Autoprofit Situation on 4 heart board

PapaGiorgioPapaGiorgio Red Chipper Posts: 57 ✭✭
Watched a video last night where there was an autoprofit situation. While reviewing this hand, I think I may have missed one on the river.

1/2 Live game -- 7 handed (effective stacks about 250)
I'm MP with :Jd :Jc
UTG folds, I raise 8, HJ call, LJ call, BB call
F: :Th :7s :5h (pot 33)
BB checks, I b15, LJ call
T: :9h (pot 63)
I b25, LJ call
R: :3h (pot 113)
We both check
LJ showed :Ts :9s

LJ is a reg. He had about 400+ when I sat down, but he's been giving money back by limping/calling PF then folding. He has shown some aggression, but only if he had strong hands (sets+) or had the initiative.

I worked through range analysis. Based on my estimation of his PF range, I think he gets to the river with these combos:
Nut Flush – 8
2nd Nut Flush – 3
Weak Flush – 2
Set – 10
Two Pair -13

Of course, this analysis assumes he's calling flop and turn with his made hands and draws. If I bet the river, I assume that two pair would fold. That's 13/36 combos, or about 1/3 hands. A 1/2 pot bet should be autoprofit, correct? This autoprofit situation becomes even better if I change the assumptions of his range. So if I think he's going to raise 2 pair and sets on the flop, then two pair hands represent 11/25 hands. It seems like fold equity increases more if I think he would have raised nut flush draws.

Was this an autoprofit situation that I missed? And if so, what would have been a good size to bet? I think 75 would be large enough to get two pair to actually fold, yet it allows me to fold to a raise.

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I would eliminate some of the sets as they were to raise flop. Only two pair in the flop is 75s and T9s on the turn. I would include a few more weak flushes here

    7h6h, 8h6h, QhJh, Jh8h

    Given the fact you said Lj has been limp calling quite a bit may include some hands like Kh8h as well.

    As played I think your cbet is way too small. Would consider a check raise or a cbet of about $25.
  • PapaGiorgioPapaGiorgio Red Chipper Posts: 57 ✭✭
    Yes, I think sets are raising flop. I also think Tx, 7x, and 5x are calling flop cbet (I do not have many 5x or 7x combos are in his PF range), but I don't think they are calling on the turn. Tx might call the turn bet if it's part of a draw like AhTx, KhTx, QhTx, or JhTx.

    Cbet larger because hand is vulnerable and board is dynamic? How is the smaller turn bet? I felt like I could already be behind to the made flush, and non-nut flushes might raise the turn. So smaller bet allows me to get away from the hand with minimal investment.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Wouldn't checking allow you to get away with minimum investment as well?

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