Call or fold here? Stuck rec looking to > his game.

BrinxBrinx Red Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
Live 2/3 – Full Ring (10 Players).

Hero has $370 behind and is UTG.

Hero dealt :As :5s

Main V is a reg that I have seen within the poker room a fair bit so I know he spends a lot of time at the felt although I have never played at the same table with him.

Action is as follows:

H opens UTG to $20

4 callers ($85 pot) and the flop comes:

:7h :Ts :9s

SB checks

Hero checks

UTG3 (covers easily about 1.1k behind) bets $80 into an $85 pot

V4 in late position folds.

SB immediately shoves his entire stack in the middle (approx. $400 behind)

What action should Hero take here?

What range do you assign V who shoved in the SB?

What considerations should we take in a spot like this? Blockers + Pot Odds etc...

I am trying to develop the ability to think logically in these spots and to approach the situation with some kind method. So any seasoned players who would like to contribute to the process would be great.

Really appreciate all of the help. You guys are just great and this is a great group and just so valuable.

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,485 ✭✭✭✭
    Brinx wrote: »
    H opens UTG to $20

    4 callers ($85 pot) and the flop comes

    Here I really dislike your sizing. Either it's too big or too small.

    Too small? A big reason to bet/raise preflop is to isolate. If you still got 4 callers, then you didn't hit the pain threshold. Going in a big pot MW with a semi-bluff hand isn't what you want.
    Too big? If it's not possible to isolate and go HU or 3-way (like the pain threshold is way too expensive), then I'd rather use a small sizing. If betting 12$ or 20$ gives the same result, then why betting 20$ ?
    Brinx wrote: »
    :7h :Ts :9s

    SB checks

    Hero checks

    But why? You've hit what you were looking for: nut FD. Best you could hope with AX5 and X55 flops. You've a great hand to semi-bluff.

    I could see a check-raise tho, since the board is strongly connected and we are MW, as it has more FE than a c-bet on a board which doesn't belong to us that much.

    What was your plan by checking? (If it was to check-call, then you've to study more IMHO)
    Brinx wrote: »
    SB immediately shoves his entire stack in the middle (approx. $400 behind)

    What action should Hero take here?

    What range do you assign V who shoved in the SB?

    "Don't pay them off" is very often the right answer. So decision shall be made solely on EV.

    Your pot odds are (considering eff. stack 370 at the beginning of the hand):
    Direct pot odds = 350 / (350+350+80+85) = 350 / (865) = 40.46 %
    Note that if UTG+3 also comes along, Hero's pot odds are
    Indirect pot odds = 350 / (350+350+350+80) = 350/1130 = 30.97%

    Equity: if V has 2P, set or straight, your equity is only your 9 FD outs = 34.97% (But this could be lower if UTG+3 has 1 or 2 :SPADE: )

    Nota bene: I don't think SB would make such move without a strong made hand. Since you block nut FD, only 8X for OESD would give a good draw - but still vulnerable to FD. Also the 1/3 player pool tend to be unbalance in c-r ranges, very often with too many made hands (with some bad ones firing with weak hands or vulnerable hands as well, like TP; but here I don't think so because so many draws to face).

    So you can call +EV only if you've strong indication that UTG+3 is coming along.
    Still, this would be a high variance play as you'll lose the hand and your whole stack two third of the time.


    BOTTOM LINE

    Flop situation is ugly and difficult because of preflop actions.
    If you were able to isolate OR with a smaller open bet size (aka smaller pot), then this would be a much better and easier flop decision.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,202 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Your pot odds are (considering eff. stack 370 at the beginning of the hand):
    Direct pot odds = 350 / (350+350+80+85) = 350 / (865) = 40.46 %

    Red, this isn't meant personally, but I'm not sure why you ever got into this habit of calculating pot odds as equity percentage. Did you read this somewhere? It's just plain confusing, and technically wrong. I know we've had this argument before. If you're going to talk poker lingo, you should use the same language as everyone else.

    I understand what you're doing and why, but it's easier to calculate pot odds than equity percentages at the table, and just compare it to the odds for the outs you have. Equity percentages are obviously useful, but it's not pot odds.

    First of all, the action as stated is confusing. If there are 4 callers, then there is $105 in the pot. I'll assume he meant 3 callers.

    Hero has $265 at the time of the decision. There is $85 + $80 + $80 = $245 in the pot.
    Villain shoves, and so the pot odds are roughly 2:1 (slightly worse). (A pot sized bet or raise always gives you 2:1). $245 + $265 = $510. $510/$265 = <2:1. Since the odds of hitting a flush with 2 cards to come is 2:1 it's a borderline fold.

    That assumes the flush will win, and we can't assume that because of the chance that villain makes a boat here. You could count 7 outs instead of 9 outs, and with 2 cards to come you need 2.6:1. So that would require the third player calling as well, in which case you'd be getting about 3:1.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭✭
    I don't have much problem with the hand as-played. You know if $20 is a good pain-threshold bet or not. Might just be that you got a lot of riders this time.

    I also don't mind the check. It's a board that would generate a lot of calls were you to cbet and, even though you have the nut flush draw, being check-raised could be ugly. I'd be deferring to check-raising myself, to be sure, but that does require a flop check.

    So, as-played, I think that you're good.

    When SB raise/shoves, though, it's ugly for you. It smells a hell of a lot like a set to me. Given that SB has you covered, you can't even call trying to make some of it back against UTG3 in a side pot. If you were 100% sure that UTG3 were to call, then you might have the odds to come along for the ride.

    But, as is, I'd probably fold. Remember -- a semi-bluff hand is most powerful NOT because of the equity-when-called but rather because of the fold equity when being aggressive. The equity-when-called protects you. So, yeah, I'd be folding -- and feel thankful that I didn't cbet or shove into a set.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,485 ✭✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    Red wrote: »
    Your pot odds are (considering eff. stack 370 at the beginning of the hand):
    Direct pot odds = 350 / (350+350+80+85) = 350 / (865) = 40.46 %

    Red, this isn't meant personally, but I'm not sure why you ever got into this habit of calculating pot odds as equity percentage. Did you read this somewhere? It's just plain confusing, and technically wrong. I know we've had this argument before. If you're going to talk poker lingo, you should use the same language as everyone else.

    I understand what you're doing and why, but it's easier to calculate pot odds than equity percentages at the table, and just compare it to the odds for the outs you have. Equity percentages are obviously useful, but it's not pot odds.

    I'm just applying the pot odds : they told us how much equity we need to be +EV. Comes from multiple articles, books and videos. From the RCP free material (mostly in the embedded video): https://redchippoker.com/how-to-call-a-preflop-all-in-profitably/

    I think what's bugging you is that I use % instead of X:Y to present pot odds. Both are correct, it's just that I'm just more comfortable using % .

    Finally I agree: it's impossible to calculate our exact equity at the table. But that's why we study off table: to have the best educated guess possible :)
    jeffnc wrote: »
    First of all, the action as stated is confusing. If there are 4 callers, then there is $105 in the pot. I'll assume he meant 3 callers.

    Hero has $265 at the time of the decision. There is $85 + $80 + $80 = $245 in the pot.
    Villain shoves, and so the pot odds are roughly 2:1 (slightly worse). (A pot sized bet or raise always gives you 2:1). $245 + $265 = $510. $510/$265 = <2:1. Since the odds of hitting a flush with 2 cards to come is 2:1 it's a borderline fold.

    That assumes the flush will win, and we can't assume that because of the chance that villain makes a boat here. You could count 7 outs instead of 9 outs, and with 2 cards to come you need 2.6:1. So that would require the third player calling as well, in which case you'd be getting about 3:1.

    You're right: it's either 4 players (with 3 callers) or bigger pot. I didn't bug me since 85$ is correct for 4 players. I (agree to) assume it's 3 callers.

    Now you make a mistake: Hero doesn't have 265$ at the time of the decision. Hero's stack was 370$ at the beginning of the hand, bet 20$ preflop and checked flop. Hence H has 370-20 = 350$ at the moment of the shove decision.

    The 80$ flop bet came from UTG+3, right after Hero checked and before SB shoved.

    In the case of Hero did c-bet with 80 into the 85$ pot (nota bene: Hero would have 270$ left, not 265$), then I'd agree with your calculation. (But Hero checked)
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,202 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    I'm just applying the pot odds : they told us how much equity we need to be +EV. Comes from multiple articles, books and videos. From the RCP free material (mostly in the embedded video): https://redchippoker.com/how-to-call-a-preflop-all-in-profitably/

    I think what's bugging you is that I use % instead of X:Y to present pot odds. Both are correct, it's just that I'm just more comfortable using % .

    That video just proves what I've been saying. I'm not uncomfortable that you're using percentages, but the equity percent to call is not pot odds. You just confuse people when you do that. You've misunderstood what you saw. Pot odds are not percentages. He's converting them to make an equity calculation. He's not calling them pot odds. No one does that.
    Red wrote: »
    Now you make a mistake: Hero doesn't have 265$ at the time of the decision.

    I misread the action as hero's bet.

  • BrinxBrinx Red Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
    @Red @jeffnc @moishetreats - Just wanted to say thank-you for responding and for all the analysis. I have a full schedule and am pulling double shifts at work over the next three days, not to mention all of this ^^^^ is going to take me a little while to absorb. You guys have a game far beyond me. I will respond asap and it's going to take me at least a couple of days to absorb the content above. So will respond as best I can in due course. Thanks again guys, really appreciate it. Just so valuable.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,485 ✭✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    That video just proves what I've been saying. I'm not uncomfortable that you're using percentages, but the equity percent to call is not pot odds. You just confuse people when you do that. You've misunderstood what you saw. Pot odds are not percentages. He's converting them to make an equity calculation. He's not calling them pot odds. No one does that.

    But there is no difference between both. There are just 2 methods - ratio and percentage - for the same concept: pot odds.

    From ThePokerBank - pot odds
    Working out pot odds.

    There are two ways that you can work out pot odds in Texas Hold’em.
    1. Ratio method
    2. Percentage method
    Both of these methods provide the same results, so the one you decide to use is simply a matter of preference.

    Maybe using the percentage method is confusing to you and all that are so used using the ratio method. But on the other side, it's the same for me when I face a thread using the ratio method.
    Nonetheless, both are the same and can be easily converted.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,202 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Trust me, there is nothing confusing to me about percentages Red! I know exactly what's going on. I promise you you are doing nothing but confusing people by expressing pot odds as a percentage. You can find something on the internet to support whatever viewpoint you want, including that the earth is 6,000 years old. The whole point of pot odds is that is a ratio based number that directly compares the reward/risk to your chance of winning. Percentage does not do that, and is a different number used to calculate a different thing. It doesn't matter that you can convert them back and forth. You might as well use the same convention as everyone else or else as I said you are just confusing people, especially those just learning.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,485 ✭✭✭✭
    0.33 or 33% or 1:2 are the same. All poker websites, poker books and poker videos I read or watched about pot odds since I start studying poker - be it in French, German or English - explain and express pot odds in terms of ratio and percentage.
    The sole difference is that pot odds are more commonly used in terms of ratio in the US/North America and more commonly used in terms of percentage outside the US/in Europa.

    Now, if it's not the case, please show me any (serious) poker source which dismisses pot odds being expressed in terms of percentage or being (so) misleading/confusing that percentage shall not be used as pot odds.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,202 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    0.33 or 33% or 1:2 are the same.

    See? You've gotten it wrong already. You're trying to express 2 different things. One corresponds to the other. If you don't understand the different between "same" and "corresponds" then you should look it up.

    33% corresponds to 2:1. ~33% is the "same" as 1/3

    You do what you want.

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,202 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If that doesn't convince you, think of it this way.

    1/4 is a number. .25 is a number. They're the same number and they're equal. You could even go so far as to say 25% is the same number. Even though they technically mean different things in different contexts, I wouldn't argue if you wanted to call them the same thing.

    "Pot odds" isn't even a number. It's 2 numbers with a colon in between. Unlike a slash or a dot, a colon has no mathematical meaning. It's a ratio of reward to risk. If the pot odds were 3:1, then even if it were a number, the number would be 3, not .25. 3 and .25 aren't even close to being the same number.

    1/4 and .25 are the same thing. 3 and .25 are not the same thing.
  • SicSemperSicSemper Red Chipper Posts: 96 ✭✭
    What range do you assign V who shoved in the SB?

    I'm typically expecting SB to be sitting on 2p or a set here. If they have a made straight and play scared, or an overpair and play optimistic, those could be included. (Though KK and AA are unlikely for obvious reasons.) Perhaps we could see :Qs :Js , :Qs :8s , :Js :7s or :Ks :Qs (or some related FD/gutter or pair-and-draw one-combo hands), and SB is ripping it with a decent chunk of equity on the semi. But I'd expect to see T9, 77, TT or 99 the majority of the time.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    ix9q49uo8i82.png

    with 123bb stacks imo opening 2x the pot is a leak in a live game. I know Snowie will open it up, but that's with people calling with the correct ranges (tighter side). Live games have so much MW dynamics I would rather limp or open 2bb with this hand. You want to be involved in pots and have more opportunities to stack the fun players and flop 2 pair or better with this type of hand. In the pits you will be out of position usually against 2-3 players as you were here and be put in many tough spots with an SPR of 4-5 MW.

    Reasoning for not using 'pain threshold' in this spot is because most of the money will be made postflop. Hero will also not face many 3 bets. If you open to say $10 in this spot (3bb) you will likely face the same 3 callers because they are just playing their hand. Flop ($43) 7h Ts 9s with an SPR of 8+. This is a much more favorable situation where you are not putting your stack at risk every time. I find playing exploitable poker the most profitable. You can still open $20 with JJ+ AK if you want and $10 with your small pairs and J10s type hands that you want to mix into your game. Be aware of regs who pay attention to this stuff. From my experience they do not adapt well or try and punish weak ranges. They continue to only 3 bet with JJ+ whether you open $10 or $20.

    Now lets talk about postflop. Calling here despite all the pot odds and equities above is a clear leak. I put it into Snowie just to see how big of a leak it actually is. Snowie has it as -$183 in this spot whenever you call. You will be faced with many sets, straights, combo draws and your equity will actually only be around 20-25% three ways. Meaning you will need better than 3:1 to make a profitable call. Now the question is if they both call all in what are your odds?

    pot ($85) + $350 all in + $350 all in (assuming both come a long). You are risking $350 to win $785 getting 2.24 : 1 you need at least 31% equity to continue and it is clearly a losing play.

    Changing the hands around a bit.
    77 = -EV
    99 = break even basically at -.01
    TT = (EV +69)
    QsJs = (EV +.01)
    AsJs = (EV -26)
    8s7s = (EV +.01)

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