Ignorant question?

DeucesWildDeucesWild Red Chipper Posts: 62 ✭✭
edited July 12 in Live Poker Hands
Hi All,

I am a beginner at best with poker,but I have a question regarding something I've seen consistently when looking at the odds of different hands (pocket pair, gut-shot, Flush etc.). It was my understanding that the rule of 4/2, is to multiply your outs by 4 after the flop, and by 2 after the turn to determine the poker odds.

My question is, that I see on multiple websites, the percentages or odds change to about half after the flop...yet, after the turn they tend to stay the same or change very slightly. I was never strong in math, so I feel this question may be quite silly...but I was under the impression that odds should change much more than 0.3% (arbitrary figure) after the turn. Am I wrong in this line of thought?

Comments

  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 198 ✭✭✭
    It's a little tough to determine what exactly you are asking. Basically, if you have the same amount of outs on the flop as you do on the turn, the chance of you making your hand will go down by about half because you have one chance to make your hand rather than two. Obviously there is a little bit more that goes into it, but that is the quick and dirty explanation.
  • DeucesWildDeucesWild Red Chipper Posts: 62 ✭✭
    edited July 12
    Roblivion wrote: »
    It's a little tough to determine what exactly you are asking. Basically, if you have the same amount of outs on the flop as you do on the turn, the chance of you making your hand will go down by about half because you have one chance to make your hand rather than two. Obviously there is a little bit more that goes into it, but that is the quick and dirty explanation.

    You're right, I agree my post was difficult to understand. I looked up the odds chart I originally found to hopefully add context. Below is one example of what I mean:

    According to this site (http://www.thepokerbank.com/tools/odds-charts/percentage/), if you have a gutshot on the flop, you have an overall 16.5% chance to take it down. It then states "1 card to come (turn)" it changes from 16.5% to 8.7%. Finally it says again "1 card to come (river)" which changes from 8.7% to 8.5%...this is where I am confused, as I thought the change from the turn to river would be about 4%, but it's showing 8.5%. Again, I can be thinking of this completely wrong out of ignorance. As always, thanks for reading and commenting!
  • NYI80283NYI80283 Red Chipper Posts: 50 ✭✭
    DeucesWild wrote: »
    Roblivion wrote: »
    It's a little tough to determine what exactly you are asking. Basically, if you have the same amount of outs on the flop as you do on the turn, the chance of you making your hand will go down by about half because you have one chance to make your hand rather than two. Obviously there is a little bit more that goes into it, but that is the quick and dirty explanation.

    You're right, I agree my post was difficult to understand. I looked up the odds chart I originally found to hopefully add context. Below is one example of what I mean:

    According to this site (http://www.thepokerbank.com/tools/odds-charts/percentage/), if you have a gutshot on the flop, you have an overall 16.5% chance to take it down. It then states "1 card to come (turn)" it changes from 16.5% to 8.7%. Finally it says again "1 card to come (river)" which changes from 8.7% to 8.5%...this is where I am confused, as I thought the change from the turn to river would be about 4%, but it's showing 8.5%. Again, I can be thinking of this completely wrong out of ignorance. As always, thanks for reading and commenting!

    On the flop, with 2 cards to come you multiply by 4. On the turn, with 1 card to come you multiply by 2.

    I believe where you are getting confused is if you are on the flop and there is only 1 card to come. For example you are facing a bet on the flop which you intend to call, then you face a bet on the turn you intend to fold to. Even though at present time we are on the flop, we are only going to get 1 card because we plan on folding to the turn bet. So if we are on the flop and we are only seeing one card, we multiply by 2.

    So gutshot on the flop = 4 outs. If we plan on seeing it through to the river to try and make our straight we multiply by 4. 4 X4 = 16%. If we are on the turn we multiply by 2. 4X2 = 8%. If we are on the flop , we know our opponent over C-bets and only double barrels when he is very strong we may decide to call the flop and fold to his turn bet. In this case we multiply by 2. 4X2 = 8%.
  • DeucesWildDeucesWild Red Chipper Posts: 62 ✭✭
    You are absolutely right, that is exactly what was confusing me. Thank you for clarifying, it makes total sense now. The ending example on your last post reminds me of what Jonathan Little said in his webinar, which was "Value betting with the intention of folding to a raise, is a still a profitable and wise move"
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Rule of 4 - 2 works well with 12 outs or less.

    Example 15 outs
    :7H: :6H: on :9H: :8H: :2C: is not 60%.

    Instead use 15 x 3 + 9 which is 54%, gets you a little closer. (Outs x 3 + 9)
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 1,027 -
    Yeah important point. With superdraws the short-cut rule and reality diverge pretty badly. This is a bigger issue in PLO for obvious reasons.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • DeucesWildDeucesWild Red Chipper Posts: 62 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Rule of 4 - 2 works well with 12 outs or less.

    Example 15 outs
    :7H: :6H: on :9H: :8H
    Instead use 15 x 3 + 9 which is 54%, gets you a little closer. (Outs x 3 + 9)

    Huge point, seeing as what I have been reading so far, promotes estimating for the most part. Unless as you just mentioned we have 15+ outs, which makes total sense.

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