LAG Triple Barreling On Runner Runner Overcards

AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
$0.50 NL - Holdem - 9 players

BB: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 15.82, PFR: 13.40, 3Bet Preflop: 4.56, Hands: 2,415)
UTG: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 17.23, PFR: 14.18, 3Bet Preflop: 7.33, Hands: 2,635)
UTG+1: 158.58 BB (VPIP: 21.09, PFR: 4.69, 3Bet Preflop: 2.50, Hands: 131)
MP: 110.22 BB (VPIP: 21.09, PFR: 16.76, 3Bet Preflop: 6.47, Hands: 554)
MP+1: 216.46 BB (VPIP: 30.02, PFR: 10.85, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 573)
MP+2: 157.18 BB (VPIP: 12.78, PFR: 11.17, 3Bet Preflop: 5.38, Hands: 3,503)
CO: 101 BB (VPIP: 17.45, PFR: 13.67, 3Bet Preflop: 8.24, Hands: 1,349)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 132.04 BB (VPIP: 15.44, PFR: 12.95, 3Bet Preflop: 5.60, Hands: 4,621)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has :7D: :6D:

fold, fold, MP raises to 3.5 BB, MP+1 calls 3.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 3.5 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (12 BB, 3 players) :3D: :6H: :2H:
MP bets 10 BB, fold, Hero calls 10 BB

Turn: (32 BB, 2 players) :QC:
MP bets 20 BB, Hero calls 20 BB

River: (72 BB, 2 players) :KC:
MP bets 76.72 BB and is all-in
Hero [66.5 BB] ??

What would you do here? At which point would you fold there?
V is a LAG and loves to triple barrel if the board runs out well for him. I think I could definitely find a fold on the turn because I can have all sets, 54s sometimes, QJhh and QThh, A6hh or A6dd blocking AA and AQ. I don't know how many PP I should call here with given the aggressive V.
Once I called with 76s on the turn and he keeps barreling his value range becomes very narrow, something like 66, 33, 22, AQ+, QQ+.

Another thing to note was his timing: he snap shoved river. I think he would at least consider checking with AA or KK right?

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,777 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I would fold on the turn. Your likely capped at QhJh type hand for 1 pair so even AQ he can take you to value town. He has to worry only about KhQh, KhJh ..... I guess two combos. If you slow played a set then well done.
  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    Seems kind of nitty to me to fold so many combos OTT. So I should only call with sets and KhQh, KhJh?
    What if V has a wide bluffing range?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,777 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Seems kind of nitty to me to fold so many combos OTT. So I should only call with sets and KhQh, KhJh?
    What if V has a wide bluffing range?

    Lag is raising from 3rd position. Which is basically suited broadways 22+ Axs+ how many bluffs can he really have?
  • PBF_ProdigyPBF_Prodigy Red Chipper Posts: 554 ✭✭✭
    edited July 13
    3-bet pre-flop!!! This is a pretty horrible pre-flop flat (pardon my harshness) and probably reveals a lot of mistakes with your general pre-flop philosophy.

    @Wiki_Leaks!
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,777 ✭✭✭✭✭
    3-bet pre-flop!!! This is a pretty horrible pre-flop flat (pardon my harshness) and probably reveals a lot of mistakes with your general pre-flop philosophy.

    @Wiki_Leaks!

    3bet preflop without knowing villains 4bet tendencies?
  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 543 ✭✭✭
    3-bet pre-flop!!! This is a pretty horrible pre-flop flat (pardon my harshness) and probably reveals a lot of mistakes with your general pre-flop philosophy.

    @Wiki_Leaks!

    Since op gave a reason for his flat, i went the as played route. Personally im this formation im almost never flatting and likely folding almost always (well maybe 3bet 2c2s :) )
    Austin wrote: »
    3-bet pre-flop!!! This is a pretty horrible pre-flop flat (pardon my harshness) and probably reveals a lot of mistakes with your general pre-flop philosophy.

    @Wiki_Leaks!

    3bet preflop without knowing villains 4bet tendencies?

    Op did say utg was tight which likely decreases our fold equity.

    Fearing a 4bet does not seem like a compelling enough reason to forgo a 3bet.
  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »

    Lag is raising from 3rd position. Which is basically suited broadways 22+ Axs+ how many bluffs can he really have?

    That's a good question and we really don't know. On the river I gave V this range:

    ke3gtaaxkj4t.png

    We have 37% equity against this range. Thoughts?
  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    3-bet pre-flop!!! This is a pretty horrible pre-flop flat (pardon my harshness) and probably reveals a lot of mistakes with your general pre-flop philosophy.

    @Wiki_Leaks!

    I think I would prefer a fold over a 3bet tbh.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,777 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Wiki_Leaks wrote: »
    3-bet pre-flop!!! This is a pretty horrible pre-flop flat (pardon my harshness) and probably reveals a lot of mistakes with your general pre-flop philosophy.

    @Wiki_Leaks!

    Since op gave a reason for his flat, i went the as played route. Personally im this formation im almost never flatting and likely folding almost always (well maybe 3bet 2c2s :) )
    Austin wrote: »
    3-bet pre-flop!!! This is a pretty horrible pre-flop flat (pardon my harshness) and probably reveals a lot of mistakes with your general pre-flop philosophy.

    @Wiki_Leaks!

    3bet preflop without knowing villains 4bet tendencies?

    Op did say utg was tight which likely decreases our fold equity.

    Fearing a 4bet does not seem like a compelling enough reason to forgo a 3bet.

    Why can't hero just flat and play postflop? 85% of the time he will miss pretty badly, but the other 15% he can make some moves by raising on boards that favor his range. Feels like people want to get into preflop wars instead of embracing postflop play.

    With that said I'm ok with the 3bet preflop, just don't think flatting is terrible.
  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 543 ✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Wiki_Leaks wrote: »
    3-bet pre-flop!!! This is a pretty horrible pre-flop flat (pardon my harshness) and probably reveals a lot of mistakes with your general pre-flop philosophy.

    @Wiki_Leaks!

    Since op gave a reason for his flat, i went the as played route. Personally im this formation im almost never flatting and likely folding almost always (well maybe 3bet 2c2s :) )
    Austin wrote: »
    3-bet pre-flop!!! This is a pretty horrible pre-flop flat (pardon my harshness) and probably reveals a lot of mistakes with your general pre-flop philosophy.

    @Wiki_Leaks!

    3bet preflop without knowing villains 4bet tendencies?

    Op did say utg was tight which likely decreases our fold equity.

    Fearing a 4bet does not seem like a compelling enough reason to forgo a 3bet.

    Why can't hero just flat and play postflop? 85% of the time he will miss pretty badly, but the other 15% he can make some moves by raising on boards that favor his range. Feels like people want to get into preflop wars instead of embracing postflop play.

    With that said I'm ok with the 3bet preflop, just don't think flatting is terrible.

    Imo this thought process is pretty conventional but has several holes.

    people seem to overestimate their ability to traverse postflop, particularly multiway spots where they are always in the worst relative position, often out of absolute position, and without initiative.

    Your flatting range vs an utg open will rarely have advantage.

    “Preflop wars” print money when you construct properly.

    You can navigate postflop even better as the 3bettor than as a flatter.

    We capitalize on fold equity and equity denial. Flatting does neither of these.

    You seem to be considering both all of the good things that can happen when you flat and the bad that comes from a 3bet, while ignoring both the bad that comes from flatting and the good that comes from a 3bet.

    Remove the bias. Follow the game tree through both a flat and a 3bet.
  • PBF_ProdigyPBF_Prodigy Red Chipper Posts: 554 ✭✭✭
    I think I would prefer a fold over a 3bet tbh.

    It's a mix, from a sheer math perspective.
  • PBF_ProdigyPBF_Prodigy Red Chipper Posts: 554 ✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »

    3bet preflop without knowing villains 4bet tendencies?

    To be honest, I have no idea what any of my opponent's 4-bet tendencies are

    1) because you need a giant sample size for reliable data,

    2) I pay embarrassingly low attention to my opponents unless I'm playing live, in which case #1 is almost never true (I don't do this on purpose, I just am playing 5 tables).

    3) I just look at my opponent's opening % and map a GTO chart onto it and do that and try not to play timing games except in case of #2

    4) all populations suck way more against 3bets than they do flats, so as long as I know my 3-bet isn't -EV compared to flatting or folding, I'm going for it.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,777 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @Wiki_Leaks & @PBF_Prodigy

    Fair points. Can't disagree and I lean towards agreeing with what your saying. The one downside I see is the low SPR being the 3bet will likely be a squeeze and be 12-15bb preflop. If UtG calls pot will be roughly 30bb with an SPR of less than 3. On the bright side, doesn't give villain much room to 4bet bluff and his 4bet range will be very value heavy.

    I think the leak I have is when I 3bet a hand like this and get a board like this I am kind of stuck on what to do. Cbet likely 12bb and when I get raised I believe it to be 24 combos of JJ+ and only like 3 combos of flushes. Despite using smaller sizing I think I leak money in 3bet pots post flop.

    Thoughts?
  • PBF_ProdigyPBF_Prodigy Red Chipper Posts: 554 ✭✭✭
    If anyone tries to put in money against me thinking I have pocket Kings when I have pocket two's, I'm pretty sure I can find a fold button pretty quickly. I can't comment on your game but I know that 3-betting and c-betting here with a range that includes 22 some percentage of the time is profitable.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 691 ✭✭✭
    One reason for calling pre flop with absolute position is that there are so many flops you can put pressure on OR... like this one

    I would be raising this flop with a very large chunk of my range including a fair amount of bluffs. I would continue on almost any turn card with my made hands and semi bluffs

    OR will have a hard time contiuing unless at very top of range. In fact you are pushing them to hang in with their draws that when bricked on river your one pair hands are going to be good
  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    Thanks for all your comments! I like the idea of raising the flop as there are not many runouts we feel comfortable calling down (like this one).
    Sully wrote: »
    I would be raising this flop with a very large chunk of my range including a fair amount of bluffs. I would continue on almost any turn card with my made hands and semi bluffs
    Is this also a runout you would triple barrel or would you check back river here?

    What if the player in front of me would have called the cbet?



  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    I called his river shove:
    V showed ATo (no hearts)
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,777 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I called his river shove:
    V showed ATo (no hearts)

    One of those hands where you make money, but long run lose against his range imo.
  • PBF_ProdigyPBF_Prodigy Red Chipper Posts: 554 ✭✭✭
    Sully wrote: »

    I would be raising this flop with a very large chunk of my range including a fair amount of bluffs. I would continue on almost any turn card with my made hands and semi bluffs

    Against a variety of c-betting strategies it's more important to have a protected calling range than a protected raising range here.
  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    So I should slowplay sets sometimes, right?
    Should I also have KK+ here sometimes?
  • PBF_ProdigyPBF_Prodigy Red Chipper Posts: 554 ✭✭✭
    No, because you should be 3-betting KK. <3

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file