are reverse-implied flushes for me and full houses for villain?

    On the felt, I thought the turn was close, but I definitely thought I had 20% equity and had good implied odds. I'm interested to know your thought process there, Austin.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 20
    Baby_Shark wrote: »
    On the Flop I'm thinking "Don't bluff a side pot".
    On the River I'm thinking "No way this player bluffs a side pot". Visions of 98, T7, 75 danced through my head.

    1. BUT is irrelevant post-flop. You're never folding. If SB folds, then great. You're fine letting the run-out happen. If you and SB do get more action, then the side pot will be far larger than the main pot. So, just ignore the BUT once he has $20 behind.

    2. On the flop when SB donks into you for $20. Why didn't you raise?? And it's not a bluff -- it's a semi-bluff. I'm not trying to be semantic, but there is a world of difference there. (I also don't want to be presumptuous. If you were just typing quickly, then fine. If you do want me to post more about that difference, then I'm happy to do so, too.)

    3. On the river, you absolutely have to call. 100%. Why? Because, if you're calling the turn, then you need to call with the top of your range. And the rivered king is near the top of your range at that point. If you don't want to call the bet when the king hits, then you shouldn't have called the turn. Put it another way: your hand got there (not with the nuts, but it got there) -- and now you consider folding?? If you don't consider a king to have gotten there, then it's your turn decision that was flawed.

    That being said, if you did elect to flat-call on the flop, then I could see a turn raise. But, once you call the turn you can't fold out your equity. SB could easily have hands that the king beats (JJ?) or might be trying to bluff you off your hand, thinking that you're on a flush draw that missed.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    How much do you need to make on the river for 7 outs to be profitAble with implied odds? 7 outs cause 8 and 2 are not clean outs. Your calling 75 to win 195 getting 2.6:1 need 27% equity.

    Given you have about 15% equity if a diamond hits how likely is he to call with 9x?
  • Baby_SharkBaby_Shark Red Chipper Posts: 49 ✭✭
    1. BUT is irrelevant post-flop...

    3. On the flop when SB donks into you for $20. Why didn't you raise?? And it's not a bluff -- it's a semi-bluff. I'm not trying to be semantic, but there is a world of difference there.

    Hey moishetreats, I know semibluffing vs bluffing, but my thinking is still different from yours in this spot, and I want to know more about what you are suggesting here (because I think you're likely right, as I hate everything about this hand!)

    If I go for the semi-bluff and raise here to $100, The SB may fold, but I have a read on BUT that he will happily call all in for the $20, so I have 0% fold equity in the main pot, and some fold equity in the $0 sidepot. Now I'm forced to see if the runout helps me or not vs BUT, so the semi-bluf isn't a bluff at all, it's more of a semi-valuebet. Therefore, why not play slower and wait for the board to help me? Also, my draw is basically to the nuts, so I'm happy to have more passengers, and don't want to shut the SB out of future action.

    However, what if my draw is worth valuebetting on the flop? Suppose it's :Jd :Td instead, giving me FD+OESD? Now I have 50% + equity vs overpair and huge equity vs TPTK. When are you no longer bluffing a dry sidepot?

    I'm rambling a bit. Please forgive me. I'm trying to "burn my poker books", which for me means eliminating all of the voices in my head, that tell me to do X in Y spot, and start making all my own decisions.

    As you say, I absolutely have to call river. On the felt, I made the mistake of crediting immense strength to SB's play, because I ascribed my own "dry side pot" thinking to him, thinking he had to have 2pair or better to play fast in that spot. Their logic is not our logic, especially since my logic may well be flawed (or super-nitty) in this kind of spot.
  • Baby_SharkBaby_Shark Red Chipper Posts: 49 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    How much do you need to make on the river for 7 outs to be profitAble with implied odds? 7 outs cause 8 and 2 are not clean outs. Your calling 75 to win 195 getting 2.6:1 need 27% equity.

    Given you have about 15% equity if a diamond hits how likely is he to call with 9x?


    If he has :9c :9h or some other set, I have 16% equity, and 100% of the money goes into the middle on any diamond. Given that 2/9 of these outs are unclean and I get stacked when I make flush and he makes a boat, this spot is super close.

    If he has :Ad :Xd , it's a cooler... but I still have 13.5% top pair draw equity.

    If he has :9c :random I have 34% equity and am getting more than enough immediate odds even if he folds to a jam when it comes a diamond.

    So I don't think a turn call is a slam dunk by any means. I think moishetreats is right, why not just jam the turn? Gives me fold equity to pick up his $75, even though I still have to hit to win the main pot.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭✭
    Baby_Shark wrote: »
    1. BUT is irrelevant post-flop...

    3. On the flop when SB donks into you for $20. Why didn't you raise?? And it's not a bluff -- it's a semi-bluff. I'm not trying to be semantic, but there is a world of difference there.

    Hey moishetreats, I know semibluffing vs bluffing, but my thinking is still different from yours in this spot, and I want to know more about what you are suggesting here (because I think you're likely right, as I hate everything about this hand!)

    If I go for the semi-bluff and raise here to $100, The SB may fold, but I have a read on BUT that he will happily call all in for the $20, so I have 0% fold equity in the main pot, and some fold equity in the $0 sidepot. Now I'm forced to see if the runout helps me or not vs BUT, so the semi-bluf isn't a bluff at all, it's more of a semi-valuebet. Therefore, why not play slower and wait for the board to help me? Also, my draw is basically to the nuts, so I'm happy to have more passengers, and don't want to shut the SB out of future action.

    However, what if my draw is worth valuebetting on the flop? Suppose it's :Jd :Td instead, giving me FD+OESD? Now I have 50% + equity vs overpair and huge equity vs TPTK. When are you no longer bluffing a dry sidepot?

    I'm rambling a bit. Please forgive me. I'm trying to "burn my poker books", which for me means eliminating all of the voices in my head, that tell me to do X in Y spot, and start making all my own decisions.

    As you say, I absolutely have to call river. On the felt, I made the mistake of crediting immense strength to SB's play, because I ascribed my own "dry side pot" thinking to him, thinking he had to have 2pair or better to play fast in that spot. Their logic is not our logic, especially since my logic may well be flawed (or super-nitty) in this kind of spot.

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

    I consider this a semi-bluff (and I consider semi-bluffs to be an incredibly powerful tool in the poker arsenal) because, even if you are called, then you have a LOT of ways to win by the river.

    You are correct that semi-bluffs work most effectively when they have fold equity, and there is no real fold equity against BUT. Still, let's tease it out: You semi-bluff raise to $100, BUT calls, and SB folds.

    The pot now has $120 in it (and you really only had to put in $20 more to stay in since your semi-bluff folded out SB). So, essentially, you need to beat BUT 1/6 times or more to make it profitable. Those are just about the best odds in poker. So, folding out SB is never a bad thing.

    In fact, folding out other players when you semi-bluff in general is never a bad thing. Semi-bluffs are NOT about realizing your equity in full when you are called. They are about applying pressure to a weaker range and folding out hands that are better than yours while giving you enough equity when you are called (and you are behind) to draw out on your opponent. If you're looking at semi-bluffs as a way to build a pot so that you can get paid off when you hit, then you're looking at them backwards, IMO. The ability to hit and win the bigger pot later is the protection for the fact that you're almost assuredly behind at the moment when you semi-bluff.

    Here's the other problem with calling: If and when the third diamond comes and you start betting, doesn't it look like a made flush? Pretty hard to get paid off... in which case you bet, SB folds, and you win the same $120. So, by flat-calling, you win $120 when your draw hits and/or have to put in more money on the turn (ugh!!!!) just to realize your equity all the way to river.

    By semi-bluffing on the flop, a fold still wins you the same $120, but you only have defeat one opponent and not two. And, if you're called, then your flush hitting will pay you faaaaaar more than if you wait to see if it hits and then try to get paid out later.

    Thoughts? Am I reading your questions and post correctly?

    Now we've both rambled :).
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,485 ✭✭✭✭
    Baby_Shark wrote: »
    1. BUT is irrelevant post-flop...

    3. On the flop when SB donks into you for $20. Why didn't you raise?? And it's not a bluff -- it's a semi-bluff. I'm not trying to be semantic, but there is a world of difference there.

    Hey moishetreats, I know semibluffing vs bluffing, but my thinking is still different from yours in this spot, and I want to know more about what you are suggesting here (because I think you're likely right, as I hate everything about this hand!)

    If I go for the semi-bluff and raise here to $100, The SB may fold, but I have a read on BUT that he will happily call all in for the $20, so I have 0% fold equity in the main pot, and some fold equity in the $0 sidepot. Now I'm forced to see if the runout helps me or not vs BUT, so the semi-bluf isn't a bluff at all, it's more of a semi-valuebet. Therefore, why not play slower and wait for the board to help me? Also, my draw is basically to the nuts, so I'm happy to have more passengers, and don't want to shut the SB out of future action.

    BU is never going to fold for the 20$ he still has. He could call very wide IMHO, even down to :AS: :JD:
    Against such a wide range, we are never folding. And we have a nice equity.
    That's why @moishetreats said BU is irrelevant postflop.

    All the question turns around SB and his small donkbet. You've to make assumption on his move: why does he donkbet (underbet) ? With what range? How he is going to react if we call or raise ?
    Does he try to look at how is his ~ :TH: :9S: hand ? To probe you having a great hand and make a "cheap fold" ? Or does he try to induce a raise with a monster like :9C: :8C: or :6H: :6S: ?
    This is something important to know, which you can have a good educated guess by observing (and remembering) the previous donkbet and bet sizings from this player.

    Personally, since SB is laggy, I'm going to raise and, if I get action, play for stacks (mostly on turn).

    ***
    Since you called down and got a lucky (and somehow hidden) TP AND no draw completed, you have to call as you've a great bluff catcher now.
  • Baby_SharkBaby_Shark Red Chipper Posts: 49 ✭✭
    Thanks Red. At the time I gave him credit for 0% bluffs due to the side pot situation. But that's dumb to say he's never bluffing, but I would still discount it by about 50%. Do I beat any value hands here?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,485 ✭✭✭✭
    Don't think in "value" or "bluff" ; assign a range based on all info about Villain, an compare your equity and pot odds to see if it's +EV.
  • Baby_SharkBaby_Shark Red Chipper Posts: 49 ✭✭
    Hand reading workshop here I come.

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