Getting it all in preflop with AA for > 250 BB

DanielGDanielG Caribbean NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
How do you feel getting it all in preflop with AA for over 250 BB? I get that AA is basically the nuts preflop, but 7% (or more) of the time you will get sucked out on. How do you feel risking your tournament life preflop in just one hand (this has nothing to do with playing good or bad poker, but more with taking a calculated risk vs reward play)
Tagged:

Comments

  • DanielGDanielG Caribbean NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
    edited July 2018
    I am and have done it multiple times, but for a certain amount of BB the variance must be too high to be profitable, right?

    I'm talking about a small pot and a massive 3 or 4bet shove.
  • DanielGDanielG Caribbean NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
    edited July 2018

    All of good poker is taking calculated risk vs reward plays.

    Do you not want to continue playing the tournament with 500BBs 93% of the time?

    There are rare ICM considerations here but no, it's ludicrous to be even considering folding AA pre-flop.

    I can get behind folding due to ICM implications. However, take a hand like TJs for example, which has ~21% equity against AA. So on average 1 out of 5 times you will lose all of your chips. There must be an SPR ratio where the risk is just not worth the reward anymore?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭


    There is a hand I played a couple weeks ago where I had KK
    Preflop I open $10 EP
    1 MP caller
    Btn 3bet to 30
    I 4bet to 120
    Mp folded
    Btn 5bet to 220 "we can get all in if you want"
    Hero 6bet all in $740 effective
    Btn called A2o
    Board Axxxx GG

    All in preflop for 247bb with 71% equity I have no problem with this. Run this situation 100 times and how much will you make? Your 71% to win roughly $1500.

    You get $1,065 of the pot long run.

    There is no such thing as SPR being so high that you fold aces preflop.

    There is such a thing as playing with your entire bankroll on the table and your bills in jeopardy if you lose the pot.
    So if you sat at a table where every player shoved every hand for 300BBs, and you were only dealt pocket aces, you would fold every hand.

    Take this as an example where AA will only win 20% of the time vs 8 players. There will be 2700bb in the middle and you get 540bb long run. Say you lose 4 straight times in this spot and your down 1200bb to start your session, then you win your 5th. Now your up 1200bb.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 1,757 -
    DanielG wrote: »

    All of good poker is taking calculated risk vs reward plays.

    Do you not want to continue playing the tournament with 500BBs 93% of the time?

    There are rare ICM considerations here but no, it's ludicrous to be even considering folding AA pre-flop.

    I can get behind folding due to ICM implications. However, take a hand like TJs for example, which has ~21% equity against AA. So on average 1 out of 5 times you will lose all of your chips. There must be an SPR ratio where the risk is just not worth the reward anymore?

    When you are guaranteed to be the favorite there is no SPR or other stack depth consideration that makes folding AA correct. The only time you should ever fold AA pre is in pathological ICM situations. Or if you're Tommy Angelo doing it just to see what it feels like.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • BourbonizeBourbonize Red Chipper Posts: 43 ✭✭
    If you fold AA preflop in a tournament, you're not trying to win. You're playing not to lose.
  • Zero CoolZero Cool Red Chipper Posts: 270 ✭✭✭
    DanielG wrote: »
    I am and have done it multiple times, but for a certain amount of BB the variance must be too high to be profitable, right?

    I'm talking about a small pot and a massive 3 or 4bet shove.

    No, variance is the odds of something happening over time and only takes into account pot odds and the equity of your hand and since preflop you can never get worse odds then 2:1 you will never need more then 50% equity to call and AA will always have at least 77.5% equity heads up.

    Ex.
    SB post .5bb
    BB post 1bb
    UTG shoves for 1000bb

    Here the pot is 1001.5bb and we have to call 1000bb to win 2001.5bb meaning we need 49.96%. No matter how large the bet is you will never get to 50%. If you add multiple players the winning odds go down but your pot odds go up.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭✭
    Cash game you should always do it. Tournaments I don't know enough about, I suppose ICM considerations. If your afraid to "losing" 500 BBs in a 5 way all-in prelfop, then your under rolled.
    If I said to you "hey, lets roll a dice, you get #1-4, I get 5 and 6. But we are playing 100k a roll." That's an amazing deal. But would you do it? Many wouldn't because the risk of ruin is too high for them. If I roll lucky twice, I bankrupt you potentially. But, if we drop that down to say...$10 a roll...well, you could retire just sitting there and rolling dice all day.
  • ChipFluxChipFlux Red Chipper Posts: 89 ✭✭
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    Cash game you should always do it. Tournaments I don't know enough about, I suppose ICM considerations. If your afraid to "losing" 500 BBs in a 5 way all-in prelfop, then your under rolled.
    If I said to you "hey, lets roll a dice, you get #1-4, I get 5 and 6. But we are playing 100k a roll." That's an amazing deal. But would you do it? Many wouldn't because the risk of ruin is too high for them. If I roll lucky twice, I bankrupt you potentially. But, if we drop that down to say...$10 a roll...well, you could retire just sitting there and rolling dice all day.

    You could retire and hire someone to roll the dice for you.
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,684 -
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    If I said to you "hey, lets roll a dice, you get #1-4, I get 5 and 6. But we are playing 100k a roll." That's an amazing deal. But would you do it? Many wouldn't because the risk of ruin is too high for them.

    In these scenarios, I usually think:

    Gimme thirty minutes to find backers and we aren't using your dice. Wanna make it 200k?

    The more interesting question to me is how fast could I raise $100k for this bet? Shave a little off the top for my college fund and I suspect I am freerolling this after an hour of frantic tweets and phone calls.

    Lol
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Doug Hull wrote: »
    The more interesting question to me is how fast could I raise $100k for this bet? Shave a little off the top for my college fund and I suspect I am freerolling this after an hour of frantic tweets and phone calls.

    Hah!! :)
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,538 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DanielG wrote: »
    I can get behind folding due to ICM implications. However, take a hand like TJs for example, which has ~21% equity against AA. So on average 1 out of 5 times you will lose all of your chips. There must be an SPR ratio where the risk is just not worth the reward anymore?

    There seems to be some confusion about this hand. We are talking about preflop equities and probabilities. SPR has nothing to do with it. Ignoring for a minute that "SPR ratio" is redundant to begin with, it can never change because it's always exactly 0.

    The only consideration here is whether you want to risk your tournament life with one huge pot, or play many many smaller pots. To be fair, there is something to be said for factoring in skill many times over rather than relying on massive equity and the roll of the dice to pull you through. Having said that, if you look at what kind of parlay you need to pull off to go really deep in a tournament anyway, which is required to profit well because of the skewed payout structure, sticking a lot of money in with super high equity is almost surely a good thing to do.

    So to answer your question, how do I feel about sticking it in with 250BB, I feel OK about it, just not as good as sticking it in with 1,000BB.

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,538 ✭✭✭✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    The only time you should ever fold AA pre is in pathological ICM situations.

    There are some obvious satellite scenarios where you should fold AA, if you call that ICM.

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,538 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 2018
    Zero Cool wrote: »
    No, variance is the odds of something happening over time and only takes into account pot odds and the equity of your hand and since preflop you can never get worse odds then 2:1 you will never need more then 50% equity to call and AA will always have at least 77.5% equity heads up.

    Ex.
    SB post .5bb
    BB post 1bb
    UTG shoves for 1000bb

    Here the pot is 1001.5bb and we have to call 1000bb to win 2001.5bb meaning we need 49.96%. No matter how large the bet is you will never get to 50%.

    A little confused on the numbers here. The fact is you will never get worse odds than 1:1 (and technically cannot quite get as bad as 1:1 because of blinds/antes, but can be very close to 1:1). So here the pot is 1001.5 and we have to call 1000 to win 1001.5. You're right that we can never quite get to 50%. I'm not going to look up the 77.5% number but assuming you're, then no matter how much they bet we're never going to be anywhere near as low as 50% so we're always safe no matter how the preflop betting went down.
  • magicpigmagicpig Red Chipper Posts: 88 ✭✭
    edited March 5
    DanielG wrote: »
    How do you feel getting it all in preflop with AA for over 250 BB? I get that AA is basically the nuts preflop, but 7% (or more) of the time you will get sucked out on. How do you feel risking your tournament life preflop in just one hand (this has nothing to do with playing good or bad poker, but more with taking a calculated risk vs reward play)

    First hand of a tournament I would be happy to get all of my chips in with AA vs any number of people.

    If I knew 8 or 9 other people would go all in with me.. great.

    And if you lose? Time has value: Rebuy, cash game, something fun, or go back to bed Zzz...

    * yes... if someone were an insane Houdini-like favorite over the field... blah, blah.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file